By Dawn's Early Light

Fighting Future Terrorism in North Africa

The Washington Times reports on an important US initiative in the Sahel region of North Africa.  The United States is spending $100 million a year for five years ($500 million total program) by funding the Trans-Saharan Counter-Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI).  The Saleh region covers nine nations and has approximately 65 million people.

The Trans-Sharan Counter-Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI)

"Algeria, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Morocco, Nigeria and Tunisia take part in the TSCTI.
    During the first phase of the program, dubbed Operation Flintlock, U.S. Special Forces led 3,000 ill-equipped Saharan troops in tactical exercises designed to better coordinate security along porous borders and beef up patrols in ungoverned territories.
    Maj. Silkman said Africa has become the most important concern of the U.S. European Command (Eucom) because of rampant corruption, drug and human trafficking, poverty and high unemployment, which create a significant 'potential for instability,' particularly in the Saharan region, where 50 percent of the population is younger than 15.
    The TSCTI is 'one of the franchises' to defeat ideological entrepreneurs trying to gain a foothold by reaching out to the 'disaffected, disenfranchised, or just misinformed and disillusioned,' she said."

Al-Qaeda may be looking to partner with other militant African groups like the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) that is believed responsible for the attack on European tourists in 2003 and may have as many as 300 terrorists in the network.  There is an additional concern because some estimates place 25% of Iraqi suicide bombers from North Africa.

There is some skepticism in some of the North African nations about the TSCTI plan.  Some Africans view the plan as a US move to gain more influence over African oil.  Others argue that repressive governments are using the US Global War on Terror to deny civil rights to their citizens. 

SourceWatch has an excellent summary of the initiative and its member components:

• "Department of Defense 'would continue to focus on military operations'
• U.S. Agency for International Development 'for example, would address educational initiatives'
• Department of State, airport security
• Department of the Treasury, 'efforts to tighten up money-handling controls in the region'"

This area falls within the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa's (CJTF-HOA) [See DEL post here regarding] area of responsibility  [CORRECTED July 10, 2006, thanks to reader Mark S.  This area doesn't fall under the CJTF-HOA].  The US has already spent $112 million in food aid for the region (for a list of USAID projects see here).

According to Global Security, the TCSTI would:

"help strengthen regional counterterrorism capabilities, enhance and institutionalize cooperation among the region’s security forces, promote democratic governance, and ultimately benefit our bilateral relationships with each of these states. Key aspects of the TSCTI training would include basic marksmanship, planning, communications, land navigation, patrolling and medical care."

Flintlock 2005

The TCSTI follows up on and replaces the US State Department, November 2002 Pan Sahel Initiative (PSI). As part of the TCSTI, EUCOM (US European Command) conducted Flintlock 2005.  Global Security describest the special forces training operation:

"US military members arrived throughout North and West Africa to participate in exercise Flintlock 2005. Flintlock, which ran June 6-26, was a series of military exercises conducted with US theater security cooperation partners in Africa. European and the NATO partner nations also participated, either directly or in an advisory role.

The principal purpose of this training was to ensure all nations continue developing their partnerships; further enhance their capabilities to halt the flow of illicit weapons, goods and human trafficking in the region; and prevent terrorists from establishing sanctuary in remote areas.

The training took place in several countries: Algeria, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Niger and Chad. Participants practiced a wide variety of skills to include airborne operations, small-unit tactics, security operations, land navigation, marksmanship, medical skills, human rights training and land warfare."

Much like CJTF-HOA efforts in the Horn of Africa, the TSCTI seeks an approach to dealing with failing states on a multi-tier level.  Improving command and control, military training, food aid, education and other human assistance areas are the joint approach the US is taking with North African participants.

Conclusion

Securing a safe North Africa will be at a minimum a generational task.  However, it is a long term commitment the US cannot afford to neglect.  North Africa could become another Taliban led Afghanistan or haven for terrorism and a prime source of potential recruits.  TSCTI is a good further step along the road to changing and improving the North Africa region.

Additional Suggested Reading on TSCTI:

1. "IGC Report on the Sahel Region", Winds of Change, April 11, 2005. - This is an exhaustive analysis of the threats in the Sahel by Dan Darling.
2. "Diplomatic Murders and the Sahel", The Fourth Rail, July 28, 2005 - A great piece on the link between the Sahel region and Al-Qaeda in Iraq.
3. "WOT: Overlooked but Interesting..." Winds of Change, October 20, 2004 - Another good piece by Dan Darling on the Sahel region.
4. "Islamic Terrorism in the Sahel: Fact or Fiction?", International Crisis Group, March 31, 2005
5. "Rear Admiral Hamlin B. Tallent, USN (Director EUCOM) statement before the House International Relations Committee", US House of Representatives, March 10, 2005
6. "New Counterterrorism Initiative to Focus on Saharan Africa", American Forces Press Services, May 15, 2005.

Al-Zarqawi Killed?

Reader Larwynn sent me earlier today a link to several news stories about a possible shoot-out or explosion with US forces in Mosul that killed 8 terrorists.  There is some hope that one of those killed is Al Qaeda's Iraqi head, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Here are two MSM articles concerning that, one from ABC News and the other from the Guardian Unlimited. 

Bill Roggio, who is now in Kuwait, on his way to Iraq, reports on ThreatsWatch about the rumors and tracksback to a story he wrote on possible successors if he is indeed killed.

Keep following ThreatsWatch for the latest breaking news in Iraq and in the Global War on Terror.

US Military Focused on Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa is a very unstable region and one of great focused concern to US foreign policy and, more specifically, to CENTCOM.

In light of the recent attack by pirates off the coast of Somali against a cruise liner, the importance of the Horn of Africa as a key objective in the Global War on Terror is increasingly apparent.

The Horn of Africa is the northeast portion of Africa. CENTCOM's Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) defines its area of responsibility as Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Yemen and Seychelles and was fielded in 2002. 

A Humanitarian Focus

CJTF, led by Marine Maj. Gen. Timothy Ghormley, is not your typical Joint Task Force.  With over 1,500 soldiers in the task force, its job is more diplomatic than war-fighting.

"Task force commander Marine Maj. Gen. Timothy Ghormley very proudly tells one and all that no one in his command has 'fired a shot in anger,' but the command may have prevented hundreds of young men and women in the region from embracing the terrorist philosophy. 'My combat forces are doctors, veterinarians, engineers and dentists,' Ghormley said during an interview at his headquarters today."

To "win the hearts and minds" of the people in the Horn of Africa, his soldiers perform:

• Humanitarian assistance
• Medical care for those who have no access to it (up to 40 visits)
• Veterinary care of the livestock of regional animals (up to 40 visits)
• Digging wells to provide clean water for villages (11 wells)
• Building and renovating of schools (33 schools)

The structure of CJTF is novel indeed and maybe the future of more such operations.

"Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has called the command a model for the future of DoD. But the task force may become a model for the entire government. Planners are working on a reorganization that would include all agencies that can help."

Other agencies that may be brought in to assist CJTF could include the Department of Justice, Treasury and Agriculture along with the efforts already underway by the US State Department.

Working Multilaterally rather than Unilaterally

Rather than a unilateral approach, the US has stressed the "coalition of the willing" approach. The British, Dutch, French, Romanians and Koreans are among countries taking part.  However, even with a multilateral approach, there are several challenges. This excellent Asia Times Online by Michael A. Weinstein lays out the challenges.

"The danger of the new strategy is that Washington will be drawn into choosing sides in regional and domestic conflicts, and will face backlashes if it supports the losing side...

In a frank appraisal of his mission, Ghormley said that the major requirement for its success and his major difficulty was gaining access to the region's countries, except for Djibouti. Among the four core states of the Horn, the CJTF is barred from Somalia because Washington has ceded responsibility there to the African Union; it is unwelcome in Eritrea, which accuses Washington of backing Ethiopia in the border dispute between the two countries, and it has achieved solid footholds in Ethiopia and Djibouti."

Therefore, the efforts of the task force to build goodwill among the nations it is active in is critical to its long-term success.  Their efforts build goodwill and promote long-term stability in relations between the US and the African nations.

A Generational Mission

The US efforts in the Horn of Africa are visionary, for the mission is not one of days or even years, but is a generational commitment. In a recent press conference with Gen Ghormley, he spoke of the generational component of the mission.

"'What you have is an area that is at the crossroads,' he said. 'You have nations that want to go forward, that want to join the greater population. They wish to become a part of a functioning society. We want to give a regional approach. We want them to be able to enjoy this fidelity and security.'

...The work the military is doing in the Horn of Africa is generational, meaning it will leave a lasting impact, Ghormley said, and it proves that U.S. forces can be used for something other than conflict."

The Horn of Africa is a critical piece in the Global War on Terror, for it is part of an "arc of instability" with a large Muslim population that can and is being radicalized by al-Qaeda.  It is more than a mission to attack terrorists but to reduce the ability for terrorists to recruit new fighters for Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond for suicide bombings and direct attacks on innocent people.

However, Gen. Ghormley's leadership, along with his Marines, are leaving the mission as the US Navy will be taking over the CJTF with an unnamed admiral as its head, allowing the Marines to tackle responsibilities elsewhere (Source Winds of Change).

Additional Source Documents

Rumsfeld and UK Defense Secretary Comments

The US-UK special relationship is the cornerstone of American foreign policy in Europe and arguably the Middle East as well.  This past November 7th, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and UK Secretary of State for Defense John Reid gave a joint news briefing (the full text can be found here).

Sec. Rumsfeld thanked the British:

"Throughout much of modern history, the special relationship between the United States and Great Britain has dealt repeated blows to totalitarianism of various stripes.  The world is safer and our countries are safer because of the uncommon steel of the British people.  We're grateful for our partnership and for your friendship, Mr. Secretary."

Considering PM Tony Blair's extreme costly political efforts on behalf of the special relationship, it was the least the Secretary could say, and his words are well true.

Sec. Reid begins his address touching on the same subject while expanding on the threat faced to Western Civilization:

"I'm delighted to be here, and I hope the fact that we are standing together on so many issues -- which we've discussed today, from Iraq through Afghanistan and the many other theatres where we are working together; more importantly, our service men and women continue to work together -- is a symbol of our enduring relationship.

I think the thing which lies at the heart of that is shared values, and the struggle which is going on on the global sphere at present is indeed a battle of our values.  It is at heart an ideological struggle between those of us who adhere to 21st century values and those who are trying to impose seventh century values in large sections of the world.  Though it is ideological at heart, it manifests itself in the worst forms of terrorism -- innocent civilians targeted indiscriminately by people who have no constraints of morality, conventions or legality.  It therefore makes it a very, very difficult battle for the young service men and women who serve both our countries with such distinction, courage and fortitude."

It is important that the discussion of radical Islam be framed as a battle against the West on a "battle of our values".  From an American perspective, this distinction seems often lost on the European press, not to mention a few US publications as well. Sec. Reid goes on to attack those in the Main Stream Media (MSM) and elsewhere who argue that change in Iraq is going too slow, by putting it in a historical context.

"I've had some people say that the failure to achieve absolute unanimity within 18 months was indeed a failure.  Well, coming from a country, the United Kingdom, which has a similar continual discussion about the nationalities within a nation-state, and now in the 837th year of trying to resolve the Irish settlement in Northern Ireland and the 300 years just having settled the Scottish one, I think the Iraqis have done damn well to get where they have in 18 months quite frankly, Secretary Rumsfeld.  And to see 64 percent of the Iraqi population coming out in the elections, a greater turnout, despite the threats to themselves, than there was in our general election and probably your presidential election, is a sign of encouragement."

While the conference was a good opportunity for the two Secretaries to give their continued view and rationale for the direction of the campaign in Iraq, the question-and-answer session hit upon some interesting topics.

Joint Strike Fighter

Regarding the JSF program, which will be the largest ever US military purchase, spanning the AirForce, Navy and Marines with different versions of the JSF along with orders from the British and Japanese governments, the US commitment was called into question.

"[W]e're pretty confident that the United States, in their own interests, not just in ours, will make the sensible decisions on the Joint Strike Fighter.  It is true, it is a huge part of our future planning.  We don't have forces, or for that matter the budget the size of the United States.  But we do, I believe, have forces that are equipped, capable and active in terms of meeting the modern threats.  And part of that is the ability to reach out, to have sustainable reach.  And that is why we've ordered a final perusal of our plans to build two carriers which are three times the size of anything that we've got at present.  And if we have such carriers to sustain a presence a long distance from the United Kingdom over a long period, we need a good airplane to operate off them.  And the airplane we want to get is the Joint Strike Fighter, and I see no reason at the moment to be worried about that."

Iranian and Syrian Involvement in Iraq

On the issue of Iranian and Syrian involvement against coalition forces in Iraq:

"Q: Mr. Minister, the top British general down in Basra last week said that he was concerned and had solid evidence that Iran was moving technology and materials over into Iraq.  Can you elaborate on that and your concerns, especially in southern Iraq, with these explosives coming across the border?

SEC. REID:  Do you mean General Dutton?

Q:     Dutton.  Yeah.

SEC. REID:  Yeah.  Yeah, well, for obvious reasons I don't want to go into the technicalities of it, but it is our belief that the nature of the devices being used against British troops and possibly elsewhere in Iraq in recent months bear the hallmark of groups like Hezbollah and may well be connected with elements within Iran.  We don't have the evidence that says this is being backed by the Iranian government, but it is nevertheless worrying, and we've made representations to Iran, because it would obviously not be right for a country to be publicly supporting democratic self-determination in Iraq at the same time as it was allowing or in any way encouraging the use of terrorism or violence.

So it's as simple as that; we have put that.  And putting it in a wider context, of course, if we have those worries -- along with the duplicity which Iran has been using in the development of its nuclear capability -- as witnessed not by me or Secretary Rumsfeld, but by the International Atomic Energy Authority, and then the sort of statements that we've seen from the Iranian president about wiping off the face of the map another member state of the United Nations, then all of these items come together and they are worrying."

Australia Anti Terror Measures Nab 17

The results of 16 months of investigation brought forth the arrest of 17 terrorism suspects in Sydney and Melbourne early on Tuesday morning, according to this Washington Post article.  This comes on the heels of major legislation put forward by Prime Minister John Howard to give the government more power in taking down terrorist organizations in the country [see DEL post here]

The attorney for 8 of the suspects "said one of those arrested in Melbourne was the outspoken radical Muslim cleric Abu Bakr, an Algerian-Australian who in the past has called Osama bin Laden a 'great man.'"  The article goes on to describe the new legislation that made the arrests possible:

"Also last week, the Australian Parliament approved an amendment to the country's existing anti-terrorism laws that allows police to arrest people involved in the early stages of planning an unspecified terror attack. Nixon said some of the arrests Tuesday were made possible by the new legislation."

The Australian Courier-Mail reports that computers seized in the raids may be useful in tracking links to this terrorist cell to other cells in foreign countries, though none were directly named.

It appears in initial reports the planned attack was bomb or chemical related, though a location of the attacks has not been identified.  The Global War on Terrorism continues, and this is a clear victory for the Australians and the Western world.

Australia a Terror Target?

Australian Prime Minister John Howard called on parliament to pass legislation quickly to give police broader powers in the War on Terror after his government received specific information regarding a planned attack in his country.

The Age of Australia reports:

"'The government has received specific intelligence and police information this week which gives cause for serious concern about a potential terrorist threat,' he told reporters in Canberra.

'We have seen material. It is a cause of concern.

'We have been given advice that if this amendment is enacted as soon as possible the capacity of the authorities to respond will be strengthened.

'And I am satisfied on what I have been told, and the government and the national security ministers in cabinet are satisfied, that that is the case but I do not intend and cannot and will not go into any of the operational details.'

All state premiers and the federal opposition have agreed to support the changes, which will be rushed through parliament tonight and tomorrow in a special Senate sitting."

It is easy for people to be cynical that Mr. Howard is using this as a ploy to enact tougher laws with little debate.  However, as The Age points out, the legislation has opposition support, which gives credence to the government's claim that it is seriously investigating a terrorist plot.  Given the tragic attacks in nearby Bali against Australians and other non-Muslims, it is good the government and opposition is united in taking all steps possible to thwart an attack.

What Safety Net? - French Riots

Welcome BBC News World Edition "World Have Your Say" listeners and Winds of Change readers.  This is the post referenced on the live interview with Dawn's Early Light on November 2, 2005 (10:30 am PST).  Part II of this post can be found here.

American capitalism is often derided by the socialist nations of Europe, especially the French, for its "ruthlessness".  It is ironic that the French are experiencing their sixth night of violence in the suburbs of Paris.  The riots are in North African Muslim immigrant neighborhoods and are being framed as a result of chronic youth unemployment. 

A summary of the damage done from the riots according to this Washington Post article:

• Fires in 9 towns
• 15 burned cars in Aulnay-sous-Bois, 69 total vehicles
• Molotov cocktails thrown at Aulnay-sous-Bois's courthouse and fire station
• Stone throwing rioters clashing with police
• Local businesses set on fire
• Over 150 individual fires reported including a primary school

The region of France with the riots is north to northwest of Paris, in the suburbs.

The Root Causes

France's socialist policies are working against their immigrant communities.   In an article from last November, The Economist states:

"The French model has not sheltered its people from poverty as sturdily as is often claimed. Despite devoting 30% of its GDP to social spending, among the highest shares in Europe, France's poverty rate (after social transfers) is not much below that in Britain, and is higher than in Finland or Sweden. Young people, unqualified and often Muslim, are isolated in the grim tower blocks that ring France's cities, which are becoming fertile recruiting grounds for radical Islam.

Some elements of the French public sector are efficient, but not all. The state spends 54.7% of GDP, compared with 44% in Britain. Too many people, filling in too much paper, enforcing too many rules and extracting too many taxes; the system is unsustainably piling up debt for future generations.

A heavy price is paid in job creation, too. High non-wage employment costs, coupled with tight redundancy rules, mean that companies make do with small payrolls. If hotels and restaurants employed proportionately as many people in France as they do in America, says the Camdessus report, the country would create 3.2m extra jobs overnight—albeit the sort of low-paid “McJobs” at which French governments tend to sneer. Over-protection of permanent jobs has prompted employers to recruit increasingly on precarious short-term contracts: these now account for over three-quarters of new jobs created. This two-tier job market particularly traps the young and low-skilled."

French socialism, to protect the domestic population from capitalism, Anglo-Saxon style, instead is producing a country with high unemployment, chronically around 10%.  In the same Economist article above, the results of these policies are compared versus the Anglo-Saxon model:

"For 20 years, France's unemployment rate has been stuck between 8% and 10%. The young and the (not so) old are largely shut out of work. The employment rate among under-25s is now just 24%, where the OECD average is 44%, but that of 55-64-year-olds is 34%, compared with 50% in other OECD countries."

Inverting the number of employed above leaves a stunning 76% of French youth unemployed!

"Between 1980 and 2003, the total number of hours worked in America jumped by 39%, and in Britain by 8%; in France, it fell by 6%. This by itself almost entirely explains the differing economic growth rates over the same period in these three countries."

Needless to say each country's GDP relates a similar response, with the US increasing by 100%, the UK by about 75% and France by less than 60% over the 23-year period cited above.  France is failing on providing jobs to its citizens and, maybe more importantly, to its Muslim immigrants, which is creating an opening for those who preach radical Islam to find more terrorists. 

France's largest contribution to winning the Global War on Terror would be reforming its own economy and giving economic hope to its immigrants.  There is a growing divide between France and the Anglo-Saxon way, and the riots outside Paris are just the beginning spark of worse fires to come.

Update: Famed international relations professor and thinker Francis Fukuyama writes a brilliant piece in the WSJ (November 2, 2005) that frames my above argument in a more cogent way.

"Contemporary Europeans downplay national identity in favor of an open, tolerant, 'post-national' Europeanness. But the Dutch, Germans, French and others all retain a strong sense of their national identity, and, to differing degrees, it is one that is not accessible to people coming from Turkey, Morocco or Pakistan. Integration is further inhibited by the fact that rigid European labor laws have made low-skill jobs hard to find for recent immigrants or their children. A significant proportion of immigrants are on welfare, meaning that they do not have the dignity of contributing through their labor to the surrounding society. They and their children understand themselves as outsiders.

It is in this context that someone like Osama bin Laden appears, offering young converts a universalistic, pure version of Islam that has been stripped of its local saints, customs and traditions. Radical Islamism tells them exactly who they are--respected members of a global Muslim umma to which they can belong despite their lives in lands of unbelief."

The whole piece is well worth reading.  While it helps explain why radical Islam is appealing in Europe, it doesn't address why radical Islam is appealing in the Muslim world where religion is a part of the state.  While he doesn't address the economic aspect of radical Islam's attractiveness in Europe, he does make a sound cultural argument.

Send Bill Roggio to Iraq

Tired of what you read in the Main Stream Media about Iraq and want a firsthand, reliable account?

Well, now you can do something about it!  Bill Roggio of the 4th Rail is embarking on an exciting adventure.  He is taking a leave of absence and is going to go to Iraq for a month to report firsthand.  As a former US Army soldier, he will be in good company as he will be with Regimental Combat Team - 2, 2nd Marine Division.

However, Bill needs our support.  Please visit his blog or click the link to the right and give him your financial support.  Read his post here and click on the PayPal link.  It will be the best money you spend all day.  Bill's commentary on Iraq is literally second to none.  My wife and I are contributing, and I strongly encourage you to do so.

Keep him and his family in your prayers as he prepares to leave his job unpaid for the month and gather support for his trip over to Iraq.

I plan on posting more information about his trip and his new adventure with ThreatsWatch.org as information becomes available.

Update for Bloggers who support Bill Roggio.  Please feel free to use the button above.  For information on how to use it:

1) Copy image onto your server (this will save me some bandwith)

2) This is the code I used "<a href="http://billroggio.com/archives /2005/10/a_journey_to_an_1.php><img title="Billroggio_iraq" alt="Support Bill Roggio's Trip to Iraq" src="http://[INSERT YOUR FILE LOCATION OF IMAGE HERE]" border="0" /></a>"

If you would like a different file size or format, email me at the link on the upper left, and I will send it to you. 

The GWoT Hits London

The terror attacks in London today, composed of 4 separate bombings, with 3 to the London Underground and 1 to a commuter bus, during the G-8 summit in Scotland, is a painful and tragic reminder of the importance of fighting and winning the Global War on Terror.  I will post more on the subject as more information develops.  However, I would like to point you to President Bush's words from the G-8 Summit:

"The contrast between what we've seen on the TV screens here, what's taken place in London and what's taking place here is incredibly vivid to me. On the one hand, we have people here who are working to alleviate poverty, to help rid the world of the pandemic of AIDS, working on ways to have a clean environment. And on the other hand, you've got people killing innocent people. And the contrast couldn't be clearer between the intentions and the hearts of those of us who care deeply about human rights and human liberty, and those who kill -- those who have got such evil in their heart that they will take the lives of innocent folks.

The war on terror goes on. I was most impressed by the resolve of all the leaders in the room. Their resolve is as strong as my resolve. And that is we will not yield to these people, will not yield to the terrorists. We will find them, we will bring them to justice, and at the same time, we will spread an ideology of hope and compassion that will overwhelm their ideology of hate."

The long-term question of the bombings is what effect it will have on the UK effort to prosecute the GWoT and the reaction of other industrialized powers.  In the meantime, my prayers and sympathies are with the families of the murdered and injured.

Other great sources for following events today:

• Google News
• Winds of Change (Bill Roggio's comments here)
• Instapundit
• The Command Post

According to the British Embassy in the US:

"Inquiries concerning US citizens should be directed to the US State Department. The telephone number is 1-888-407-4747.  The emergency hotline number for British citizens is 011 44 870 156 6344."

Update: Text of PM Tony Blair's comments here.

Predator UAV Kills Terrorist

Score another one for the CIA and Predator UAV for killing an Al-Qaeda bomb maker in Pakistan.  ABC News has this exclusive:

"A senior al Qaeda operative was killed by a missile fired from a CIA Predator aircraft on the Pakistani side of the remote area near the Afghan border earlier this week, U.S. intelligence officials told ABC News.

Haitham al-Yemeni, a native of Yemen known for his bomb-making skills, had been tracked for some time in the hope that he would help lead the United States to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, intelligence officials said. But with the recent capture in northwest Pakistan of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, thought to be al Qaeda's No. 3 man, officials worried al-Yemeni would soon go into hiding, and decided to take action."

Sounds like a good call.  Capture the No. 3 man and then kill the bomb maker.  Gary Schroen, former senior CIA agent and Author of "First In" said Sunday on Meet the Press he was hopeful that bin Laden would be found within 3 to 4 months:

"MR. SCHROEN:  I think with the capture of Al-Libbi recently--gives some hope that the Pakistanis will cooperate if we put enough pressure on them, and maybe we end up doing it unilaterally but I think we're going to get him within the next three to four months.

MR. RUSSERT:  Three to four months.

MR. SCHROEN:  Well, that's my hope."

I pray he is right.  However, this is good news on the Global War on Terror.  Hopefully the Pakistanis will continue to prove helpful.