By Dawn's Early Light

Germany and Japan in the News

Two interesting articles in the news today:  one story covering Japan and the other Germany.  Both are about the future direction of diplomacy in their respective countries. 

• Koizumi reshuffles his Cabinet
  Three contenders for prime minister handed key posts
  Japan Times Online, November 1, 2005
• Germany to retain SPD's foreign policies
  Financial Times, November 1, 2005

Japan

After PM Koizumi's September 11 sweeping re-election, he vowed to promote people in his cabinet that would further his reforms.  Who he has not elevated is almost as key as who he has to compete for position within the LDP for Prime Minister next year.

"Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reshuffled his Cabinet on Monday and gave key posts to three possible contenders to succeed him in the country's top job.

Koizumi's choices raise the curtain on the race of prime ministerial hopefuls that is expected to culminate next September when his term as Liberal Democratic Party president expires.

Koizumi has pledged to step down at that time, which means he also will leave the job of prime minister.

The three anointed candidates for Koizumi's job are deputy LDP Secretary General Shinzo Abe, who was appointed chief Cabinet secretary; Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Taro Aso, who received the foreign minister's portfolio; and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who has been reappointed.

During a news conference later in the day, Koizumi said his new Cabinet was formed to push his reform agenda further, and hinted that he would not name anyone who does not follow his administrative reform initiatives as a possible successor.

'I don't think anyone who steps out of this reform line will become president (of the LDP),' he said, noting that he formed the new Cabinet to continue with his 'small government' reforms.

'Everyone who joined the Cabinet this time is eager not to stop the reforms,' the prime minister said."

Mr. Koizumi did not elevate a former cabinet member who was expected to repair ties with China if he had been elevated to a new post.

"Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, another politician considered a possible future prime minister, was not given a Cabinet post -- a development observers see as a setback for Fukuda.

He had been expected to try to improve strained diplomatic ties with China if he had been given a key Cabinet post.

In contrast, the appointment of Abe, a conservative with tough positions on North Korea and China, as chief Cabinet secretary could further harden Japan's diplomatic stances toward those countries.

Abe has repeatedly called for economic sanctions against North Korea over the unresolved issue of the abductions of Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s, while praising Koizumi's contentious visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which has long been a thorny issue in Japan's relationship with China and South Korea.

Abe said he has visited Yasukuni Shrine based on his private beliefs, hinting he will keep visiting the Shinto shrine even in his new capacity."

Mr. Koizumi has reshaped his government in his own reformist image that is mixed with a strong sense of Japanese pride.  His picks clearly indicate that Mr. Koizumi views China and North Korea as more than just strategic competitors. 

Germany

Ms. Angela Merkel, without the clear mandate Mr. Koizumi enjoys, has a government with a great deal more constraints in its foreign policy options.  The Financial Times reports:

"Germany's grand coalition will retain the central pillars of foreign policy established by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrat-led government, party officials in Berlin have told the Financial Times.

The SPD and Christian Democratic Union disagree over Turkey's bid for European Union membership, but there will be few big changes in Germany's stance on key issues such as relations with the US or with other EU partners under the coalition.

This was another success for the SPD, analysts said, although the bargaining process was thrown into confusion yesterday by the resignation of Franz Müntefering, SPD chairman.

Despite losing power in September's election, the party has nevertheless managed to block chancellor-in-waiting Angela Merkel's agenda in several areas, including economic reform, and now foreign affairs."

The focus of German foreign policy, according to the article, is on keeping Shroeder's policies alive and not providing a change in tone.

"Both parties said the coalition agreement would emphasise the central importance of Germany's relations with both the US and Nato, and that while Ms Merkel might set new foreign policy accents at certain points, the stress in the next few years would be on continuity."

This may be a big setback for Ms. Merkel.  However, she is a bright and capable politician.  I suspect that even without control of the foreign ministry, she will have a positive impact on US-German relations.

Nevertheless, the contrast between Mr. Koizumi's position and Ms. Merkel's is considerable.  Elections do matter, and the long-term alliance structure between the US and Japan is stronger for the will of the Japanese people than the results in Germany have supported.

Bill Roggio's Interview with Col. Davis

Bill Roggio, who is planning on going to Iraq to report firsthand on the Marines' efforts in the Anbar Province in Western Iraq, conducted an insightful interview with Colonel Stephen W. Davis, Commander of Marine Regimental Combat Team - 2.

There are many excellent nuggets in the interview, but Col. Davis' focus on seeing the big picture in waging the fight against the insurgents is clear.

"Saddam never controlled this region of Iraq. It is very tribal and fiercely independent. He sent in the army to kill and intimidate the population. He established two tribes in the region: the Salmanis and the Karabilah tribes, to further his goals and counterbalance existing dominating tribes. The Iraqis out west, particularly in Haditha, are well educated and are able to provide for their own needs. They have operated this way for centuries and can do so again with the proper security environment. We have a simple equation we use out here:

Presence = Security = Stability = the environment for self governance.

Our goal is to enfranchise the Iraqi security forces and allow them to provide for the security in the region and improve the lives of the Iraqi people. We will continue to conduct civil/military affairs operations to improve the lives of the Iraqi people. In Haditha, we are rebuilding the hospital the jihadis attacked with a car bomb and then used as a base of operation. We are working to enhance schools and other services vital to the people. We will continue to maintain a presence until the Iraqi Army is capable of standing on its own."

I highly recommend the article.

Please help Bill Roggio raise the $25,000 he needs to travel to Iraq and expand on his first-rate coverage of the men and women fighting the war and the global perspective of how the war for Iraq is progressing against the backdrop on the Global War on Terror.  Follow the link in the upper right.  For an updated list of Bill's needs for the trip, click here.  The list includes:

• Bullet proof vest with Level 4 API plates
• Tactical backpack
• Cold weather sleeping bag
• Rough weather/terrain computer
• Video camera
• Digital camera
• Extra batteries
• Audio recording device

It is a worthy cause supporting a man I know personally, who is a first-rate gentleman and brilliant thinker.  If you are inclined to and able to help (even just $15 will make a difference) please contribute.

US Economy Grows in Spite of Katrina

The US economy grew briskly in the 3rd quarter of this year, even with the record high fuel prices and the effects of Hurricane Katrina.  According to the Washington Post:

"The nation's gross domestic product, a broad measure of the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, up from a 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. That first estimate of GDP growth could be revised in coming months.

The gain in economic momentum largely reflected faster growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about two thirds of economic activity, the Commerce Department said.

The department said it could not quantify the hurricane's economic effects. The Labor Department said Thursday that 502,000 people have filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits because of the storms."

The underlying data, though, is maybe not quite as optimistic as the 3.8% number suggests.  Much of the growth is being driven from consumer spending, which is being accomplished now by borrowing, for Americans are spending greater than 100% of their disposable income.  This is not a trend that can continue indefinitely.

However, US growth rates are far better than Europe and Japan and have been so for over a decade.  The Economist writes concerning a new theory on why American growth has outpaced Europe that is an interesting argument.

What is Japan's Asian Strategy? (Part II)

Part I of this series can be found here.  The intro is republished below.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently completed his 5th visit to a Shinto war memorial shrine that contains the remains of 14 Class-A war criminals for WWII along with a memorial for over 2.5 million other Japanese that have died in the service of their country since 1869.  While Japanese opinion is roughly evenly split (according to this WaPo article) about the visits, Japan's neighbors are in complete agreement that the visits are inflammatory.  China, North Korea and South Korea have all condemned the visits.

So DEL asks, why did PM Koizumi visit the shrine?  (Part I)

And why did he choose now to do it? (Part II)

Bold Leader Builds Legacy with New Constitution

Mr. Koizumi cannot stand for re-election.  He just silenced the mavericks of the old guard in his own LDP party and destroyed his competition by calling for an election over Japan Post reforms and risking all to see his policy voted on last September 11.  With nothing to lose and a legacy to enshrine may explain the timing of Mr. Koizumi's shrine visit.

Note to Brazil and India: Blame France!

Trade negotiations are tough between nations.  World trade negotiations are extremely difficult, painful, and often very public.  The Doha round of trade talks began in Qatar in November 2001 and is set for another meeting in Hong Kong in December.  The trade talks have not produced substantial results in reducing barriers.  However, the US, in a Zurich meeting of five trade members -- the US, Australia, Brazil, the EU, and India -- proposed a massive cut in trade tariff ceilings.  The Economist reports:

"America can currently spend up to $19.1 billion on farm-production subsidies, which heavily distort trade. The EU can spend over $75 billion. Robert Portman, America's trade representative, offered to cut his country's limit by 60%, if the EU agreed to cut its permitted subsidies by 80%. Mr Portman also suggested limiting other subsidies, which do not distort trade as heavily, to 2.5% of the value of agricultural production. These two limits provide plenty of scope for creative accounting. Even as America lowers the ceiling on the most trade-distorting subsidies, some of this money will be reclassified as something else.

To the big agricultural exporters, such as Brazil, handouts to rich-world farmers, however galling, matter less than access to rich-world consumers. The trade powers appear to have settled on how to cut farm tariffs, if not by how much. Following a scheme outlined in July, tariffs will be divided into four “tiers”, according to their height. Those in the top tiers will be cut by more than those in the bottom. This week, Mr Portman proposed that rich countries should cut any tariff over 60% by as much as 90%, and any under 20% by more than half. No rich country should impose a tariff above 75%, he said."

This proposal woke up the trade negotiations and required a global response.  The US approach definitely supports a more liberal economic view of trade, and it is encouraging to see the US champion an approach that can help the developing world improve its economic lot while making a major American concession.

Background on Trade and the Developing World

It is common knowledge that the US, Japan and Europe have massive farm subsidies that are politically dear to the governments in power.  These subsidies greatly distort the ability of the developing nations to compete with their crops.  Additionally, it applies negative pressure on developing nation farmers as they cannot make their farms profitable, which, of course, does not benefit the developing nations.  The US, Japan and Europe then provide large subsidies, loans and grants to the developing world in attempting to move them out of their economically poor condition.  DEL understands this is a simplified argument and that it doesn't take into account other large inefficiencies in the developing world, like corruption and other policies and practices that keep the poorest people from rising out of their predicament.

Brazil and India wait on Europe

Brazil and India have much to gain by seeing the US proposal advanced.  This left first the potential for Japanese obstruction.  But given Koizumi's September electoral victory, which depended far more on urban support than rural support, it is likely that Japan can find some room for compromise.

The European Union responded with a proposal that is about half of what the US was proposing.  The Financial Times writes:

"The EU said its offer would cut European farm tariffs by an average of 46 per cent and reduce its highest tariffs by 60 per cent, against the 50 per cent cut tabled earlier this month.

However, the US said the average tariff cut would actually amount to 39 per cent and concluded: 'If the final Doha agreement on agriculture were to go no further than this, other areas would also be weak and the Doha round would not approach its potential for promoting development, opportunity and global economic growth.'

The US criticised in particular the EU's continued demand to maintain steeper tariffs on 8 per cent of its 'sensitive' imports. The US and others have called on the EU to reduce the list of sensitive products to only 1 per cent of the total and have also set 54 per cent as the minimum average tariff cut that the EU should offer."

While the EU proposal is not strong enough, the irony is that France's Chirac has vowed to veto even the EU proposal now on the table. FinFacts of Ireland reports:

"'It is totally out of the question for us to go a single step further,' Chirac told a news conference after the EU's informal summit at Hampton Court Palace, near London today. France would have a veto over any agreement, he added."

For background and analysis on Chirac and EU trade negotiator Mandelson's political maneuvers with each other, see this Financial Times piece.

So the EU response yesterday was to table the entire agriculture portion of the debate and move directly towards industry and services, an area of concern more to the developed world and less to the developing world. 

Blame France

The European Union, by French veto power, is the stumbling block in making major agriculture trade reform.  This apparent arrogance directly impacts Brazilian and Indian farmers and should be a good reminder of where French interests lie:  with Chirac's short-term best interests.  France's actions are like a spoiled child who has been indulged for far too long.  The US, Eastern European farming nations, Brazil and India, along with the African nations, should continue to apply pressure on France to reform its farm policies and rightfully link other issues of international relations to produce change.

A Blog to Read and Visually Enjoy

Are you looking for a new blog to check out and enjoy?  Something different from the normal poliblog?

WILLisms.com is a very interesting and witty site with stunning graphics.  WILLisms focuses on good public policy issues, like Social Security reform, debt, political and economic reform, politics and other important issues of the day.

I have updated my Blogs of Note to the right to include this well-run blog.  Stop by and peruse some of Will Franklin's musings.  Enjoy!

Chinese President Hu Travels to North Korea

Leading up to the upcoming November six-party talks over North Korea's nuclear weapons program, Chinese President Hu Jintao traveled to meet with Kim Jong Il.  The Associated Press reports:

"Hu's trip comes amid U.S. pressure on Beijing to do more to get its communist ally to stop developing nuclear weapons.

The agency said Hu arrived in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, at midday. Hu was accompanied by China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and other officials, it said.

Li spoke by phone Thursday night with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the foreign ministry said. It said they discussed international affairs but gave no details.

The visit is the first by a top Chinese leader since 2001 and is due to last through Sunday. It comes as China is trying to organize a new round of six-nation talks in November on demands that North Korea give up nuclear development."

This clearly demonstrates China's willingness to take a more complex and personal diplomatic approach to an issue that is at the forefront of US, Japan and South Korea's foreign policy discussions.  If China's president can reach an agreement with the North Korean leader that actually lasts through the talks, it will greatly increase China's position in Asia by helping solve an international issue of great importance.

Time will tell, but Dawn's Early Light wishes the Chinese well in their diplomacy to move North Korea away from giving the region one more reason for an increase in military spending.

Hugh Hewitt Gets the Global Picture

Hugh Hewitt has an excellent strategic piece in the op-ed section of today's New York Times.  Regardless of where you stand on the Harriet Miers nomination that was withdrawn yesterday, the effect of the fight will have long-term repercussions in the US Senate and ultimately on the interpretation of the law of the land throughout the country.

Mr. Hewitt argues that Republican senators, who won key elections in battleground states, are in a weaker position now that Ms. Miers' nomination was torpedoed from the right.

"But the Democrats' hand has been strengthened. Voting for or against Ms. Miers would have forced Senate Democrats to articulate a coherent standard for future nominees. Now, the Democrats have free rein.

The next nominee - even one who is a superb scholar and sitting judge who recently underwent Senate confirmation like Michael McConnell of the United States Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit, or a long-serving superstar like Michael Luttig of the Fourth Circuit - will face an instant and savage assault. After all, it "worked" with Ms. Miers. A claim of "special circumstances" justifying a filibuster will also be forthcoming. And will other nominees simply pass on the opportunity to walk out in the middle of a crossfire?"

President Bush is likely to put forward a strong Republican judge to solidify the base and remove the distraction from the presidency over another potentially failed nomination.  However, the Democrats are now in the dominant position in framing the debate to come over the next nominee.

Mr. Hewitt raises one other good point about a political change in our democracy from the way it was intended in our Constitution.

"The Miers precedent cements an extraconstitutional new standard for nominees. Had the framers intended only judges for the court, they would have said so. No doubt some Miers critics will protest a willingness to support nominees who have never sat on the bench, but no president is going to send one forward after this debacle."

By limiting the scope of future nominees to only federal judges currently on the bench, likely with a short record (politically this is becoming a requirement for confirmation), we actually weaken our democracy by giving more power over the Supreme Court to the Senate.  The Gang of 14 compromise is looking more and more like a disaster for the republic rather than its touted "saving".

What is Japan's Asian Strategy? (Part I)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently completed his 5th visit to a Shinto war memorial shrine that contains the remains of 14 Class-A war criminals for WWII along with a memorial for over 2.5 million other Japanese that have died in the service of their country since 1869.  While Japanese opinion is roughly evenly split (according to this WaPo article) about the visits, Japan's neighbors are in complete agreement that the visits are inflammatory.  China, North Korea and South Korea have all condemned the visits.

So DEL asks, why did PM Koizumi visit the shrine?  (Part I)

And why did he choose now to do it? (Part II)

The Balance of Power in East Asia

Japan, the key economic and military power in East Asia, now finds itself confronted by a China that for over a decade has experienced massive economic growth and double-digit defense growth (see DEL here).  Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently commented in China about their lack of transparency in their military buildup and questioned the purpose of developing their military capability (see DEL here and here).  China now has the world's third largest military budget after the US and Russia, according to Pentagon estimates. 

Japan has a population of 127 million that is set to decline within the next two years.  Given Japan's likely economic and potential military decline vis-a-vis China, why would they give the Chinese and democratic South Koreans a reason to stir popular unrest towards their neighbor?

Dawn's Early Light would argue that Prime Minister Koizumi's principal reason is to move Japan away from its pacifist history post World War II and to raise the discussion in Japan about its future security.  The visits have the effect of drawing negative Chinese and Korean reactions.  To build a stronger Japanese sense of self  defense is to pull the Japanese population together because of the external condemnation.

Only by raising Japanese domestic awareness to the potential growing threats in Asia can Japan move more aggressively to defend and promote its national interests.

Tomorrow: DEL looks at the timing of the visit and Japan's international position in Asia.

Update: For a detailed listing of the 14 Class-A war criminals mentioned above, Kushibo has a great summary. (November 25, 2005)

The US and Japan Solve Issue

The United States and Japan came to agreement on the repositioning of forces away from the island of Okinawa while preserving the overall US military capability and force structure.  The International Herald Tribune states:

"The United States and Japan agreed on a plan Wednesday to relocate a major American air base on the southern island of Okinawa, removing the biggest obstacle to talks on the redeployment of U.S. troops across the country.

According to the plan, the Futenma Marine Corps air base, located in the city of Ginowan, will move to an existing U.S. base, Camp Schwab, in a less populated area on the main island."

For background on why this has been a sensitive issue with the Japanese, one needs only to go back over the past decade and look at some horrific crimes by US servicemen against local Japanese girls and women.

Three US soldiers were convicted of raping a 12 year old girl in 1995.  Incidents of rape have surfaced in the news in 2002 and 2003 against the local Okinawans.  With up to 47,000 US soldiers in Japan and the majority on the island, the possibility for future incidents is high.

The Australian reports that the US military gave in to the Japanese in arriving at the compromise.  The US initially wanted to build the airstrip over a reclaimed coral reef, but the Japanese balked at the potential environmental impact.

"The Futenma decision appears to have been achieved by US concessions.

"The US side, taking into consideration the importance of the Japan-US alliance ... have accepted the most recent Japan Defence Agency proposal and plan for the relocation of the US Marine Corps at Futenma," lead American negotiator Richard Lawless told reporters yesterday....

About half the 50,000 US Forces in Japan personnel are deployed on Okinawa, a territory that was controlled by the US military for 27 years following the end of the Pacific war and remains a location of high strategic value because of its proximity to Taiwan and mainland China."

Why does this story interest Dawn's Early Light?  By attempting to remove a regular domestic political and social thorn in the side of US-Japanese relations, the two countries can remove a source of friction and gear up for future regional threats.  These threats are more likely to come from North Korea or China.  Additionally, it will make President Bush's trip to Japan easier on November 16. 

The US and Japan are serious about improved relations (as noted before here and here).  Given the rising importance of the Asia region, this compromise is good news for both sides.

Update: The Washington Post has a more detailed account of some of the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that is critical to DEL's point above about moving the relationship forward.

"'There was a sense of emergency that not reaching agreement on the issue, a central part of the U.S.-Japan relationship, would seriously damage relations,' Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told reporters.

Despite the accord, U.S. dismay at the pace of the talks was evident. The head of the U.S. delegation, Richard Lawless, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian & Pacific affairs, suggested Tuesday that the difficulties over such issues as Futenma had delayed a broader reshaping of the U.S.-Japan alliance. The United States has come to view the alliance as a cornerstone of regional security as China assumes a more assertive stance and North Korea is presumed to have become a nuclear-armed threat.

'We have to realize that we no longer have the luxury of interminable dialogue over parochial issues,' said Lawless, speaking at a Tokyo conference sponsored by the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

'If we are to bring the alliance to where it needs to be in the 21st century,' Lawless said, 'then we need to dramatically accelerate, across the board, to make up for the time lost to indecision, indifference and procrastination.'"

The US is serious about Asia and apparently Japan is on the road to be in agreement.  US and Japan need to be of one mind to tackle the issues of national security that will affect both nations directly as time moves on with the Global War on Terror.