By Dawn's Early Light

Freedom is on the March

Publius Pundit is doing an exceptional job of following the events in Lebanon.  How can one not be encouraged by the resignation of the Syrian backed Lebanese government?

"Freedom is on the March" in the Middle East.  We are seeing a domino effect because of the US led invasion and liberation of Iraq.  To date, the benefits are:

• An emerging Iraqi democracy, free elections, and the building of a constitution
• Libya declaring its nuclear weapons program and dismantling it, providing the US and Britain with a detailed view of the international black market for nuclear weapons material from Pakistan, Iran and North Korea
• Palestinian elections and a move towards a negotiated peace with Israel
• The potential for elections in Egypt
• The rejection of Syrian involvement in Lebanon by the people and a desire for true democratic reform

I think 2005 and 2006 will be years of major progress towards democratic reform in the Middle East.  The countries of the Middle East do not operate in a vacuum, and people who are not free to say, think or practice their religion will become more vocal as they see freedom extended in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I am optimistic about the future of the Middle East. (I know, a risky opinion to voice).  I am an Idealist working within a Realism framework.  These are truly exciting times.

Congratulations Hillary!

I am glad to see Ms. Hillary Swank won the Oscar for Best Actress for Million Dollar Baby.  Her performance was amazing and worthy of the award.  My wife and I were amazed by her performance and have done some blogging about it here. Roger Simon live blogged the event, which is much more valuable commentary from an insider. 

Morgan Freeman's acceptance of his Best Supporting Actor award was extremely gracious for Million Dollar Baby.  He is a man with incredible class.

The Incredibles is an outstanding family drama that I highly recommend and was very glad it won Best Animated Feature Film.  Thought the Shrek 2 scenes making fun of Starbucks patrons in Beverly Hills was hilarious.

Cate Blanchett was incredibly believable as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator.  Her award for Best Supporting Actress was well earned with her performance.

I really don't have anything to add to the discussion other than congratulations to the winners.

Egypt, Diplomacy and Freedom

Drudge has a link to an article on Sec. Rice postponing a visit to Egypt.

"A senior U.S. official, citing Rice's displeasure with the arrest and other internal actions taken by the Egyptian government, said change was needed and she wanted to see what steps were taken before going to Cairo. The official spoke only on condition of anonymity."

"The decision not to go apparently caught Egypt off-guard. The country's major pro-government newspaper, Al-Ahram, reported Friday that Rice would be in Egypt next Saturday."

Apparently, it would seem the message was heard load and clear in Cairo.  The AP today is reporting "Egypt's Mubarak Orders Election Reform".  Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt since Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981, who has never faced a competitive election, said the following key quotes:

"The election of a president will be through direct, secret balloting, giving the chance for political parties to run for the presidential elections and providing guarantees that allow more than one candidate for the people to choose among them with their own will," Mubarak said in an address broadcast live on Egyptian television.

The next step is for Egypt's Shura Council to amend "Article 76" of Egypt's constitution with the change then being put before the people.  The change to and vote on the constitutional changes could come within 9 weeks.

We should be patient and see if Egypt does reform, but the writing is on the wall in the Middle East.  It is hard to argue that this move would have been possible if it wasn't for the American invasion of Iraq, the Iraqis demonstrating their conviction in voting, and President Bush's commitment to spreading democracy that is at the heart of every foreign policy address he gives.

This Picture Sums Up US-German Diffences

This picture ironically sums up a good deal of why Americans and Germans, and Western Europeans for that matter, see the world differently (source: White House photo).

To put it into perspective, roughly 92% of Americans believe in God. As of 1992 only 56% of Germans feel the same. Americans attend church or a religious service nearly every week at a 41%-44% rate. Only 10% of Germans attended church regularly. (German statistics here)

Dennis Prager recently commented on the "Liberal Feelings vs. Judeo Christian Values" with an insightful article of the religious battle here in the United States.  The same argument can be extrapolated to our European neighbors, and ultimately it affects how different nations see the role of morality in their foreign affairs. 

Because the United States is still a religious nation, there is a clearer sense of right and wrong and less of a relativist moral view that the Europeans embrace.  This ironically strengthens US Idealism in its foreign policy and surprisingly leads to short term European Realism in Europe.  As this article in Germany's Der Spiegel magazine editorializes, even though it does not reach for the logical conclusion regarding America's religious beliefs affecting foreign policy, it asks the right question: "Could George W. Bush Be Right?"

Iraqi Elections Making a Diffence in the Middle East

New Sisyphus caught an important opinion article in the Washington Post entitled "Beirut's Berlin Wall" from David Ignatius that I overlooked and has a valuable post regarding it.

Mr. Ignatius met with a Lebanese leader, the Druze Muslim patriarch, Walid Jumblatt.  Mr. Jumblatt is not pro-American and had been a supporter of Syrian occupation of Lebanon until about a year ago. 

"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

By changing the regime in Iraq, changing an ideology of hate and repression in Afghanistan, supporting a democratically elected leader in Palestine, the internal dialog of religious leaders and opinion makers in the Middle East is loosening the power of the old autocratic regimes and proving Mr. Bush correct, that "freedom is embedded in everybody's soul."

There is good reason to be hopeful for change from the grass roots, from the people living in oppression in the Middle East.  "Freedom is on the march," and the more we do to support it, the safer we will be.

Bush Quotes in Germany

President Bush and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder had several public news conferences.  The first press conference really shed very little light, as far as I could see, on either US or German positions that are not already widely known (the text can be found here).

A far more interesting dialog was in a Q&A of young German professionals and the two leaders.  While the questions were interesting, President Bush's thinking about the US and Europe was revealing (text here):

"For years, there was this sense that we could tolerate tyranny for the sake of energy. And yet, beneath the surface of that policy lurked this hatred and feeling of oppression and frustration and hopelessness, which lent itself to an ideology of hatred that ended up manifesting their hatred on America.

And let me say something about September the 11th. I think this will help frame the conversation as we go forward. For some, September the 11th was a passing moment in history. In other words, it was a terrible moment, but it passes. For me, and my government, and many in the United States, it permanently changed our outlook on the world. Those two attitudes caused us, sometimes, to talk past each other, and I plead guilty at times. But as this conversation goes on, I want you to remember that point of view."

In a very good, quick statement, Pres. Bush summarized why the US and Western Europeans do not see eye to eye and are "talk[ing] past each other".  While Pres. Bush is an Idealist in many of his pronouncements on democracy and freedom, this is clearly a Realist assessment of different security concerns and economic interests.   

Qadhafi Speaks

Thanks to Austin Bay, I have found the enlightened wisdom of Libya's leader, Col. Muammar Qadhafi, in the form of a blog.  To save you spending the time enjoying the fine commentary, let me give you a few choice nuggets:

• On Turkey and the EU: "It is in Turkey's economic interest to be part of Europe. It is also in the interest of the Muslim world that an Islamic nation such as Turkey is within the European Union, as a Trojan horse. On the other hand, it is in the interest of Europe that Turkey is part of NATO only as a military colony and a military base for the Alliance, but it is not in its interest that Turkey be part of the European Union. Turkey is a tree, which roots are in Asia, and only its branch that touches Europe."
• On North Korea: "Hence any attempt to unify the two Koreas internally or externally by force, or the threat to use force and terror, is a failure and should be eliminated. The Koreans ought to consider the matter seriously to assess losses of secession, the price of war and gloating of the enemies, alongside the much benefit of unity morally and maternally. Friends in the North should be more restrained and avoid some provocative behavior. The two parts should be united so as to guarantee the stopping of Nuclear programme in the North in return of withdrawing American troops from the South. When unity is achieved, the North does not need nuclear weapon any longer. No does the South need the American Army."

I would direct you to more of the site, but I think you get the idea.  I wonder if Col. Qadhafi has read Hugh Hewitt's book "Blog"?  No matter what you think about the Libyan strongman, you have to give him credit for being on the forefront of a new communication medium (and in three languages too).  Other than drawing attention to himself and his ideas, I wonder why he had it created?

President Bush at NATO HQ

Just a few observations from President Bush's speech in Brussels today after a NATO meeting. (The text of the speech is here, and a useful FAQ on NATO is here).  Secretary General De Hoop Scheffer gave a warm introduction.  He used the word "strong" 11 times in his introduction of the President.  Given what I read earlier from columnist Mark Steyn, NATO may be in long-term trouble.  I felt that Sec. Scheffer was trying to convince his audience that it is "strong", rather than stating what NATO truly is and will be.

First, let me start with interesting observations that President Bush made (President's comments in blue):

• of NATO's 26 members (Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States), 9 of them are of the former Cold War era "Warsaw Pact", all of which remember "a society that wasn't free".
• Pres. Bush alludes to certain members who take NATO for granted by saying, "One thing is for certain.  The newly admitted countries don't take NATO for granted. As a matter of fact, they add a vitality to the discussions that I find refreshing and hopeful."
• Pres. Bush sat next to invited guest and non-NATO member Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko saying, Yushchenko "...had just led a revolution, a peaceful revolution, based upon the same values that we hold dear.  And it was a remarkable moment, I thought."
• Pres. Bush extended the circle of NATO membership to President Yushchenko if Ukraine follows through on democratic reform. "We welcomed President Yushchenko, and reminded him that NATO is a performance-based organization, and that the door is open, but it's up to President Yushchenko and his government and the people of Ukraine to adopt the institutions of a democratic state."
• President Bush spoke with PM Blair and President Chirac about the EU plan to sell advanced military hardware to China and the US opposition, as outlined by Sec. Rice to the sale.  It sounds like the governments are still debating what ultimately will be sold and how much "a transfer of weapons would be a transfer of technology to China, which would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan."
• He also thanked each member nation that had sacrificed one of their own in combat.
• With respect to Iraq and the need to move forward, he is straightforward: "The major issue that irritated a lot of Europeans was Iraq.  I understand that. I can figure it out.  And the key now is to put that behind us and to focus on helping the new democracy succeed.  It's in our interests. It's in your country's interests.  It's in my country's interests that democracy take hold in the greater Middle East."
• To a reporter, Mr. Bush smartly replied, while advancing his spreading democracy idea: "Millions of people of voted in Afghanistan. I doubt many of you here were writing articles about, 'Oh, gosh, the elections in Afghanistan are going to be incredibly successful.' It didn't seem like it was possible, did it? But, yet, there's something in everybody's soul, in my judgment, that desires to be free.  And the people of Afghanistan showed that by the millions -- not by the handfuls, but by the millions -- when given a chance to vote. Same in Iraq.  And there was an election in Ukraine -- two elections in Ukraine.  And then there was the election in the Palestinian Territory. Freedom is on the march, is the way I like to put it. And the world is better off for it.  And I look forward to continue to articulate how we can work together to keep freedom on the march."

NATO needs to become more political if it is to survive.  The European nations of the EU spend only 39% as much on defense as the US does (a subject of a future post I am working on).  The future of NATO does not lie in European contributions but rather expanding the membership to include formerly communist regimes, like the Ukraine, that can strengthen their new democracies by having a seat at the table of European security.  By this means, Russia loses more power to its "near-abroad" of former Soviet states and hopefully will better embrace democratic reform as well.

WP has a Great Story on Iraq

While the right side of the blogosphere has been a vocal and powerful mainstream media critic, it is important to point out pieces of good journalism.  The story of the much maligned Iraqi Army is a case in point. 

Four US Army soldiers died when their Humvee (without lights for security) missed a turn and fell down a concrete embankment into frigid water.  A US Air Force firefighter lost his life as well trying a rescue attempt to recover the bodies.  The Washington Post story, by Steve Fainaru, gives a great detailed account of brave actions and growing respect between the US and Iraqi forces:

"What happened then, however, has transformed the relationship between the Iraqi soldiers and the skeptical Americans who train them. Using a tool they welded themselves that day at a cost of about $40, the Iraqis dredged the canal through the cold afternoon until the tan boot of Spec. Dakotah Gooding, 21, of Des Moines, appeared at the surface. The Iraqis then jumped into the water to pull him out, and went back again and again until they had recovered the last American. Then they stood atop the canal, shivering in the dark.

'When I saw those Iraqis in the water, fighting to save their American brothers, I saw a glimpse of the future of this country,' said Col. Mark McKnight, commander of the 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, which had overall responsibility for the unit in the accident, his eyes tearing."

The story is one of courage and honor about not leaving a fellow soldier behind.  It shows the best of humanity.  Abdul Mutalib, 34, one of the Iraqi Army soldiers who was in the first Gulf War, came with about 29 fellow soldiers to help after noticing US helicopters circling overhead.  He stripped down from his uniform and went in the freezing water to help the Americans.

"Asked why he now felt so strongly about helping the Americans, Abdul Mutalib said through an interpreter: 'These people come 10,000 miles to help my country. They've left their families, their children. When we get hurt, they help treat us and take us to hospitals. If we can give them something back, just a little, we can show our thanks.'"

It is a long article in the Washington Post, but if you have the time, it is well worth it. 

Mr. Bush Goes to Belgium

President Bush gave a fine speech in Belgium today, attempting to bridge the gap in the Western democracies and to explain his vision for spreading democracy in the Middle East and beyond.

He opens with an anecdote about the warm accolades that Benjamin Franklin received on a visit to Europe over two centuries ago.  President Bush jokes:

"The observer went on to say, There was scarcely a peasant or citizen who did not consider him as a friend to humankind. I've been hoping for a similar reception.(LAUGHTER)

But Secretary Rice told me I should be a realist. (LAUGHTER)"

While the joke is funny in itself, there is a deeper message here and a foreshadowing of comments to follow.  Bush is playing on the Idealism/Realism theme that I blogged about last week.  After a good reminder of the shared accomplishments of the US and Europe, including D-Day, liberation of death camps, a democratic post-war Western Europe, and the fall of the Berlin Wall, President Bush states:

"In a new century, the alliance of Europe and North America is the main pillar of our security....Seizing this moment requires idealism; we must see in every person the right and the capacity to live in freedom. Seizing this moment requires realism; we must act wisely and deliberately in the face of complex challenges. And seizing this moment also requires cooperation, because when Europe and America stand together, no problem can stand against us."

President Bush is echoing Dr. Rice's comments on her way to Ireland.  It is clear by this example that the State Department and White House are of one mind when it comes to their strategic vision for a new world order. Idealism is required of Europeans to think beyond their borders, to envision a world where liberty is spread and freedom enjoyed.  Realism is the strategy for creating a lasting partnership and system, including hard and soft power, to spread democracy in a complex Middle East.

President Bush signals his desire to see two democratic states, that of Israel and Palestine, "living side by side in peace and security".  To the leaders of the Middle East he says:

"Arab states must end incitement in their own media, cut off public and private funding for terrorism, stop their support for extremist education, and establish normal relations with Israel."

All of the above ideas would require the focus to be removed from the current Arab government policy of "blame Israel" or blame the West and increase internal scrutiny on their own failing regimes.  Later in the speech President Bush says,

"Governments must invest in the health and education of their people, and take responsibility for solving problems instead of simply blaming others. Citizens must choose to hold their governments accountable. "

I will be interested to see if the Bush administration puts energy behind the above declaration. 

To loud applause the President states that Palestine should be "contiguous".  This will be a contentious proposal to the Israelis.  Bush is engaged in the "road map" to peace for this idealistic reason:

"We also know that a free and peaceful Palestine can add to the momentum of reform throughout the broader Middle East."

If the Palestinians are free, why not the Saudis, the Persians or the Syrian people?  I suspect that President Bush will work hard in his second term to establish a democratic Palestinian state.  He encourages men and women in the Middle East to embrace reform and progress, noting that our own history is still working through expanding freedom to women and minorities.

"Yet while our expectations must be realistic, our ideals must be firm and they must be clear. We must expect higher standards from our friends and partners in the Middle East."

This is a clear message to our friends, not our enemies, that we have expectations for greater progress and freedom from their regimes.  He calls on the Saudis and Egyptians to allow their people to determine their future. President Bush lends support to the Lebanese in their desire to have Syrian troops leave.  He points to the success of elections in Karbul, Ramallah and Baghdad and " without Syrian interference, Lebanon's parliamentary elections in the spring can be another milestone of liberty."

His main thrust and logic in his argument for greater European cooperation is to link the current conflict to the Europeans' own history. 

"Across the Middle East, from the Palestinian territories to Lebanon to Iraq to Iran, I believe that the advance of freedom within nations will build a peace among nations.  And one reason for this belief is the experience of Europe. In two world wars, Europe saw the aggressive nature of tyranny and the terrible cost of mistrust and division.

In the Cold War, Europe saw the so-called stability of Yalta was a constant source of injustice and fear. And Europe also saw how the rise of democratic movements like Solidarity could part an iron curtain drawn by tyrants. The spread of freedom has helped to resolve old disputes, and the enlargement of NATO and the European Union have made partners out of former rivals.

America supports Europe's democratic unity for the same reason we support the spread of democracy in the Middle East: because freedom leads to peace.  America supports a strong Europe because we need a strong partner in the hard work of advancing freedom and peace in the world.

A democratic Middle East promotes security and peace, just as Europe has proved.  While the left will argue yet again that democracy is foreign to the Arab world, the recent elections in three Middle Eastern countries and protests in Lebanon suggest otherwise.

President Bush lends support for the EU to better integrate Yushenko's Ukraine into Europe, and thanks our Polish friends for their help in the Orange Revolution.

He has tough words for Russia with their backsliding on democracy and calls for the Europeans to put this issue at the "heart" of their discussions with Russia.

Credit must be given Mr. Bush for the following line:

We must reject anti-Semitism from any source, and we must condemn violence such as we have witnessed in the Netherlands.

It is encouraging that the leader of the free world speaks out on the death of Theo Van Gogh (Roger Simon should be happy as well as all of us who condemn anti-Semitism).

I will let the end of his speech speak for itself, giving a good defense of the US-European alliance and explaining why we must go the distance in our pursuit of expanding democracy.

Our alliance has the ability and the duty to tip the balance of history in the favor of freedom. We know there are many obstacles and we know the road is long. Albert Camus said that freedom is a long-distance race. We're in that race for the duration.

And there is reason for optimism. Oppression is not the wave of the future; it is the desperate tactic of a few backward-looking men.

Democratic nations grow in strength because they reward and respect the creative gifts of their people. Freedom is the direction of history, because freedom is the permanent hope of humanity.

America holds these values because of ideals long held on this continent. We proudly stand in the tradition of the Magna Carta, the Declaration of the Rights of Man, and the North Atlantic Treaty. The signers of that treaty pledged to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their people's founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law.

In this new century, the United States and Europe reaffirm that commitment and renew our great alliance of freedom. May God bless you all.