By Dawn's Early Light

Kim Jong-il in a Bunker Listening to the Smiths

"ASK ME, ASK ME, ASK ME
Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb
the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together" - The Smiths' song 'Ask'

On America's Independence Day, the North Korean Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il, attempted and succeeded in some fireworks of his own, with a failed ballistic missile launch.  I couldn't help but imagine frizzy hair, bugged-eyed Kim, in some North Korean bunker, listening to the Smiths' "Ask" song, once again miscalculating the world around him outside of his Hermit Kingdom.  While neither the world, or Kim's neighbors, may love him, his desire for a bomb surely can bring the world together.

The Context

The United States had tracked the fueling and preparation of a potential test launch of the North Korean Taepodong 2 ICBM over the past weeks.  This missile is an upgrade to the 1998 Taepodong 1 missile fired over Japan.  The Taepodong 2 has an estimated range of 6,700 km (4,200 miles) and can carry up to a 1,000 kg warhead. (For a history of North Korean missile development and its arsenal, see this excellent Asia Times story).  The North Koreans fired this missile along with 6 others (of lesser strategic value) over a two-day period.  This is in violation of their 2002 pledge not to test missiles.

What Does it All Mean?

1. North Korea's ability to sell "sophisticated" weapons for hard currency may be in greater jeopardy than before the test firing. The failure of the test is a great humiliation to the North Koreans. Possibly more North Korean missiles will rust in warehouses of weary buyers, like with the UAE in 1989.

2. North Korea has given the populations of South Korea and Japan one more great reminder of why a military partnership with the United States is in their strategic national interest.  While Russia and China will not support economic sanctions for the test firing, the international community has roundly condemned the launch.

3. Missile defense will only increase by regional players, including India, which is deciding between the US Patriot-3 system and the Israeli (with American support) Arrow missile defense system.

4. China, which blocked any UN announcement after the 1998 test firing, has allowed the issue before the whole Security Council, especially as they hold a critical seat as a sponsor of the 6-party talks that the North Koreans refuse to attend. 

5. US defense coordination with its allies in the region will only continue, along with the R&D required to continue to field a viable defense.

6. North Korean promises, statements and agreements are less reliable than their Taepodong 2 missile.

It is hard to see how the North Korean regime comes out ahead, based on this failed display of power.  For people who had no interest in the realpolitik arguments of deterrence and national security, they are taking another look and seeking protection from their governments.  This can only lead to greater international security cooperation in Asia with the United States.  A growing consensus is emerging that the threat of a North Korean nuclear "bomb" is bringing the world together.

International Commentary for additional reading

Australia - "Test Firing Linked to Closure of Foreign Banking Channels"
                "Rouge's Missile Menace"

Russia - "Russia blasts N. Korea over missile tests, balks at sanctions"

Philippines - "Politicians agree N. Korea missile launch worrisome"

India - "North Korean Missile tests Suit India"

Japan - "North Korea Launches 7 Missiles"
            "North Korean move triggers annoyance, bewilderment across Japan"

The Chester China Challenge

I posted recently about China's moves into Latin America in this prior post.  "Chester" from the Adventures of Chester sums up the key argument and asks two important questions.

DEL's Key Argument on Chinese Motives in Latin America

"The Chinese, to grow their economy, require more natural resources than China has domestically. Securing metals and especially oil is vital to the long-term growth and modernization of the Chinese economy. China is seeking to obtain these supplies by increasing its good will with Latin American governments that have these resources, while minimizing Taiwan. Long-term Chinese goals will be to increase military contacts with these same nations to ultimately secure their economic interests."

Chester's Question 1:

"First, it seems that there is a danger in how one assigns agency and action to various state actors when considering moves like these. For example, if a US-based multi-national or international firm decides to move into a new market abroad, what role does the US government, the state itself, have in that move?...

Basically, I sometimes wonder about using the terms "China" and "the US" to describe actions taken by many different actors, some state-centered, some not, all varying in their roles, relationships to each other, and objectives. Don't get me wrong. I use the same constructs myself in describing international relations all the time. I have no doubt, as Bill states, that the Chinese state, and the US state, want to increase their influence in Latin America vis a vis each other. But I don't want the "transnational" or "subnational" or "intranational" aspects to be looked over. "

Chester's question brought back a politics class that I imagine both of us sat through in our political education in college.  I remember reading Kenneth Waltz's "Man, the State and War" [see DEL post on Kenneth Waltz for more].  What was captivating about the book was Waltz's breaking down of viewing international relations from three different paradigms as the principal actor:

1. The Individual. An individual controls the destiny of a nation or series of international events.  Think of Alexander the Great single-handedly influencing the known world of his day, uniting Greece and conquering ancient Persia.
2. The State. Regardless of the leader of the nation, the state is the highest rational actor in international relations.  Europe during the 19th century was composed of individual states that, regardless of their heads of state, would have conducted foreign policy in remarkably similar ways based on the national character and geography of their empires.  Another argument for this analysis is that regardless of who wins the US Presidency, American foreign policy is rather consistent.
3. The System. The larger order of international relations, not the state or individual, is the best paradigm for viewing how a group of nations inter-relate.  The Cold War system was largely predictable because of the competing ideologies and the different nations aligned in the struggle between capitalism and communism with the third world as the battleground for the proxy wars of the major powers.

Of course all three levels of analysis can be used to view international relations, including the motives of the Chinese moving in Latin America.  Using the system above, here are three explanations:

1. Hutchinson Port Holdings, a Hong Kong based firm, is interested in expanding its core line of business, shipping ports and cargo passage in an important region of the world, Panama.  The company has a history, going back to 1866, of being involved in ports and shipping.  While a Chinese company, it is acting as an independent actor on the world stage. (It is one of several Chinese companies bidding on the location in Panama.)
2. China, as a state actor, is interested in securing economic and diplomatic benefit in Latin America.  In order to do so, it has created a political climate that encourages its largely state-owned companies to expand internationally.  This is aided by China's massive trade surplus with the United States. 
3. Due to the dynamics of Asia politics and international relations in general, the capitalist system will promote Chinese involvement in Latin America.  Globalization also creates the dependency of Latin America on Chinese investment, especially as US investment atrophies in the region.

There are elements of truth to all three paradigms above.  However, I would differ with Chester in his view of the Chinese as being more prone to the Individual actor as opposed to the state actor as the principal force in the equation.  Unlike the United States, the vast majority of large Chinese companies (ie., CNOOC) are state-owned or military-run enterprises that are heavily subsidized by the state.  I find using the second paradigm, state actor, as more convincing for analyzing China than US foreign relations. 

Chester's Question 2 (actually a point):

" Second point: One way that I recently discovered of thinking about the competing influences of the US and China all over the world is through the game of Go (via wikipedia). Whereas the US-USSR relationship might have best been analogized as a game of strategic chess, the US-China relationship seems much more similar to Go. Each side is carefully setting up relationships in places all over the globe. For every Latin American nation that China influences, Bush or Rumsfeld visit a Mongolia or a Kyrghizstan. Each state, US or China, has a web of interacting speres of influence, characterized in particular by economic relationships, military relationships, diplomatic relationships, the flows of trade among citizens any third-party state (to use a transnational metric), cultural infuence (to use another) and each of these influences could be similar to a single piece on the Go board. Over time, the influences of one side combine locally in one place to overcome the influences of the other side. Over even longer periods of time, the influences of each side become concentrated in certain areas, or, if one side doesn't carefully guard its influences by interlocking them carefuly with complementary ones, it will find itself losing in an absolute sense. In this way, whereas chess is about head-to-head military competition, Go is much more subltle. I think it applies to US-China competiton. The only thing not accounted for by this analogy is the possibility of cooperation between the two states in common goals. Go does not allow for this in its traditional rules. Neverthelss, I find it useful."

Chester's second point really drills down to the question of: "Is US-Sino relations a zero-sum game?"  Most board games are zero-sum games, where there is always a winner and a loser.  The Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States from 1947-1991 is a quintessential example of foreign policy being played out with the view that if one nation is advancing its cause, the other is declining.  In economics, "Comparative Advantage" is a proven mathematical model that demonstrates how two nations can both be better off from exchanging goods together.  Many online community games work on similar principles.  Comparative advantage, while not game theory, does point to a way in which nations can interact that is not a zero-sum outcome.  As an example, the US Marshall Plan is an example where multiple nations were better off by the actions of one nation.  Much like comparative advantage, the nations that were a part of the Marshall Plan, including the US, were more prosperous and secure as a result.

Conclusion - Is US-Sino Relations a Zero-Sum Game?

If China emerges as a democratic country over the next 10 to 20 years, I believe US-Sino relations will be characterized as one similar to comparative advantage.  However, if China continues to use nationalism to keep its population backing its current authoritative regime by focusing abroad (to nations such as Japan and the United States), I think it is more likely that US-Sino relations will be reminiscent of US-Soviet relations during the Cold War: a zero-sum game.

A New Perspective on China in Latin America

Dawn's Early Light argued earlier in the post titled "China's Moves in Panama":

"The Chinese, to grow their economy, require more natural resources than China has domestically.  Securing metals and especially oil is vital to the long-term growth and modernization of the Chinese economy.  China is seeking to obtain these supplies by increasing its good will with Latin American governments that have these resources, while minimizing Taiwan.  Long-term Chinese goals will be to increase military contacts with these same nations to ultimately secure their economic interests."

Tom Collins of Quillnews, who supported the Chinese CNOOC bid for UNOCAL, believes that the Chinese are not a threat to US national security interests by their economic adventures abroad.  In this recent post he states:

"At the moment, I don’t see China’s development of relations in Lat Am as hostile to the US – at all... Rather than fear these overtures, the US should welcome the opportunity to get along with China here and to build the trusting positive relations in the Americas that can be leveraged to improve relations in East and South Asia – where we already have vital interests and where our cooperation with China is critical to peace and prosperity. (SD1, SD2, SD3, SD4)"

While I am not confident that Chinese long-term intentions in Latin America are as benign as Mr. Collins suggests, I think his next point is well worth considering.  While US-Sino foreign policy is important to follow, the ability for smaller nations in Latin America to play off that relationship is what is as noteworthy as the debate about China itself.

"Having said that, the fact that China will be developing strategic relations in Lat Am will be provocative – and be used by Chavez, Castro and other Lat Am hard cases to leverage their own hostility toward the US and its interests. (Summit, SD, Venezuela) Said another way: China will have to be very careful not to be used by the anti-US forces in Lat Am in their own political games.  This is going to be a big challenge to China’s diplomats because you can guarantee that Chavez and his ilk will try to use China against the US – whether China likes it or not.  The US is on track with China – trade development, lack of military hostility, cooperation on North Korea, emphasis on political and legal transparency and reform.  But China is the ball game.  This is 20% of humanity, and they have a 5,000 year old civilization and they are on the move in the wider world.  The strategy for free people:

• Plan A: be friends and get along
• Plan B: be prepared to win a fight with them. 

The challenge for the US will be to be ready for both the whole time and have no illusions about the nature of humanity."

I am less sanguine about China not using Latin American politics to further alienate the US from the region.  However, I expect the Latin American regimes that are most vocal about their opposition to the United States to embrace China with open arms as time unfolds.  That should be a true worry for the US State Department.

Asia Summary

For Dawn's Early Light readers interested in Asia, here are some articles worthy of mention, though due to my cold I will not be able to provide the normal longer commentary.  However, they are well worth reading and mentioning in this space.

Japan Draft Constitutional Changes Strengthens Military

"Japan's Draft Charter Redefines Military", Washington Post, November 23, 2005

"The governing Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday released a draft revision of Japan's pacifist constitution that for the first time since World War II would recognize the country's armed forces as a fully functioning military...

The constitutional draft would broaden the government's ability to send forces overseas; such an order now requires special legislation in parliament.

The revision also opens the door to a broader interpretation of the constitution, permitting what some call "collective self-defense" -- or coming to the military aid of other countries. The most likely beneficiary would be Japan's closest ally, the United States, which has urged Japan to adopt such measures. Changes in Japan's constitutional status would have major significance in the region, particularly in the event of a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan."

DEL posted on this development in "What is Japan's Asia Strategy? (Part II)" on October 29, 2005.  After PM Koizumi's crushing September 11, 2005 electoral victory and his ability to purge his LPD party members that were unsupportive, he is in a good position to continue steps towards strengthening the US-Japanese alliance as well as contain China over issues such as Taiwan and check China's growing military strength.

India to unveil new thinking on foreign investment

The Financial Times (subscription required) writes an article on the above title that is important with respect to India's goals in catching up to China and put some extra horsepower into their economy.

"India’s Communist-backed government will on Thursday afternoon consider a sweeping liberalisation of foreign direct investment rules that would kick start a long-stalled programme of economic reforms.

Kamal Nath, India’s minister for commerce and industry, has proposed allowing 100 per cent foreign direct investment in a range of sectors, including airport construction, oil & gas infrastructure and cash & carry wholesale trading."

Indonesia to Again Receive US Military Support

The US wants Indonesia back in its sphere of influence and not that of the Russians or Chinese.  Goodwill created by the US in the wake of last year's devastating tsunami helped US standing in Indonesia.  This, coupled with its strategic importance as the largest Muslim nation, is the reason for the aggressive US diplomatic move.  The Asia Times Online reports:

"Citing 'national security interests' and noting that Indonesia plays a strategic role in Southeast Asia and is a 'voice of moderation in the Islamic world', the US State Department jumped the gun on Tuesday and lifted a Congress-approved arms embargo against Indonesia.

With East Timor now independent and Aceh no longer a theater of war, Indonesia's pressing need is to upgrade its armed forces to cope with internal security, fight terrorism, guard vital sea lanes, protect the country's numerous oil and gas platforms from terrorist strikes and enforce its maritime boundaries to prevent foreign trawlers from poaching its resources.

Smuggling, illegal fishing and maritime piracy are rife in Indonesian waters, and the addition of more sophisticated vessels will go a long way to curbing these threats...After discussions with President George W Bush, Yudhyono, an ex-general, told a news conference, "I am not pleading for a resumption. We deserve it because we have undergone a reform in our military, with an emphasis on respecting human rights and democracy."

The bulk of Indonesia's hardware is US-made and the TNI - as the army is called - suffers shortages as it can't get replacements and spares.

As a result, Jakarta has increasingly turned to Moscow. After Yudhyono's discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it was announced that both leaders had agreed to start up intensive negotiations on setting up a joint production facility for certain sophisticated military equipment and to develop a national defense industry in cash-strapped Indonesia."

Read the whole article for the details on Indonesia's Type 209-class submarines, Ahmed Yani-class ships, Tribal-class frigates, Claude Jones-class frigates, F-5 fighter and A-4 attack planes, F-16As, Su-27SKs Su-30MK fighters and Hawk 209 light attack jets.

China's Awkward Relations with the EU

DEL has written before on the failure of Chinese foreign policy to lift the arms embargo from the European Union (thanks to a strong US diplomatic effort against French profit motives).  Another Asia Times Online piece discusses the EU-French-Sino relationship.

"The recent state visits by President Hu Jintao to the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain are the latest steps in a continuing effort by the Chinese government and its European counterparts to strengthen their ties, but they also demonstrate some of the contradictions China faces in dealing with Europe and its constituent member states.

Both the European Union and China have described their relationship as strategic, although sometimes this seems no more than a hyperbolic way of saying each considers the other important. It is perhaps true that the relationship is more strategic for China than the EU. The promotion of multipolarity is one of the key foreign policy aims of the Chinese government, and the EU is a crucial element in the policy." 

The piece discusses UK, German and French positions within the EU trade and military policy regarding China. 

Hope you enjoy the articles.

Bush Worships in Chinese Church

President Bush made a symbolic visit to one of 5 sanctioned Protestant churches in Beijing during his recent trip to China.  This article from the Washington Post, with a superb commentary by Rick Moore of HolyCoast, points to an important event.  Religious freedom is a cornerstone of our democracy, and expanding such freedoms in China will lead, over the long term, to greater personal and democratic freedoms.

The President, while a Protestant evangelical himself, did not specify his actions and comments directly at promoting the Christian faith in China.  The San Diego Union Tribune reports:

"Prodded by U.S. evangelical Christians and a bipartisan group in Congress, he has long championed the cause of Chinese persecuted for their religious beliefs. Bush met with Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, long denounced by China, in Washington before the trip.

The president made his case directly to Hu yesterday when the two leaders met in the Great Hall of the People just off Tiananmen Square. 'It is important that social, political and religious freedoms grow in China,' he said in his formal statement read standing next to the Chinese leader. 'And we encourage China to continue making the historic transition to greater freedom.'"

From the same article here are some of President Bush's comments while in China regarding religion:

• "As he entered Gangwashi Church with first lady Laura Bush, he was greeted by pastor Du Fengying, who gave him two Chinese bibles. He then wrote in her guest book, 'May God bless the Christians of China.'"
• "'My hope is that the government of China will not fear Christians who gather to worship openly,' he said during the church service, after applauding the small choir's rendition of Beethoven's Ode to Joy. 'A healthy society is a society that welcomes all faiths and gives people a chance to express themselves through worship with the Almighty.'"
• "After the services, Bush remarked that 'the spirit of the Lord is very strong inside your church.'"
• "'I will continue to remind President Hu about . . . my personal faith and the belief that people should be allowed to worship freely,' he said in a pre-departure interview. He added, "And a vibrant, whole society is one that recognizes that certain freedoms are inherent and need to be part of a complete society.'"

It is important for the President to speak out about religious freedoms.  They often go hand in hand with how a country approaches human rights.  As the move to abolish slavery, to restore civil rights to black Americans and efforts to affect poverty in the United States have been largely driven by religious organizations from a Judeo-Christian perspective, so too will a greater level of religious freedom in China lead to a better Chinese society with dignity for all peoples.

China's Moves in Panama

A view of the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal and location of Panama's next "mega-port".

One of China's major foreign and military policy goals is to establish a firm foothold in Latin America.  Dawn's Early Light posted on this topic last April.  China has a particular interest in the strategic Latin American country of Panama.  While President Bush currently tours Latin America, the subject of a future DEL post, it is important to address China's growing influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Cheat-SeekingMissiles has been posting on China's latest moves to acquire a former US Air Force Base that is being sold by the Panamanian Government (see C-SM "China's Panama Grab Threatens US", "More on Commies At The Canal" and "China Could Use Howard As Air Base").  The Chinese already own a major interest in port operations on the east and west sides of the canal.

Panama has opened bids for a "mega-port" on the Pacific side of the Panama Canal (click on Google Map above) in Farfan.  The port property is likely to fetch $600 million for the land and port rights.

"[Panamanian President Martin] Torrijos met with representatives of China Ocean Shipping Co. (COSCO) of China; Evergreen of Taiwan; the Port Authority of Denmark (APM); Stevedoring Services of America (SSA) of the United States; Hutchison Port Holdings of China; Dragados of Spain; International Transportation Services (ITS), Ports North America Inc. and Marine Terminal Co. (MTC Holdings) of the United States; Nippon Yusen Kaisha (NHK Line) of Japan and PSA International of Singapore.

French, British and UAE companies also have voiced interest in the project according to its director, Rogelio Orillac." 

Two of the bidders on the mega-port are Chinese.  China in the past decade has had a growing interest in increasing its economic involvement in Latin America.  Stephen Johnson of The Heritage Foundation details China's growth [read the whole article for a terrific analysis]:

"In April 2001, Chinese President Jiang Zemin pre­sided over a 12-day mission to cement economic and trade ties, as well as attack what he called Washington’s “unipolar” scheme.[5] His itinerary included Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Cuba, and Venezuela. Li Peng, chairman of the Standing Com­mittee of the People’s National Congress, followed up with more visits in November 2001. In Novem­ber 2004, President Hu Jintao flew to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Cuba, where he signed 39 bilat­eral agreements and announced $100 billion in investments over the next 10 years. In May of this year, Communist Party Chairman Jia Qinglin vis­ited Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, and Cuba.

Building on simple commercial agreements, China has advanced to economic assistance, direct investment, a few joint ventures, and military ties. When Argentina’s financial collapse rippled through South America’s Southern Cone, China quickly seized the chance to increase its stake in Argentina and Brazil, while U.S. investment declined by nearly half. Joint ventures include part­nerships with Great Dragon Telecom in Cuba as well as Colombia. China is partnering with Brazil to improve that country’s railways and establish a rail link to the Pacific to cut transportation costs of iron ore and soybeans. Chile’s congested port at Antofa­gasta may get a facelift thanks to the PRC."

China is interested in potentially widening the Panama Canal to allow for larger Chinese ships to move goods from the Pacific to the Atlantic according to the Washington Times.  President Bush in a recent trip to Panama announced US support for widening the canal as long as every country has "equal access".  With China's large economic role in Panama, it must be considered a serious contender for replacing the US as the principal nation in the Panamanian relationship.

Venezuela's Electronic News, which claims it "remains 100% independent of all political factions" has a thorough analysis of China's economic and especially military ties along with goals in Latin America.  A summary of Chinese involvement in the region:

Economic and Political

• China is working to reduce Taiwanese influence in the world through its economic ties in Latin America. "Of the 26 countries that still recognize Taiwan as a free-standing nation, half are found in Latin America or the Caribbean."
• "It is relevant to note that today China is the third largest manufacturer of automobiles in the world. Therefore, it is not surprising that according to the Washington Post, Beijing has estimated that by 2020 the country would need 600 million tons of crude oil annually."
• "China has displaced the United States as the world’s largest consumer of most industrial raw materials, including copper, aluminum, nickel, platinum and iron ore."
• "In [China's] eagerness to secure access to the Latin American resources it so prizes, the PRC has skillfully wielded its economic 'soft power' to convince regional governments to amicably open up their countries to Chinese penetrations."
• "Chinese private sector direct investment in the region is significant: at $1.04 billion it constitutes more than a third of China’s overall direct investment worldwide. Furthermore, the PRC has approximately $1 billion in investments in Venezuelan oil production, and has promised much more to other countries in the region."
• "In 2004, China pledged $275 million for improvements to Argentina’s infrastructure, and, according to Poder magazine, it also offered Brazil '$8 billion for railways, $6 billion for low cost housing, $5 billion for hydrocarbons, $450 billion for communications, and $260 billion for satellites.'"

Military

• "Chinese economic linkages with Latin America have been paralleled by a certain growth in the military relationship between the two geographical areas."
• "The meteoric deterioration of the quality of US regional engagement during the Otto Reich-Roger Noriega era of ideological supremacy, helped open the door for opportunistic PRC probes throughout the hemisphere. As it advanced its economic aims in Latin America, it also has carefully established active, if low intensity, military relations with the region’s armed forces."
• "China has had only one established direct instance of military linkage with the region as a result of sending 125 riot police to participate in the UN’s Haiti peacekeeping force."
• "Strengthened by cooperation agreements such as those signed between China, Brazil and Venezuela, bilateral military ties are increasing, although they remain minimal."
• "On a 2004 visit to China, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva sought an 'across the board' consolidation of strategic relations including trade, scientific, cultural and military ties, according to the China Daily newspaper."
• "Between 2003 and 2004, according to the PLA website, there were 15 visits to Latin American countries by PLA officials that were described as 'major military exchanges.'"
• "So far this year, a military delegation has visited Chile and Colombia in September, the director of the PLA’s General Political Department has traveled to Venezuela and Argentina, and 'goodwill visits' were made to Cuba and Mexico."
• "Chile has also established a close relationship which, according to Ellis' report, includes 'attendance by Chilean officers at the National Defense University of China,' and 'Chinese representation at the Chilean War College.'"
• "Venezuela and China also have tightened their military bonds in recent years. In August of 2005, Caracas purchased three military grade radar systems from Beijing."
• "As relations between Venezuela and the US have soured, China seems to have taken advantage, and Beijing could be close to establishing a potential master source to satisfy its oil thirst."
• "Peru and China also maintain active military exchanges, which according to the Peruvian Defense Ministry, are targeted primarily at scientific and technological cooperation. A 1998 agreement sent $1 million in military assistance from China to Peru, and similar accords have since followed."

The Chinese, to grow their economy, require more natural resources than China has domestically.  Securing metals and especially oil is vital to the long-term growth and modernization of the Chinese economy.  China is seeking to obtain these supplies by increasing its good will with Latin American governments that have these resources, while minimizing Taiwan.  Long-term Chinese goals will be to increase military contacts with these same nations to ultimately secure their economic interests.

Panama is yet another example of China's ambitions in Latin America.  The United States should wake up to what is going on in its historic "backyard" before it is too late.  The Chinese, due to their policies, are currently more popular in Latin America than Americans are. 

Other articles of note

1. "Latins seduced, jarred by China-led Asia", The China Post, November 16, 2005
2. "Bush wants Panama Canal Safeguards", Today Online, November 8, 2005
3. "Remarks by President Bush and President Torrijos of Panama", November 7, 2005
4. "Panamanians for Better China Ties", Presna Latina [Cuban State News], October 21, 2005

Bush in Asia: Japan - America's Chief Ally

President Bush visited his good ally and friend Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi yesterday.  The BBC World News reports that Mr. Bush stressed:

Appreciation for Japan's role and support in Afghanistan and Iraq

Praise for Japan for helping spread "democracy and freedom" in Asia

American support for a permanent United Nations Security Council seat for the Japanese

the strength of the US-Japanese Strategic Alliance

President Bush also took the occasion to hint at his position with the Chinese as he gets ready to visit the country after visiting South Korea.  The Financial Times reports:

"Bush cited the communist country as an example of a society that has taken steps toward freedom 'but they have not yet completed the journey.'

He painted a different picture of Taiwan, which China claims. However, Bush reiterated the U.S. 'one-China' policy.

'Modern Taiwan is free and democratic and prosperous. By embracing freedom at all levels, Taiwan has delivered prosperity to its people and created a free and democratic Chinese society,' Bush said in prepared remarks for a speech in Kyoto."

President Bush, while affirming the "One-China" policy, also held out Taiwan as a model of what America would like to see the Chinese economy and political structure emulate.  On the issue of defending Taiwan, the President was adamant, and said he would do "whatever it takes" to defend the Chinese island.  The President did have harsher comments for Myanmar and North Korea.

"Bush had tough words for North Korea and Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and said that unlike China they had 'not taken even the first steps toward freedom.'

He criticized 'widespread' abuses by the Burmese military, saying they include 'rape, torture, execution and forced relocation.'

Bush cited satellite pictures showing prison camps in North Korea 'the size of whole cities' and said the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons threatened to destabilise the region."

It is important to note that President Bush is pursuing a policy of exposing the massive human rights violations of these rogue nations. 

China vs. Japan in the Air over East China Sea

Coming Anarchy has a post on over 30 incidents of Japanese fighters scrambling to turn away Chinese planes encroaching on Japanese airspace.  Dawn's Early Light believes these growing incidents have to do with the struggle for oil and engergy deposits in the East China Sea.

Two prior posts on this struggle can be found in "Containing China and Thwarting Terrorism" (May 10, 2005) and "China Rebuffs Japanese Foreign Minister" (October 18, 2005)

Both articles deal with the sensitive issue of energy needs and resources of China and their growing aggressiveness in attempting to claim and outright take these assets.

China, Taiwan, the US and Chess

Dawn's Early Light attempts to point to well written and thought out pieces by other bloggers online.  Curzon, from the Coming Anarchy, has a truly brilliant post titled "Pinned: America's Taiwan Policy".  Due to the images he uses in structuring his argument, which is a dissenting opinion from his two co-bloggers, I highly recommend you click on the link and read his post.

Curzon takes to task tdaxp hero and global thinker Dr. Thomas P. M. Barnett for his East Asia views. 

I am still mulling over his opinions, but I must say that I think my view of China is much closer to Curzon's than it is Dr. Barnett.  I am curious what Dan over at tdaxp has to say. Dan?

Chinese Reform Urban/Rural Permits

Simon from Simon's World has an interesting post on the potential abolishment of the Chinese system of hukou.  Hukou is the Chinese system of registration that ties an individual to the location they are from and has been used by communist parties to restrict travel within a country along with tracking employment and providing health benefits.  However, with the massive migration from rural areas to urban cities in China, the Hukou system broke down.  The main effect was creating second-class citizens of the rural workers who ended up in the cities, because they lost access to health care and education.  There are anywhere between 100-200 million Chinese affected in urban areas originally from rural parts of China.

This move may be part of the Chinese Communist Party's efforts to stem growing unrest over economic conditions.  Simon reports:

"Up to 11 provinces are contemplating abolishing hukou. This would allow rural migrants access to the same health, education and social security benefits as city dwellers. It will also end distinctions based on where you are from rather than where you live. The move is also considered part of the effort to close potential unrest over China's income gap between the rural poor and richer cities. Given the new 5-year plan's obsession with stability, more of these measures recognising economic reality are likely going forward."

He notes that similar efforts were attempted in the past, only to not be implemented or rescinded because of their large financial costs on the major cities.  The major benefit may be the effects on education of the children of rural Chinese children living in urban areas.  According to the US Embassy:

"Why would rural migrants with stable work and a fixed dwelling in an urban area feel the need to change hukous? The main reason is their children's education, according to a Chinese labor economist who has studied hukou reforms in Fenghua, a small city within the jurisdiction of Ningbo (Zhejiang). According to the economist, Fenghua's rural hukou holders must pay RMB 3,500 (USD 437) for their children's yearly primary school tuition, inclusive of various book fees. For urban hukou holders, primary school costs only RMB 1,200 (USD 150) per child per year. The economist said that this disparity typified most urban centers. Moreover, discriminatory education policies made it more difficult for rural hukou holders than urban hukou holders to enter universities. An urban hukou could thus mean the difference between a lifetime of manual labor and a high-paying white-collar career for one's children, the economist observed."

Simon hopes that it will lead to greater democracy and economic reform. "The key point is this: Facts on the ground can push governments into changes they may not want to make. Even if they don't realise it, changes like this bolster those of us who believe China's economic changes will eventually force the collapse of the CCP and lead to democracy."  I truly hope he is right.