By Dawn's Early Light

Westerners Targeted in Egypt

The New York Times is reporting on a Cairo bombing targeted against tourists at a bazaar.  The attack killed two (though one may be a suicide bomber; it is still unclear from the report) and left 18 wounded.

"The wounded - listed as four French, three Americans, an Italian, a Turk and nine Egyptians - were treated at Hussein Hospital, which was surrounded by a row of police officers in full riot gear.

Nurses at the receiving desk said most of those admitted had nails more than an inch long and shards of glass embedded in their bodies, although one woman had much of her lower body blown away."

The attack is aimed at weakening the government economically through affecting Egypt's tourism industry.

"The country's tourism industry, a main engine of its economy, has been booming after suffering from violent attacks by Islamic militants seeking to topple the government in the late 1990's."

It will be interesting to see if this impacts the Egyptian view of their upcoming election.  These strategies did not work well in Iraq, leading up to their January election.  This type of bombing would not seem to help the Muslim Brotherhood, since it would likely precipitate more arrests of opposition party members, such as what occured after an October bombing (as reported here by the AP).  DEL does not mean to imply that the Muslim Brotherhood was responsible, but it cannot help the opposition by encouraging the government to take an even harder line.

I imagine these strategies will decrease tourism, hurting Egyptians, and ultimately hurt the election.  Maybe this is what the radical Islam terrorists want.  No democracy, just a theocracy by revolution. Time will tell. 

Watching the Streets of Egypt

While protests are erupting in the streets of Taiwan, Lebanon, and Kyrgyzstan, Egypt continues to simmer.  The Christian Science Monitor reports some interesting developments in Cairo.  Since Secretary Rice canceled a visit to Egypt out of displeasure for President Mubarak's detention of a government critic and member of Parliament Nour Al-Ghad, and Mr. Mubarak's February 26, 2005 subsequent call for the first democratic elections, the opposition parties have been scrambling to organize.

Three of the more vocal opposition groups, "The Brotherhood" or "The Muslim Brotherhood", the Al-Ghad movement, and "Kafaya", meaning "Enough", are being targeted by Egyptian security forces.  First some background.  The New York Times describes The Muslim Brotherhood:

"Founded in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood has grown into a vast movement with tens of thousands of supporters. While once known for violence, it now advocates the peaceful establishment of an Islamic state...

'We are now struggling for real reform in Egypt,' Essam el-Eryan, a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood said in a telephone interview. 'And real reform has an agenda that is entirely different from the formal constitutional change. What we want is to change the prevailing atmosphere.'"

The Kafaya [also spelled Kifaya] has called for the end of Mr. Mubarak's 24-year rule and appears to be a more secular movement, though small in number, which has helped it stay somewhat below the government's radar.

The Christian Science Monitor gives this account:

"Mr. Mubarak has allowed unlicensed protests in recent months by Kafaya. But an emboldened Brotherhood, which has offices in every province and is the country's largest opposition organization, was too much for the government to take.

"The reason for the escalation by state security is the difference in size and influence between the Muslim Brotherhood and the other opposition groups," says Ahmed Ramy, a Brotherhood member.

It appears that the government - caught between US pressure and an increasingly vocal opposition, emboldened by the Iraq war - is trying to relieve political pressure with a small opening while not risking losing control of the situation."

Between these groups and others, they organized 3,000 protesters near parliament, of which at least 50 where detained, though some appear to have been detained prior to the protests in pre-dawn raids.

According to the Jerusalem Post,

"Sunday's events came a day after the government announced a court trial date for Ayman Nour, the leader of the Al-Ghad opposition party, who plans to run against President Hosni Mubarak."

If Ayman Nour is found guilty, he will not be "eligible" to stand for the election, clearly what the government is aiming at, especially since he represents the only officially licensed opposition party. 

What is interesting is how the small group Kafaya is motivating The Brotherhood into action, as again described by the CSM:

"The opposition has been fortified by Mubarak's promise a month ago to amend the constitution to allow a competitive presidential election. Under current rules, only one candidate is nominated by parliament, which Mubarak's National Democratic Party controls.

'We assume that the rules for the election will make it impossible to legally put forth viable opposition candidates,' says Abdel Halim Qandeel, an editor at the anti-government Al-Arabi newspaper and an organizer behind Kafaya. 'But there is an opening here. For the first time, there's open criticism of Mubarak and his family. We need street protests to break the barrier of fear around political activity.'

Mr. Qandeel concedes that his movement is 'still small,' but says Kafaya can take credit for stirring the Brotherhood.

'The Brotherhood is like an enormous body with a very small brain. It takes time to get it moving,' he says. Qandeel, a secular socialist whose vision is sharply at odds with the Brotherhood, says he's happy they're becoming more confrontational.

'They don't want to miss out - our pressure forced them to organize their own demonstration,' he says. 'This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Everyone has to fight Egypt's political stagnation.'"

Opposition parties are feeding other opposition parties.  How well Mr. Mubarak can control Egypt's fate remains to be seen.  While 3,000 protesters is a good start, it is far from the numbers that successful revolutions have produced in the Ukraine and Lebanon. 

Egypt, Diplomacy and Freedom

Drudge has a link to an article on Sec. Rice postponing a visit to Egypt.

"A senior U.S. official, citing Rice's displeasure with the arrest and other internal actions taken by the Egyptian government, said change was needed and she wanted to see what steps were taken before going to Cairo. The official spoke only on condition of anonymity."

"The decision not to go apparently caught Egypt off-guard. The country's major pro-government newspaper, Al-Ahram, reported Friday that Rice would be in Egypt next Saturday."

Apparently, it would seem the message was heard load and clear in Cairo.  The AP today is reporting "Egypt's Mubarak Orders Election Reform".  Hosni Mubarak, the President of Egypt since Anwar Sadat's assassination in 1981, who has never faced a competitive election, said the following key quotes:

"The election of a president will be through direct, secret balloting, giving the chance for political parties to run for the presidential elections and providing guarantees that allow more than one candidate for the people to choose among them with their own will," Mubarak said in an address broadcast live on Egyptian television.

The next step is for Egypt's Shura Council to amend "Article 76" of Egypt's constitution with the change then being put before the people.  The change to and vote on the constitutional changes could come within 9 weeks.

We should be patient and see if Egypt does reform, but the writing is on the wall in the Middle East.  It is hard to argue that this move would have been possible if it wasn't for the American invasion of Iraq, the Iraqis demonstrating their conviction in voting, and President Bush's commitment to spreading democracy that is at the heart of every foreign policy address he gives.