By Dawn's Early Light

Asia Summary

For Dawn's Early Light readers interested in Asia, here are some articles worthy of mention, though due to my cold I will not be able to provide the normal longer commentary.  However, they are well worth reading and mentioning in this space.

Japan Draft Constitutional Changes Strengthens Military

"Japan's Draft Charter Redefines Military", Washington Post, November 23, 2005

"The governing Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday released a draft revision of Japan's pacifist constitution that for the first time since World War II would recognize the country's armed forces as a fully functioning military...

The constitutional draft would broaden the government's ability to send forces overseas; such an order now requires special legislation in parliament.

The revision also opens the door to a broader interpretation of the constitution, permitting what some call "collective self-defense" -- or coming to the military aid of other countries. The most likely beneficiary would be Japan's closest ally, the United States, which has urged Japan to adopt such measures. Changes in Japan's constitutional status would have major significance in the region, particularly in the event of a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan."

DEL posted on this development in "What is Japan's Asia Strategy? (Part II)" on October 29, 2005.  After PM Koizumi's crushing September 11, 2005 electoral victory and his ability to purge his LPD party members that were unsupportive, he is in a good position to continue steps towards strengthening the US-Japanese alliance as well as contain China over issues such as Taiwan and check China's growing military strength.

India to unveil new thinking on foreign investment

The Financial Times (subscription required) writes an article on the above title that is important with respect to India's goals in catching up to China and put some extra horsepower into their economy.

"India’s Communist-backed government will on Thursday afternoon consider a sweeping liberalisation of foreign direct investment rules that would kick start a long-stalled programme of economic reforms.

Kamal Nath, India’s minister for commerce and industry, has proposed allowing 100 per cent foreign direct investment in a range of sectors, including airport construction, oil & gas infrastructure and cash & carry wholesale trading."

Indonesia to Again Receive US Military Support

The US wants Indonesia back in its sphere of influence and not that of the Russians or Chinese.  Goodwill created by the US in the wake of last year's devastating tsunami helped US standing in Indonesia.  This, coupled with its strategic importance as the largest Muslim nation, is the reason for the aggressive US diplomatic move.  The Asia Times Online reports:

"Citing 'national security interests' and noting that Indonesia plays a strategic role in Southeast Asia and is a 'voice of moderation in the Islamic world', the US State Department jumped the gun on Tuesday and lifted a Congress-approved arms embargo against Indonesia.

With East Timor now independent and Aceh no longer a theater of war, Indonesia's pressing need is to upgrade its armed forces to cope with internal security, fight terrorism, guard vital sea lanes, protect the country's numerous oil and gas platforms from terrorist strikes and enforce its maritime boundaries to prevent foreign trawlers from poaching its resources.

Smuggling, illegal fishing and maritime piracy are rife in Indonesian waters, and the addition of more sophisticated vessels will go a long way to curbing these threats...After discussions with President George W Bush, Yudhyono, an ex-general, told a news conference, "I am not pleading for a resumption. We deserve it because we have undergone a reform in our military, with an emphasis on respecting human rights and democracy."

The bulk of Indonesia's hardware is US-made and the TNI - as the army is called - suffers shortages as it can't get replacements and spares.

As a result, Jakarta has increasingly turned to Moscow. After Yudhyono's discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it was announced that both leaders had agreed to start up intensive negotiations on setting up a joint production facility for certain sophisticated military equipment and to develop a national defense industry in cash-strapped Indonesia."

Read the whole article for the details on Indonesia's Type 209-class submarines, Ahmed Yani-class ships, Tribal-class frigates, Claude Jones-class frigates, F-5 fighter and A-4 attack planes, F-16As, Su-27SKs Su-30MK fighters and Hawk 209 light attack jets.

China's Awkward Relations with the EU

DEL has written before on the failure of Chinese foreign policy to lift the arms embargo from the European Union (thanks to a strong US diplomatic effort against French profit motives).  Another Asia Times Online piece discusses the EU-French-Sino relationship.

"The recent state visits by President Hu Jintao to the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain are the latest steps in a continuing effort by the Chinese government and its European counterparts to strengthen their ties, but they also demonstrate some of the contradictions China faces in dealing with Europe and its constituent member states.

Both the European Union and China have described their relationship as strategic, although sometimes this seems no more than a hyperbolic way of saying each considers the other important. It is perhaps true that the relationship is more strategic for China than the EU. The promotion of multipolarity is one of the key foreign policy aims of the Chinese government, and the EU is a crucial element in the policy." 

The piece discusses UK, German and French positions within the EU trade and military policy regarding China. 

Hope you enjoy the articles.

Rumsfeld's Asian Perspective

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave an important speech in Singapore at the International Institute for Strategic Studies on June 4, 2005.  His message to the 19 other defense ministers from around the Pacific Rim and parts of Europe and North America is important from many perspectives.  Sec. Rumsfeld expanded on 1) democratic progress, 2) the the War on Terror, 3) future threats to the US from China and 4) the US effort to grow Pacific alliances.

Democratic Successes

"Much has changed in the world since we met here last year.    The past year has been a time of promise as the people of Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine,  Kyrgyzstan,  Lebanon,  and elsewhere have demanded at ballot boxes the freedom that they deserve.    Dictatorships around the world are losing sway, as more and more people recognize the greater opportunities a life of freedom affords  --  economic freedom and political freedom as well."

Mr. Rumsfeld affirms the core focus of US foreign policy in promoting democratic reforms.  The first two of the five countries he lists were the direct result of US military intervention, the other 3 are a byproduct and response to US efforts in Afganistan and Iraq.  The fruits of American military efforts have spread beyond just the countries with US forces deployed by encouraging a democratic movement through the Middle East and beyond.

War on Terror

Sec. Rumsfeld, while giving a speech on the US focus beyond the War on Terror, was quick to point out:

"But that might have suggested that the War on Terror  --  the struggle against extremism  --  is over.    It is not over.    Violent extremists continue to pose a danger to civilized nations,  and we need to work together to recognize that the threat is a serious one.

The United States is working with many of the nations represented here in this room in Iraq as well as in Afghanistan,  helping their people build countries that will no longer pose a threat to the international order."

The threat of WMD, unstable regimes such as North Korea, and terrorist organizations may have been reduced, but by no means eliminated.

"Perhaps the greatest impetus for modernization and cooperation is the specter of lethal threats confronting all free nations.    Among them is the toxic combination of dangerous weapons,  rogue regimes that seek to export those weapons,  and violent extremists determined to destabilize civilized societies and kill men, women, and children."

Winning the War on Terror is vital for US and our democratic allies' national security.  Losing focus on this war will only make America more vulnerable to future threats.

Freeing the Rising Dragon

China, as a non-democratic nation, is a potential threat to US security interests and the economic and strategic interests of its Asian neighbors.  Mr. Rumsfeld expands on the US desire for greater liberty and reform in Asia:

"A nation that expects its people to unleash their productive energies into the economy  --  but stifles free expression  --  will eventually have to choose between tyranny and progress.    A society that supports political reform  --  but fails to protect its citizens or provide security for them  --  encourages instability and civil strife.    And a secure state that permits neither political nor economic freedom is a system that, in the end, may fall to its understandably restive people."

The heart of his speech with respect to China tackles the double-digit growth in Chinese military spending.

"Although the Cold War is over, this region,  unfortunately,  is still burdened by some old rivalries;  and military budgets are escalating in some quarters.  These are matters that should be of concern.

China’s emergence is an important new reality in this era.   

Indeed, the world would welcome a China committed to peaceful solutions and whose industrious and well-educated people contribute to international peace and mutual prosperity. 

A candid discussion of China, however,  cannot neglect to mention areas of concern to the region.

The U.S. Congress requires that the U.S. Department of Defense report annually on China’s perceived military strategy and its military modernization.     The Department’s 2005 report is scheduled to be released soon. 

Among other things, the report concludes that China’s defense expenditures are much higher than Chinese officials have published.    It is estimated that China’s is the third largest military budget in the world, and clearly the largest in Asia.
 
China appears to be expanding its missile forces, allowing them to reach targets in many areas of the world, not just the Pacific region, while also expanding its missile capabilities within this region.  China also is improving its ability to project power,  and developing advanced systems of military technology.

Since no nation threatens China, one must wonder:

• Why this growing investment?
• Why these continuing large and expanding arms purchases?
• Why these continuing robust deployments?"

The three questions asked and the concerns raised by their potential answers are driving other Asian nations into the US sphere of influence to counter a more aggressive and assertive China.  From Japan's strengthening of military ties with the US to Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia's agreement to have the US patrol the oil rich Malacca Straits, to major US overtures towards India, China's emergence is not bringing stability to the region.  This is leading to the US having a golden opportunity to expand its alliances and partnerships in Asia.

Expanding Alliances

While tragic, the December 2004 tsunami afforded the US military an opportunity to work towards humanitarian goals with its Asian neighbors and build goodwill.  It is important to note the countries Mr. Rumsfeld points to in working to solve the crisis outside of the regular NGO and UN organizations:

• "India not only met the needs of its own people;  but,  to its credit,  it also sent troops to help to distribute aid in Sri Lanka;
• Thailand,  despite its own casualties and tragedy,  quickly consented to the use of its bases to serve as the combined support facilities for the relief efforts;
• Malaysia made its airfields available,  facilitating logistical support;  and
• Singapore was first on the scene with life-saving aid,  offering the use of its airfields and port facilities.

Years of bilateral and multilateral meetings and cooperative operations made possible this swift,  team response  --  as  America’s military joined quickly with Australia,  Singapore,  Thailand,  Indonesia,  and many others to provide assistance."

The countries in bold are important for they all are nations that the United States has advanced  diplomatic and military ties with in 2005 from Sec. of State Rice's and Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick's 12-nation tours, to US military vists as well.  These nations represent old and new allies not only in the War on Terror but in the US efforts to contain China.

"From time to time,  some question the priority America places on its Pacific partnerships.    Yet the atmosphere in the tsunami’s aftermath  --  as well as the recent earthquake in Nias  --  demonstrated again that whenever friends and allies in this region confront threats or hardship  --  whether caused by man or by nature  --  we stand at their side.   

These long relationships among nations -- the nations of the Pacific -- led many in this hemisphere to pledge support to the American people after the attacks of 9/11.    And we are deeply grateful.    I am confident that our long friendships will continue to unite us against the common threats ahead."

While it is easy to pass by this statement, it is important.  The US stands by its allies and Mr. Rumsfeld is making clear that the US will continue to work strategically to build a prosperous Asia by backing our allies from future threats.

This year will be a very important year in US foreign policy as we seek to consolidate our successes in the Middle East and promote democracy around the world.  The alliances the US strengthens this year, because of the example demonstrated by its steadfastness in supporting its allies, will be pivotal for securing a leadership role in the new century.

US Center of Gravity Continues to Shift in Asia

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is on his way today to Singapore to meet with 19 other defense ministers to discuss regional Asian security concerns, including North Korea.  Sec. Rumsfeld has added China to the list of topics he will be discussing with American allies at the Shangri-la Dialogue 2005 Conference hosted by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. 

Sec. Rumsfeld is to give a speech on "The US and Asia-Pacific Security Beyond the War on Terrorism" (conference schedule).  This will be an important address before a diverse body of regional players interested in the future of Asia.  Mr. Rumsfeld made some interesting comments regarding North Korea, China and India prior to leaving on Friday:

North Korea

• "Our policy is what it is, and it's well-known." [2]

China

• "With respect to China, it's not completely clear which way they're going because of the tension... between the nature of their political system and the nature of their economic system." [1]
• "With respect to the Peoples Republic of China, it is what it is. It's a big country, with a fairly rapid growth rate.... Its defense budget is growing apace with their economy, and they are a major weapons purchaser in the world, largely from Russia but from other countries as well, and have been deploying a great many ballistic missiles and ships and other military capabilities over a period of years now.... The tension will grow as they move through the years. To the extent that the Republic of China leans toward a freer political system, they will be a considerably more successful country and a more influential country in the world. To the extent they don't do that, there will be pressures against their economy, they will grow less fast, and they will be a less influential country in the world." [1]
• "As a matter of fact, a portion of our Quadrennial Defense Review has to look at the more conventional threats in the world, and we all know that China's economy's growing rapidly.  We know it's been investing in double digits in its military capabilities, that it's been buying a great deal of weaponry from Russia.  And it's a country that is going to reach a fork in the road.  It wants to grow its economy, and to do that it has to have a relatively free economic system, and it wants to maintain its strong control over the political side of its government, which is inconsistent with having a free economic system. So they're going to feel that tension, that stress in the years ahead." [3]

India

• "It's pretty clear where India's going, and one would anticipate the relationship with India will continue to strengthen as we go through the period ahead...."[1]
• "'We have what I would characterize as an excellent relationship with India. From a military-to-military standpoint it has improved in strength every year over the past four and a half years.' The military relationship, which has included joint exercises, 'has been very much leading the other aspects of the relationship, which is a good thing. We are finding many things to cooperate on,' he said. Calling India a 'major power,' the secretary highlighted its standing as the world's largest democracy, its 'relatively free economic system,' and its educated population."[1]

What is important to note in the reports above (the AP and AFP reports completely missed Sec. Rumsfeld's quotes on India) is that it demonstrates the US long-term policy of promoting democratic India over Communist China.  His comments are in line with Sec. of State Rice's comments and overtures towards India (See DEL here).  The title of Mr. Rumsfeld's speech also speaks to a forward-looking US position after the War on Terror.  The terrorism address for the conference is being given by defense ministers from Australia, Singapore and the Philippines.  It is also interesting to note that the only other US-given speech is from Admiral William Fallon, Commander, US Pacific Command, on "Enhancing Maritime Security", which includes the Malaysian defense minister.  Since the US and Malaysia just came to terms about the US patrolling the oil-important Malacca Straits (see here and here), their joint presentation can be seen as a signal to China as well.

The US is shifting forcefully its center of gravity in Asia to India with a firm commitment and alliance with Japan and Australia to contain China at worst and hopefully encourage greater democracy in China at best.  Mr. Rumsfeld's speech, given his comments, will be very telling indeed of US foreign policy goals "after the War on Terror".

Bonus Report on North Korea:  ABC News is reporting

"Rumsfeld would not discuss whether the Pentagon is planning for military options if North Korea goes ahead with a nuclear test. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other Bush administration officials have said they are worried such a test could set off a nuclear arms race in Asia.

North Korea has condemned a U.S. plan to send 15 F-117A Nighthawk stealth fighters to South Korea. The Pentagon said last week the move was part of a long-planned training exercise. Also last week, Washington suspended its program to search for Korean War dead in North Korea, saying the situation there was too dangerous for the American search teams.

Statements from the North's official Korea Central News Agency have been in conflict this week. North Korea first called Vice President Dick Cheney a 'bloodthirsty beast' in response to his telling CNN that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was irresponsible and oppressive. Then North Korea offered rare praise of President Bush for referring to Kim as 'Mister' during a news conference."

The US is sending 15 F-117As to South Korea and suspending its Korean War dead operations in the North, and then North Korea praises "Mr." Bush.  Could the US be sending a more clear signal to North Korea to come back to the six-party talks?

Sources:

[1] Times of India
[2] ABC News
[3] DOD News (This was a part of a radio interview on June 1, 2005)

US Foreign Policy Successes

I have posted a good deal on Dawn's Early Light regarding the US goal of containing China and building strong relationships with Asian countries.  Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick recently returned from a 6-nation tour of Asia.  Evelyn Goh of the Asia Times has this fascinating article that praises Mr. Zoellick's efforts.

"For those who have been wondering what the second George W. Bush administration has in store for Southeast Asia, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick's recent eight-day visit to the region was encouraging. Above all, it was a significant display of the kind of diplomacy that too many have ceased to expect from the United States after Bush's first term. Following Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visits to Northeast and South Asia in March, the deputy secretary's visit reassured Southeast Asia that it remains on Washington's radar screen. Symbolically, Zoellick observed the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II in the Asian theater, at Corrigedor in the Philippines.

In terms of style, Zoellick was impressive. At various stops, he stated his interest in 'consulting with our [Southeast Asian] partners, sharing some ideas and listening to their thoughts about the direction for the next four years'. The emphasis on consultation and listening regarding issues of common concern was accompanied by material aid in the form of a substantial post-tsunami reconstruction package for Indonesia and promises of help with economic liberalization in Vietnam. When he publicly discussed thorny issues, such as Myanmar's upcoming chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) [See DEL prior comments here and here] and religious freedom in Vietnam, Zoellick was diplomatic: he appeared firm but not overbearing or hectoring. More important, in terms of substance, the deputy secretary made all the right noises about issues most important to the region while taking a broader and more consultative approach to the key issue for the US - terrorism."

The article requires little commentary yet I would like to highlight several key goals attained by the US with various countries in the region.  Mr. Zoellick is an impressive representative of US foreign policy because of his background.

"The emphasis on economic issues during Zoellick's trip was particularly appreciated in a region that has labored under the US foreign-policy banner of the "second front" in the war against terrorism since 2002. As a former US trade representative (2001-2005) responsible for negotiating a wide range of trade agreements, including the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement and the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, Zoellick is familiar with the economic and developmental imperative in Southeast Asia."

Here are the highlights by country, according to Ms. Goh, of his recent trip:

Singapore

• Mr. Zoellick spoke of working out a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries and contrasted the opportunity against Chinese efforts: "he was also careful to explain that US FTAs take a longer time to negotiate as they are more comprehensive than agreements offered by other countries such as China."
• The US has invited the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Washington DC within the next two months.  This invitation was also extended to Vietnamese Prime Minister Phan Van Khai and Indonesia's leader, Yudhoyono (See Marvin's piece here)

Malaysia

• Mr. Zoellick made efforts to establishing an FTA.
• He expanded cultural ties to Malaysia in a sensitive way: "He spent time in Malaysia talking to Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi about Islam hadhari, or 'civilizational Islam', and consulting with scholars and members of religious parties and human-rights groups, suggesting that the country held lessons for Iraq and Palestine."
• Not reported in the article, but nevertheless extremely important, was the agreement to allow the US navy to patrol the oil sensitive Malacca Strait.

Indonesia

• Mr. Zoellick attempted to build upon America's goodwill generated after the devastating December 2004 Tsunami.  America's efforts stand in contrast to China's as noted: "He duly traveled to Aceh, where he signed an agreement to build a US$245 million road along the devastated province's western coast. The deputy secretary also pledged a broader economic development assistance package for Indonesia, committing $73.7 million over the next five years. This offer by the US comes on the heels of China's recent pledge of $5 million in assistance and $300 million in low-interest loans for reconstruction in Indonesia's disaster zones."
• He pressed for Indonesia to revive its lead role in ASEAN, especially given the possibility that Myanmar (formerly Burma) is set to take the rotating lead role, which is an issue to the US given their horrific human rights abuses.  As Ms. Goh states: "This is because of the confluence of three factors conducive to American interests: the desire to support democratically elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono; the recognized importance of Indonesia as the world's largest, and relatively moderate, Muslim country; and Jakarta's support for an open, inclusive Asian regionalism that will not exclude the US."
• The door for a possible resumption of US-Indonesian military ties were likely discussed though no agreements were announced.

Thailand

• Mr. Zoellick lent credibility and stature to Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Sihinawatra's efforts to play a positive mediator role in the US-ASEAN concerns regarding Myanmar.
• Mr. Zoellick made efforts to establishing an FTA.

The United States, through its use of deft soft-power politics, a readily world-apparent view of its hard power on display internationally, and the able efforts of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, has made good progress in expanding on relations in an extremely important region.  Ms. Goh's final comments explain the opportunities and success the US has in Southeast Asia and what it translates to regarding China.

"By demonstrating that Washington recognizes the economic imperative of the region, that it would rather peacefully compete with Chinese economic influence in Southeast Asia, and that it can address more sensitively top US strategic priorities that are shared by these nations but subject to domestic constraints and sensitivities, Zoellick has performed a significant service in boosting US relations with the region.

Certainly, Southeast Asia will keep a sharp eye out for concrete results, especially regarding the progress of FTA negotiations with Thailand and Malaysia and the resumption of military ties between the US and Indonesia. For now, however, if the renewed diplomacy demonstrated by Zoellick reflects the Bush administration's attitude toward the region, we may be looking forward to fruitful US-ASEAN relations for the next four years."

While the Mainstream Media focuses on the Koran and the NYT editorializes about the failed US policy towards China, real diplomacy is producing results and laying the important groundwork for the US to retain its central role in promoting personal and economic freedoms in an important part of the world.

A Post Eaten But Content Worth Readin'

I wrote a long post and analysis tonight on this AFP (Agence Francaise de Presse) article "US eyes Indonesia, Vietnam as potential strategic allies in Southeast Asia".  It was unfortunately eaten by my blog interface TypePad. 

Here is a quick summary:

1. Deputy Sec. of State Robert Zoellick is traveling to Southeast Asia on an important trip.  Here is the State Departments press release: "Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick will travel to Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines May 2-11.  He will be seeking the perspectives of these countries on a variety of economic, political, and security issues, as well as presenting ideas on how we might strengthen ties in President Bush’s second term."
2. The US is moving forward its economic ties by offering Vietnam WTO support in exchange for advancing military coordination.  The purpose of this is the containment of China, much like the US is doing with India, Japan and Australia.  According to AFP, "Strong US-Vietnam relations will be an effective bulwark against any Chinese regional military expansion while Indonesia is crucial in the US 'war on terror,' of which predominantly-Muslim Southeast Asia is seen as a key front, analysts say."
3. US goodwill in Indonesia is on the rise after recent lows because of the US response to the tsunami disaster. 

   Speaking of Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick, AFP writes, "Washington also wishes to help Indonesia regain its leadership role in ASEAN, the third largest market for US exports and a key American investment destination, he said."

   The article continues, "Until recently, Indonesia, the largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) state and the world's most populous Muslim nation, had taken a backseat in the grouping since being gripped by a 1997-1998 financial crisis that sparked leadership changes and democratic reforms.

   "The US initiatives 'relate to the larger point about starting to lay the foundation for the second term (of the Bush administration) on relations with ASEAN,' Zoellick said. "

I regret losing my original post, but the content of the article is well worth reading.  The US is expanding on its China containment policy.