By Dawn's Early Light

Rising Asia, but which model? (Part I)

Survey Intro - "Democratic Peace"

There is no greater challenge to American security and ensuring the advancement of individual liberties than winning the War on Terror.  Like the Cold War, the Greater War on Terror will be at least a "generational" struggle.  The ultimate end to the war cannot come by negotiation, treaty or unilateral withdrawal from the field of battle.  Victory can only be achieved through the advancement of democratic principles around the world, the ending of regimes that support and supply terrorists, and the encouragement of liberty in every part of the globe.  This belief in "Democratic Peace" or the notion that democratic nations do not war against one another and have far more stable relations has a long-proven record of empirical success.  This author strongly believes that free people around the world can safeguard and defend their own freedom by advancing freedom for others. 

Based on this premise, I will engage with you, the readers, in a multi-part series on regional and global perspectives on how best to spread Democratic Peace.

Survey Part I - Democratic Peace in Asia

While China and India are not considered the center of gravity in the War on Terror, the two nations combined represent two-fifths of the world's population with dynamic and growing economies in the heart of Asia.  One of these two nations will become a regional hegemon within the next 20 years or so.  While similar in many respects, their systems of government represent two conflicting styles: communist rule, and a British-based democratic system.  How US foreign policy evolves with both nations and how they interact with each other and their neighbors will be a significant factor in ensuring security in the future.

India is a diverse democracy with over 216 different languages, 4 major religions, and a growing economy.  The United States is the number one market for Indian companies, capturing 21.2% of total trade, followed by China in second position with only 6.6% of total trade, while the US is the largest exporter to India [Source Economist].  India's GDP per capita is US$3,040 (Purchasing Power Parity "PPP").  The population of 1.1 billion is growing at a 1.5% rate.  Based on this rate of growth compared to China (see below), India will overtake China in population within approximately 20 years, when both countries have roughly 1.5 billion people.

China too is a diverse country, with a growing capitalist class and nationalist tendencies, especially concerning Taiwan and islands in the Pacific, with a centralized communist system of government.  China's GDP per capita is US$5,811(PPP) and has grown at a faster rate than its Indian neighbor.  The population of 1.3 billion is growing at a small 0.7% rate [Source Economist].

Both emerging nations benefit from a healthy educational system and governments focused on economic growth in a global economy.  While China has enjoyed greater economic success in the past two decades, Indian reforms are enhancing the country's outlook.  Energy is the catalyst for future economic growth, and ensuring its supply is vital to which country will ultimately succeed. This struggle is being witnessed in the CNOOC bid for Unocal and India's desire to build a pipline to Iran.  The edge goes to India, due to sharing with the US core democractic values that are a part of the "Democratic Peace" concept.

Indian Prime Minister Singh was invited to the US for a first-class reception earlier this month.  As a sign of respect and the importance the Administration is placing on the partnership, the President hosted only his fourth black tie formal dinner party, along with honor guard review, and the closest event to a royal reception that a country lacking in royalty could bestow.  The massive US diplomatic ovetures towards India [See Sec. Rice's efforts here, here and here] have set in motion a change in the balance of power of Asia. 

The US and India agreed on the following points [For a greater description see the White House]:

• Moving forward on the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP) to make India a "21st Century World Power" including civil nuclear energy transfers.
• A Revitalized U.S.-India Economic Dialogue Covering Trade, Finance, The Environment, And Commerce to promote trade between the democracies.
• A U.S.-India Energy Dialogue To Strengthen Energy Security And Promote Stable Energy Markets. 
• An Initiative To Enhance Joint Activities In Space Cooperation.
• A U.S.-India Global Democracy Initiative To Aid Developing Democracies. This is a part of the expanding liberty concept of Democratic Peace.
• A U.S.-India Disaster Response Initiative.
• A U.S.-India HIV/AIDs Partnership.
• A U.S.-India Agricultural Alliance.

While military sales were not announced, it is still likely that a growing relationship between the US and India will enhance, ultimately, India's robust defense capabilities.  This has already been seen on the civil side as India purchased a large order of jetliners from Boeing over a rival and public diplomatic push from Airbus and Jacques Chirac.

The US-India partnership, especially if it delivers on the civil nuclear technology while bringing India into an international inspection regime, will go a long way to supplying relatively cheap electricity to a growing industrial economy.  India's growth is also being supported by Japan, which is making large investments in their economy, in part to invest in an alternative to a potential Chinese rival. 

While the US has not publicly committed to supporting India's bid for a UN Security Council seat, the partnership is an important step in supporting an alternative development model in Asia that promotes liberty.  The best hope is that India does succeed in economic growth, thereby giving the Chinese people the desire of a free press and representative government, which is denied them by their current political leadership.

A stronger India will also be a deterrent to an increasingly nationalistic China.  Hopefully, the example of Hong Kong and an emerging Chinese middle class will create the necessary internal pressure to bring about substantive democratic reform.  To keep the focus elsewhere, the Chinese leadership has made Taiwan and Japan the domestic and international villains respectively.  A powerful India will temper regional aspirations from China.

Economic prosperity for the roughly 13% of India's population that is Muslim will be another reason for reform in the Middle East, from Egypt to Lebanon to the Gulf States.  With 2.4 billion people, ensuring and encouraging democracy in China and India is vital to securing our long-term freedom and influencing the South Pacific and thereby winning a front on the Global War on Terror. 

No Greater Joy

Last Monday, my world changed.  After some complications with the end of my wife's pregnancy, it was decided it was best to encourage the labor early.  At 8:48 pm, my dear, sweet Catherine Elizabeth was born!

While I have been looking forward to being a father for a long time, words cannot explain the joy I felt with God's precious gift to my wife and me.

While she was in the womb, I would tell her that "Daddy loves you!"  When she was first born and screaming while the nurses were cleaning her by my wife's bed with her eyes closed, I repeated the often said line.  She stopped crying, turned towards me and opened her eyes.  She grabbed onto my finger with all of her hand, and I was in heaven.  She is my daughter, and I love my precious girl.

I have never experienced this type of love.  I want to hold her forever and share with her how much I love her.  My wife and I are now home, and both mother and daughter are doing well. 

I look forward to getting to know this very special girl.

Thank you to my readers for your patience, and I look forward to posting again on the topics we all care passionately about.

The GWoT Hits London

The terror attacks in London today, composed of 4 separate bombings, with 3 to the London Underground and 1 to a commuter bus, during the G-8 summit in Scotland, is a painful and tragic reminder of the importance of fighting and winning the Global War on Terror.  I will post more on the subject as more information develops.  However, I would like to point you to President Bush's words from the G-8 Summit:

"The contrast between what we've seen on the TV screens here, what's taken place in London and what's taking place here is incredibly vivid to me. On the one hand, we have people here who are working to alleviate poverty, to help rid the world of the pandemic of AIDS, working on ways to have a clean environment. And on the other hand, you've got people killing innocent people. And the contrast couldn't be clearer between the intentions and the hearts of those of us who care deeply about human rights and human liberty, and those who kill -- those who have got such evil in their heart that they will take the lives of innocent folks.

The war on terror goes on. I was most impressed by the resolve of all the leaders in the room. Their resolve is as strong as my resolve. And that is we will not yield to these people, will not yield to the terrorists. We will find them, we will bring them to justice, and at the same time, we will spread an ideology of hope and compassion that will overwhelm their ideology of hate."

The long-term question of the bombings is what effect it will have on the UK effort to prosecute the GWoT and the reaction of other industrialized powers.  In the meantime, my prayers and sympathies are with the families of the murdered and injured.

Other great sources for following events today:

• Google News
• Winds of Change (Bill Roggio's comments here)
• Instapundit
• The Command Post

According to the British Embassy in the US:

"Inquiries concerning US citizens should be directed to the US State Department. The telephone number is 1-888-407-4747.  The emergency hotline number for British citizens is 011 44 870 156 6344."

Update: Text of PM Tony Blair's comments here.

A Veteran's View of Freedom

My dad has a long-time friend who was his high school coach, a fellow missionary working with my dad's parents, and a decorated veteran of World War II, winning the Silver Star for bravery.  Charles D. Holsinger recounts his wartime service in the Pacific in his riveting book "Above the Cry of Battle" .

Recently Coach Holsinger sent my dad a letter enclosing a speech he gave on Memorial Day 2005, and, with his kind permission, I thought it might be fitting to reprint it for Independence Day 2005. 

"Back in history our forefathers searched for a fitting example for those who were killed fighting for their country.  They came up with the statement that stems from Jesus' sacrifice, 'He or she paid the ultimate sacrifice.'

When Betty and I went to the Philippines as missionaries, the American cemetery on the outskirts of Manila became a special place for me.  In appreciation for what the U.S. did for their country, the Filipino people dedicated land as a memorial for those who gave their all.  There are 17,000 plus white marble crosses.  There also is a tremendous colonnade with 32,000 plus names of those who are missing in action.  It is a stark reminder that freedom is free, but it is not cheap! 

I am a World War II survivor because of God's grace and the Bible, which also enabled me to maintain my sanity.  I memorized God's Word and made it a part of my life.  My foxhole verses at night were Psalm 4:8, Micah 7:8, and by day I lived by Proverbs 3:5,6.  Every morning I prayed, 'Lord, by life or death help me to be a good soldier.'

After Guadalcanal, a defining moment came in my life, when I was on the island of New Caledonia.  We didn't know it, but we were getting ready to take back the Philippines.  The colonel had called us together by companies, and the gist of his message was:  'Men, we will all go but we won't all come back.  Be ready to meet your Maker and see the chaplain.'  Lots of guys took New Testaments.

That night I struggled with the Lord.  Finally, I said, 'Ok, Lord, I'll go anyplace and do anything you want me to do, even be a preacher.'  I had such tremendous peace it scared me.  I ran back to my tent and told the six guys that were having a bull session what I had done.  One guy said, 'Hey, if you were going to be a preacher, what would you preach?'  And I explained to them the way of salvation.  One by one they excused themselves.

The first day in battle in the Philippines, those six men from our company were dead!  As I dug in that night, I knew in my heart that I had made the right decision.

I took away from the war two lessons:  First, Proverbs 16:10, 'Man makes his plans, but God directs his steps.'  And second, in God's plan there is no such a thing as big or little decisions.

People ask:  Do you ever think about the war?  Yes, do I ever!  Not one day passes that I don't think about it and the many comrades, who landed in the Philippines with General MacArthur and paid the ultimate price for freedom.  The thing that lingers most in my mind for these past 60 years are the men who died in my place.  I didn't plan it that way, but in God's plan it happened.  Let me explain.

Have you ever settled an issue by doing stone, paper and scissors?  Or did you flip a coin or draw straws to win or lose?  On more than one occasion God's plan for my life depended on whether I won or lost the toss.  There were decisions that were completely out of my control.  Go with me to the battlefield for two events.

On this certain night, as usual it was stone, paper, scissors time.  Three men would dig foxholes together on one side of the ridge and three on the other side.  I lost for my two partners, so it was a second choice for me.  Then the three of us had a debate over who should be at the front end of the ridge.  Because of seniority, the sergeant took the back position and assigned me to the front.  That night the enemy attacked.  The three men on the other side were killed, the sergeant and the man next to me were severely wounded, and I survived.  In the morning, another soldier came to my rescue and we cleaned out the enemy.

It was now time for promotion and I had seniority.  But the first sergeant had friends and promoted Andy to sergeant/squad leader and Hank to corporal/assistant squad leader.  We dug in that night, and saying I was somewhat angry was an understatement.  The two men were assigned to dig in at each end of the squad, and the rest of us dug in between the two squad leaders.  The plan for the next morning was that I would be the first scout out.  That night the Japanese launched an attack and a mortar shell hit on the edge of Hank's hole and his arm was blown off.  In the middle of the night I was promoted to assistant  squad leader, and I would bring up the rear rather than leading the attack.  We moved out at about 8:00 a.m. the next morning.  In a matter of minutes Andy and the two scouts were killed.  Under fire I was promoted to squad leader.  In about 12 hours I went from private to staff sergeant!

Three times I was the only one left in my squad.  The only explanation for me standing here is Proverbs 16:10, 'Man makes his plans but God directs his steps.'  The Lord had spared my life!

Would I do it again?  Yes.  If they'd take me, I'd go to Iraq tomorrow!"

May you all have a truly thankful and blessed Independence Day.