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April 08, 2005

Comments

Dan

Great post as always.

Perhaps the most important role Taiwan could play is ceasing to be a virtual nuclear state. Allied Cold War doctrine called for a nuclear deterant when the conventional foes of the enemy were stronger -- NATO used this in Europe and Pakistan used this against India.

Such a nuclear deterant does not require a sophisticated delivery mechanism. The United States developed portable nuclear weapons which were pre-positioned with human operatives behind enemy lines (in strategic crossroads in Poland, for example).

A Taiwanese ability to cause significant harm to the People's Republic regardless of Beijing's ability to overwhelm Taiwanese convention forces may be the solution the island nation needs.

The Redhunter

Nice analysis. Taiwan is another country that seems to take US protection for granted. How to "encourage" them to spend more on their own is not clear to me.

Your analysis focused on hardware. What do you think about C4I, training, or doctrine as regards the PLA/PLAN vs the ROC? My understanding is that the PLA/PLAN is still considerably behind the US in this regard, but I'm not sure about the ROC.

The Redhunter

One more question. A Naval War College paper I read speaks of a military "window of opportunity" for China between now and maybe 2008. The thesis is that if current trends continue US capabilities will pull us farther ahead of China by the end of the decade, and this will continue. This is based on C4I capabilities as well as the advent of more precision-guided munitions. Do you agree?

Second, what effect do you think the 2008 Olympics in Beijing will have? My thoughts are that China would want to wait until after the games to make a move, as to do so before would risk a massive boycott. Also, like all totalitarian nations (Germany 1936) they would use the games to showcase their state and demoralize Taiwan. Your thoughts?

Dan

Redhunter,

Taiwan is in a similar situation to cold war Europe or Pakistan. Their natural threat has a much larger production capacity and overmatch their in-theatre production. The solution is similar: nuclear terror updated with 4GW doctrine.

However, outmatching Taiwan may be the easier part. China has a very-short-term and very-long problem in any invasion. Their army is useless unless it is positioned in Taiwan, and the US Navy is positioned to prevent any sizeable invasion.

Second, occupation itself is useless if Taiwan would gain independence anway. An invasion of Taiwan that seriously harms China's economy does more harm than good for Beijing, because it decreases the economic logic for union and increases the chances for success for insurgency/popular unrest.

I think it is more likely that Taiwan will use the Olympics than China. What if Taiwan declares independence a month prior to the Olympics? That makes much more sense than China invading immediately before or after.

The Redhunter

Thank you for your response, you've given me much food for thought. I hadn't considered the possibility that Taiwan might declare independence just prior to the Olympics. That would certainly put China in a quandry, as they could hardly attack at that time.

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GodBlogCon '06

The Influentials

  • Coming Anarchy
    A brilliant 3 blogger site with a global perspective and sound thinking on events of the day.
  • Hugh Hewitt
    Radio Host, Intellectual, Conservative, Evangelical, Blogger
  • InstaPundit (Glenn Reynolds)
    The central blogosphere source
  • James Lileks
    Family Man, Inspired and Witty Columnist, an Inspiration and Patriot
  • Mickey Kaus
    Center Left, Connected, Blogger, Took the Boeing
  • Powerline
    Keeping the MSM in check, Smart Intelligent Political Analysis
  • Publius Pundit
    The single best place on the web for a democracy roundup of world events.
  • Real Clear Politics
    Center Right, best political website, Election polls & Analysis
  • Roger L. Simon
    Center Left, Supporter of the GWoT
  • Simon's World
    "East Meets Westerner" - Simon, an Aussie living in Hong Kong has Asia covered with great links and commentary.
  • The Belmont Club
    Acute Analysis of the GWoT, America's Friend
  • Threats Watch
    Excellent analysis by Steve Schippert and Marvin Hutchens about national security issues around the globe.
  • Tod Bolsinger
    husband, father, pastor, author, professor, adventure lover, and triathlete (non political)
  • Winds of Change
    Liberty. Discovery. Humanity. Victory. - The Vanguard on the GWoT

Alliance

Blogs of Note

  • Between Worlds
    By blogger Bruce Chang, Between Worlds covers Asian-American relations with a piercing insight.
  • Blogs for Condi
    Interested in Condi Rice? This is the site for you with excellent links.
  • Citizen Z
    A centrist Democrat with sensible analysis of domestic and world affairs.
  • tdaxp
    Red State, National and Global Analysis from SD
  • EagleSpeak
    An insightful Milblog covering shipping, sea lanes and logistics and the war on terror.
  • The Adventures of Chester
    One of the finest MilBlogs with great links and indepth coverage
  • Little Red Blog
    Covering democratic movements around the world
  • MeiZhongTai
    An interesting blog on America-China-Tawain
  • The Acorn
    Indian foreign policy, and current affairs in the subcontinent
  • One Free Korea
    An opinionated blog on the need for regime change in North Korea with excellent analysis.
  • Quill News
    Editor, writer, ex-oil manager, ex-reporter with a good deal of thoughts on foreign policy
  • Election Projection
    Some of the best US domestic election coverage around run by a Scott a man of true character
  • The Word Unheard
    A former US Marine with a passion for "Foreign Policy, National Defense, Politics and the Media" living in NJ
  • The Red Hunter
    Covering Freedom & Democracy and America's interests in the War on Terror
  • WILLisms
    An extremely witty and beautifully presented poliblog on important issues of the day

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