By Dawn's Early Light

Kim Jong-il in a Bunker Listening to the Smiths

"ASK ME, ASK ME, ASK ME
Because if it's not love
Then it's the bomb
the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb, the bomb
That will bring us together" - The Smiths' song 'Ask'

On America's Independence Day, the North Korean Dear Leader, Kim Jong-il, attempted and succeeded in some fireworks of his own, with a failed ballistic missile launch.  I couldn't help but imagine frizzy hair, bugged-eyed Kim, in some North Korean bunker, listening to the Smiths' "Ask" song, once again miscalculating the world around him outside of his Hermit Kingdom.  While neither the world, or Kim's neighbors, may love him, his desire for a bomb surely can bring the world together.

The Context

The United States had tracked the fueling and preparation of a potential test launch of the North Korean Taepodong 2 ICBM over the past weeks.  This missile is an upgrade to the 1998 Taepodong 1 missile fired over Japan.  The Taepodong 2 has an estimated range of 6,700 km (4,200 miles) and can carry up to a 1,000 kg warhead. (For a history of North Korean missile development and its arsenal, see this excellent Asia Times story).  The North Koreans fired this missile along with 6 others (of lesser strategic value) over a two-day period.  This is in violation of their 2002 pledge not to test missiles.

What Does it All Mean?

1. North Korea's ability to sell "sophisticated" weapons for hard currency may be in greater jeopardy than before the test firing. The failure of the test is a great humiliation to the North Koreans. Possibly more North Korean missiles will rust in warehouses of weary buyers, like with the UAE in 1989.

2. North Korea has given the populations of South Korea and Japan one more great reminder of why a military partnership with the United States is in their strategic national interest.  While Russia and China will not support economic sanctions for the test firing, the international community has roundly condemned the launch.

3. Missile defense will only increase by regional players, including India, which is deciding between the US Patriot-3 system and the Israeli (with American support) Arrow missile defense system.

4. China, which blocked any UN announcement after the 1998 test firing, has allowed the issue before the whole Security Council, especially as they hold a critical seat as a sponsor of the 6-party talks that the North Koreans refuse to attend. 

5. US defense coordination with its allies in the region will only continue, along with the R&D required to continue to field a viable defense.

6. North Korean promises, statements and agreements are less reliable than their Taepodong 2 missile.

It is hard to see how the North Korean regime comes out ahead, based on this failed display of power.  For people who had no interest in the realpolitik arguments of deterrence and national security, they are taking another look and seeking protection from their governments.  This can only lead to greater international security cooperation in Asia with the United States.  A growing consensus is emerging that the threat of a North Korean nuclear "bomb" is bringing the world together.

International Commentary for additional reading

Australia - "Test Firing Linked to Closure of Foreign Banking Channels"
                "Rouge's Missile Menace"

Russia - "Russia blasts N. Korea over missile tests, balks at sanctions"

Philippines - "Politicians agree N. Korea missile launch worrisome"

India - "North Korean Missile tests Suit India"

Japan - "North Korea Launches 7 Missiles"
            "North Korean move triggers annoyance, bewilderment across Japan"

Asia Summary

For Dawn's Early Light readers interested in Asia, here are some articles worthy of mention, though due to my cold I will not be able to provide the normal longer commentary.  However, they are well worth reading and mentioning in this space.

Japan Draft Constitutional Changes Strengthens Military

"Japan's Draft Charter Redefines Military", Washington Post, November 23, 2005

"The governing Liberal Democratic Party on Tuesday released a draft revision of Japan's pacifist constitution that for the first time since World War II would recognize the country's armed forces as a fully functioning military...

The constitutional draft would broaden the government's ability to send forces overseas; such an order now requires special legislation in parliament.

The revision also opens the door to a broader interpretation of the constitution, permitting what some call "collective self-defense" -- or coming to the military aid of other countries. The most likely beneficiary would be Japan's closest ally, the United States, which has urged Japan to adopt such measures. Changes in Japan's constitutional status would have major significance in the region, particularly in the event of a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan."

DEL posted on this development in "What is Japan's Asia Strategy? (Part II)" on October 29, 2005.  After PM Koizumi's crushing September 11, 2005 electoral victory and his ability to purge his LPD party members that were unsupportive, he is in a good position to continue steps towards strengthening the US-Japanese alliance as well as contain China over issues such as Taiwan and check China's growing military strength.

India to unveil new thinking on foreign investment

The Financial Times (subscription required) writes an article on the above title that is important with respect to India's goals in catching up to China and put some extra horsepower into their economy.

"India’s Communist-backed government will on Thursday afternoon consider a sweeping liberalisation of foreign direct investment rules that would kick start a long-stalled programme of economic reforms.

Kamal Nath, India’s minister for commerce and industry, has proposed allowing 100 per cent foreign direct investment in a range of sectors, including airport construction, oil & gas infrastructure and cash & carry wholesale trading."

Indonesia to Again Receive US Military Support

The US wants Indonesia back in its sphere of influence and not that of the Russians or Chinese.  Goodwill created by the US in the wake of last year's devastating tsunami helped US standing in Indonesia.  This, coupled with its strategic importance as the largest Muslim nation, is the reason for the aggressive US diplomatic move.  The Asia Times Online reports:

"Citing 'national security interests' and noting that Indonesia plays a strategic role in Southeast Asia and is a 'voice of moderation in the Islamic world', the US State Department jumped the gun on Tuesday and lifted a Congress-approved arms embargo against Indonesia.

With East Timor now independent and Aceh no longer a theater of war, Indonesia's pressing need is to upgrade its armed forces to cope with internal security, fight terrorism, guard vital sea lanes, protect the country's numerous oil and gas platforms from terrorist strikes and enforce its maritime boundaries to prevent foreign trawlers from poaching its resources.

Smuggling, illegal fishing and maritime piracy are rife in Indonesian waters, and the addition of more sophisticated vessels will go a long way to curbing these threats...After discussions with President George W Bush, Yudhyono, an ex-general, told a news conference, "I am not pleading for a resumption. We deserve it because we have undergone a reform in our military, with an emphasis on respecting human rights and democracy."

The bulk of Indonesia's hardware is US-made and the TNI - as the army is called - suffers shortages as it can't get replacements and spares.

As a result, Jakarta has increasingly turned to Moscow. After Yudhyono's discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, it was announced that both leaders had agreed to start up intensive negotiations on setting up a joint production facility for certain sophisticated military equipment and to develop a national defense industry in cash-strapped Indonesia."

Read the whole article for the details on Indonesia's Type 209-class submarines, Ahmed Yani-class ships, Tribal-class frigates, Claude Jones-class frigates, F-5 fighter and A-4 attack planes, F-16As, Su-27SKs Su-30MK fighters and Hawk 209 light attack jets.

China's Awkward Relations with the EU

DEL has written before on the failure of Chinese foreign policy to lift the arms embargo from the European Union (thanks to a strong US diplomatic effort against French profit motives).  Another Asia Times Online piece discusses the EU-French-Sino relationship.

"The recent state visits by President Hu Jintao to the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain are the latest steps in a continuing effort by the Chinese government and its European counterparts to strengthen their ties, but they also demonstrate some of the contradictions China faces in dealing with Europe and its constituent member states.

Both the European Union and China have described their relationship as strategic, although sometimes this seems no more than a hyperbolic way of saying each considers the other important. It is perhaps true that the relationship is more strategic for China than the EU. The promotion of multipolarity is one of the key foreign policy aims of the Chinese government, and the EU is a crucial element in the policy." 

The piece discusses UK, German and French positions within the EU trade and military policy regarding China. 

Hope you enjoy the articles.

Bush in Asia: Japan - America's Chief Ally

President Bush visited his good ally and friend Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi yesterday.  The BBC World News reports that Mr. Bush stressed:

Appreciation for Japan's role and support in Afghanistan and Iraq

Praise for Japan for helping spread "democracy and freedom" in Asia

American support for a permanent United Nations Security Council seat for the Japanese

the strength of the US-Japanese Strategic Alliance

President Bush also took the occasion to hint at his position with the Chinese as he gets ready to visit the country after visiting South Korea.  The Financial Times reports:

"Bush cited the communist country as an example of a society that has taken steps toward freedom 'but they have not yet completed the journey.'

He painted a different picture of Taiwan, which China claims. However, Bush reiterated the U.S. 'one-China' policy.

'Modern Taiwan is free and democratic and prosperous. By embracing freedom at all levels, Taiwan has delivered prosperity to its people and created a free and democratic Chinese society,' Bush said in prepared remarks for a speech in Kyoto."

President Bush, while affirming the "One-China" policy, also held out Taiwan as a model of what America would like to see the Chinese economy and political structure emulate.  On the issue of defending Taiwan, the President was adamant, and said he would do "whatever it takes" to defend the Chinese island.  The President did have harsher comments for Myanmar and North Korea.

"Bush had tough words for North Korea and Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, and said that unlike China they had 'not taken even the first steps toward freedom.'

He criticized 'widespread' abuses by the Burmese military, saying they include 'rape, torture, execution and forced relocation.'

Bush cited satellite pictures showing prison camps in North Korea 'the size of whole cities' and said the country’s pursuit of nuclear weapons threatened to destabilise the region."

It is important to note that President Bush is pursuing a policy of exposing the massive human rights violations of these rogue nations. 

China vs. Japan in the Air over East China Sea

Coming Anarchy has a post on over 30 incidents of Japanese fighters scrambling to turn away Chinese planes encroaching on Japanese airspace.  Dawn's Early Light believes these growing incidents have to do with the struggle for oil and engergy deposits in the East China Sea.

Two prior posts on this struggle can be found in "Containing China and Thwarting Terrorism" (May 10, 2005) and "China Rebuffs Japanese Foreign Minister" (October 18, 2005)

Both articles deal with the sensitive issue of energy needs and resources of China and their growing aggressiveness in attempting to claim and outright take these assets.

Germany and Japan in the News

Two interesting articles in the news today:  one story covering Japan and the other Germany.  Both are about the future direction of diplomacy in their respective countries. 

• Koizumi reshuffles his Cabinet
  Three contenders for prime minister handed key posts
  Japan Times Online, November 1, 2005
• Germany to retain SPD's foreign policies
  Financial Times, November 1, 2005

Japan

After PM Koizumi's September 11 sweeping re-election, he vowed to promote people in his cabinet that would further his reforms.  Who he has not elevated is almost as key as who he has to compete for position within the LDP for Prime Minister next year.

"Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reshuffled his Cabinet on Monday and gave key posts to three possible contenders to succeed him in the country's top job.

Koizumi's choices raise the curtain on the race of prime ministerial hopefuls that is expected to culminate next September when his term as Liberal Democratic Party president expires.

Koizumi has pledged to step down at that time, which means he also will leave the job of prime minister.

The three anointed candidates for Koizumi's job are deputy LDP Secretary General Shinzo Abe, who was appointed chief Cabinet secretary; Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Taro Aso, who received the foreign minister's portfolio; and Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki, who has been reappointed.

During a news conference later in the day, Koizumi said his new Cabinet was formed to push his reform agenda further, and hinted that he would not name anyone who does not follow his administrative reform initiatives as a possible successor.

'I don't think anyone who steps out of this reform line will become president (of the LDP),' he said, noting that he formed the new Cabinet to continue with his 'small government' reforms.

'Everyone who joined the Cabinet this time is eager not to stop the reforms,' the prime minister said."

Mr. Koizumi did not elevate a former cabinet member who was expected to repair ties with China if he had been elevated to a new post.

"Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, another politician considered a possible future prime minister, was not given a Cabinet post -- a development observers see as a setback for Fukuda.

He had been expected to try to improve strained diplomatic ties with China if he had been given a key Cabinet post.

In contrast, the appointment of Abe, a conservative with tough positions on North Korea and China, as chief Cabinet secretary could further harden Japan's diplomatic stances toward those countries.

Abe has repeatedly called for economic sanctions against North Korea over the unresolved issue of the abductions of Japanese nationals in the 1970s and 1980s, while praising Koizumi's contentious visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which has long been a thorny issue in Japan's relationship with China and South Korea.

Abe said he has visited Yasukuni Shrine based on his private beliefs, hinting he will keep visiting the Shinto shrine even in his new capacity."

Mr. Koizumi has reshaped his government in his own reformist image that is mixed with a strong sense of Japanese pride.  His picks clearly indicate that Mr. Koizumi views China and North Korea as more than just strategic competitors. 

Germany

Ms. Angela Merkel, without the clear mandate Mr. Koizumi enjoys, has a government with a great deal more constraints in its foreign policy options.  The Financial Times reports:

"Germany's grand coalition will retain the central pillars of foreign policy established by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrat-led government, party officials in Berlin have told the Financial Times.

The SPD and Christian Democratic Union disagree over Turkey's bid for European Union membership, but there will be few big changes in Germany's stance on key issues such as relations with the US or with other EU partners under the coalition.

This was another success for the SPD, analysts said, although the bargaining process was thrown into confusion yesterday by the resignation of Franz Müntefering, SPD chairman.

Despite losing power in September's election, the party has nevertheless managed to block chancellor-in-waiting Angela Merkel's agenda in several areas, including economic reform, and now foreign affairs."

The focus of German foreign policy, according to the article, is on keeping Shroeder's policies alive and not providing a change in tone.

"Both parties said the coalition agreement would emphasise the central importance of Germany's relations with both the US and Nato, and that while Ms Merkel might set new foreign policy accents at certain points, the stress in the next few years would be on continuity."

This may be a big setback for Ms. Merkel.  However, she is a bright and capable politician.  I suspect that even without control of the foreign ministry, she will have a positive impact on US-German relations.

Nevertheless, the contrast between Mr. Koizumi's position and Ms. Merkel's is considerable.  Elections do matter, and the long-term alliance structure between the US and Japan is stronger for the will of the Japanese people than the results in Germany have supported.

What is Japan's Asian Strategy? (Part II)

Part I of this series can be found here.  The intro is republished below.

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently completed his 5th visit to a Shinto war memorial shrine that contains the remains of 14 Class-A war criminals for WWII along with a memorial for over 2.5 million other Japanese that have died in the service of their country since 1869.  While Japanese opinion is roughly evenly split (according to this WaPo article) about the visits, Japan's neighbors are in complete agreement that the visits are inflammatory.  China, North Korea and South Korea have all condemned the visits.

So DEL asks, why did PM Koizumi visit the shrine?  (Part I)

And why did he choose now to do it? (Part II)

Bold Leader Builds Legacy with New Constitution

Mr. Koizumi cannot stand for re-election.  He just silenced the mavericks of the old guard in his own LDP party and destroyed his competition by calling for an election over Japan Post reforms and risking all to see his policy voted on last September 11.  With nothing to lose and a legacy to enshrine may explain the timing of Mr. Koizumi's shrine visit.

Note to Brazil and India: Blame France!

Trade negotiations are tough between nations.  World trade negotiations are extremely difficult, painful, and often very public.  The Doha round of trade talks began in Qatar in November 2001 and is set for another meeting in Hong Kong in December.  The trade talks have not produced substantial results in reducing barriers.  However, the US, in a Zurich meeting of five trade members -- the US, Australia, Brazil, the EU, and India -- proposed a massive cut in trade tariff ceilings.  The Economist reports:

"America can currently spend up to $19.1 billion on farm-production subsidies, which heavily distort trade. The EU can spend over $75 billion. Robert Portman, America's trade representative, offered to cut his country's limit by 60%, if the EU agreed to cut its permitted subsidies by 80%. Mr Portman also suggested limiting other subsidies, which do not distort trade as heavily, to 2.5% of the value of agricultural production. These two limits provide plenty of scope for creative accounting. Even as America lowers the ceiling on the most trade-distorting subsidies, some of this money will be reclassified as something else.

To the big agricultural exporters, such as Brazil, handouts to rich-world farmers, however galling, matter less than access to rich-world consumers. The trade powers appear to have settled on how to cut farm tariffs, if not by how much. Following a scheme outlined in July, tariffs will be divided into four “tiers”, according to their height. Those in the top tiers will be cut by more than those in the bottom. This week, Mr Portman proposed that rich countries should cut any tariff over 60% by as much as 90%, and any under 20% by more than half. No rich country should impose a tariff above 75%, he said."

This proposal woke up the trade negotiations and required a global response.  The US approach definitely supports a more liberal economic view of trade, and it is encouraging to see the US champion an approach that can help the developing world improve its economic lot while making a major American concession.

Background on Trade and the Developing World

It is common knowledge that the US, Japan and Europe have massive farm subsidies that are politically dear to the governments in power.  These subsidies greatly distort the ability of the developing nations to compete with their crops.  Additionally, it applies negative pressure on developing nation farmers as they cannot make their farms profitable, which, of course, does not benefit the developing nations.  The US, Japan and Europe then provide large subsidies, loans and grants to the developing world in attempting to move them out of their economically poor condition.  DEL understands this is a simplified argument and that it doesn't take into account other large inefficiencies in the developing world, like corruption and other policies and practices that keep the poorest people from rising out of their predicament.

Brazil and India wait on Europe

Brazil and India have much to gain by seeing the US proposal advanced.  This left first the potential for Japanese obstruction.  But given Koizumi's September electoral victory, which depended far more on urban support than rural support, it is likely that Japan can find some room for compromise.

The European Union responded with a proposal that is about half of what the US was proposing.  The Financial Times writes:

"The EU said its offer would cut European farm tariffs by an average of 46 per cent and reduce its highest tariffs by 60 per cent, against the 50 per cent cut tabled earlier this month.

However, the US said the average tariff cut would actually amount to 39 per cent and concluded: 'If the final Doha agreement on agriculture were to go no further than this, other areas would also be weak and the Doha round would not approach its potential for promoting development, opportunity and global economic growth.'

The US criticised in particular the EU's continued demand to maintain steeper tariffs on 8 per cent of its 'sensitive' imports. The US and others have called on the EU to reduce the list of sensitive products to only 1 per cent of the total and have also set 54 per cent as the minimum average tariff cut that the EU should offer."

While the EU proposal is not strong enough, the irony is that France's Chirac has vowed to veto even the EU proposal now on the table. FinFacts of Ireland reports:

"'It is totally out of the question for us to go a single step further,' Chirac told a news conference after the EU's informal summit at Hampton Court Palace, near London today. France would have a veto over any agreement, he added."

For background and analysis on Chirac and EU trade negotiator Mandelson's political maneuvers with each other, see this Financial Times piece.

So the EU response yesterday was to table the entire agriculture portion of the debate and move directly towards industry and services, an area of concern more to the developed world and less to the developing world. 

Blame France

The European Union, by French veto power, is the stumbling block in making major agriculture trade reform.  This apparent arrogance directly impacts Brazilian and Indian farmers and should be a good reminder of where French interests lie:  with Chirac's short-term best interests.  France's actions are like a spoiled child who has been indulged for far too long.  The US, Eastern European farming nations, Brazil and India, along with the African nations, should continue to apply pressure on France to reform its farm policies and rightfully link other issues of international relations to produce change.

What is Japan's Asian Strategy? (Part I)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently completed his 5th visit to a Shinto war memorial shrine that contains the remains of 14 Class-A war criminals for WWII along with a memorial for over 2.5 million other Japanese that have died in the service of their country since 1869.  While Japanese opinion is roughly evenly split (according to this WaPo article) about the visits, Japan's neighbors are in complete agreement that the visits are inflammatory.  China, North Korea and South Korea have all condemned the visits.

So DEL asks, why did PM Koizumi visit the shrine?  (Part I)

And why did he choose now to do it? (Part II)

The Balance of Power in East Asia

Japan, the key economic and military power in East Asia, now finds itself confronted by a China that for over a decade has experienced massive economic growth and double-digit defense growth (see DEL here).  Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently commented in China about their lack of transparency in their military buildup and questioned the purpose of developing their military capability (see DEL here and here).  China now has the world's third largest military budget after the US and Russia, according to Pentagon estimates. 

Japan has a population of 127 million that is set to decline within the next two years.  Given Japan's likely economic and potential military decline vis-a-vis China, why would they give the Chinese and democratic South Koreans a reason to stir popular unrest towards their neighbor?

Dawn's Early Light would argue that Prime Minister Koizumi's principal reason is to move Japan away from its pacifist history post World War II and to raise the discussion in Japan about its future security.  The visits have the effect of drawing negative Chinese and Korean reactions.  To build a stronger Japanese sense of self  defense is to pull the Japanese population together because of the external condemnation.

Only by raising Japanese domestic awareness to the potential growing threats in Asia can Japan move more aggressively to defend and promote its national interests.

Tomorrow: DEL looks at the timing of the visit and Japan's international position in Asia.

Update: For a detailed listing of the 14 Class-A war criminals mentioned above, Kushibo has a great summary. (November 25, 2005)

The US and Japan Solve Issue

The United States and Japan came to agreement on the repositioning of forces away from the island of Okinawa while preserving the overall US military capability and force structure.  The International Herald Tribune states:

"The United States and Japan agreed on a plan Wednesday to relocate a major American air base on the southern island of Okinawa, removing the biggest obstacle to talks on the redeployment of U.S. troops across the country.

According to the plan, the Futenma Marine Corps air base, located in the city of Ginowan, will move to an existing U.S. base, Camp Schwab, in a less populated area on the main island."

For background on why this has been a sensitive issue with the Japanese, one needs only to go back over the past decade and look at some horrific crimes by US servicemen against local Japanese girls and women.

Three US soldiers were convicted of raping a 12 year old girl in 1995.  Incidents of rape have surfaced in the news in 2002 and 2003 against the local Okinawans.  With up to 47,000 US soldiers in Japan and the majority on the island, the possibility for future incidents is high.

The Australian reports that the US military gave in to the Japanese in arriving at the compromise.  The US initially wanted to build the airstrip over a reclaimed coral reef, but the Japanese balked at the potential environmental impact.

"The Futenma decision appears to have been achieved by US concessions.

"The US side, taking into consideration the importance of the Japan-US alliance ... have accepted the most recent Japan Defence Agency proposal and plan for the relocation of the US Marine Corps at Futenma," lead American negotiator Richard Lawless told reporters yesterday....

About half the 50,000 US Forces in Japan personnel are deployed on Okinawa, a territory that was controlled by the US military for 27 years following the end of the Pacific war and remains a location of high strategic value because of its proximity to Taiwan and mainland China."

Why does this story interest Dawn's Early Light?  By attempting to remove a regular domestic political and social thorn in the side of US-Japanese relations, the two countries can remove a source of friction and gear up for future regional threats.  These threats are more likely to come from North Korea or China.  Additionally, it will make President Bush's trip to Japan easier on November 16. 

The US and Japan are serious about improved relations (as noted before here and here).  Given the rising importance of the Asia region, this compromise is good news for both sides.

Update: The Washington Post has a more detailed account of some of the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that is critical to DEL's point above about moving the relationship forward.

"'There was a sense of emergency that not reaching agreement on the issue, a central part of the U.S.-Japan relationship, would seriously damage relations,' Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told reporters.

Despite the accord, U.S. dismay at the pace of the talks was evident. The head of the U.S. delegation, Richard Lawless, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian & Pacific affairs, suggested Tuesday that the difficulties over such issues as Futenma had delayed a broader reshaping of the U.S.-Japan alliance. The United States has come to view the alliance as a cornerstone of regional security as China assumes a more assertive stance and North Korea is presumed to have become a nuclear-armed threat.

'We have to realize that we no longer have the luxury of interminable dialogue over parochial issues,' said Lawless, speaking at a Tokyo conference sponsored by the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

'If we are to bring the alliance to where it needs to be in the 21st century,' Lawless said, 'then we need to dramatically accelerate, across the board, to make up for the time lost to indecision, indifference and procrastination.'"

The US is serious about Asia and apparently Japan is on the road to be in agreement.  US and Japan need to be of one mind to tackle the issues of national security that will affect both nations directly as time moves on with the Global War on Terror.

Japan's Koizumi and DEL Agree about Chinese Motives

"The question then is "Why is China making poor long-term diplomatic choices?" The answer I believe is to keep domestic pressure away from the current government and focused elsewhere."   - DEL, May 24, 2005 written after PM. Koizumi's visit to a controversial Japanese shrine

"While dismissing [Koizumi's] shrine visit as no 'major issue' in the long run, he said: 'I understand because of the war 60 years ago' that the Chinese 'feel Japan is a threat. So, I understand that they want to contain Japan. I think to advance this perception of Japan as a rival and to create a sense of 'anti-Japan' in China would be advantageous to the Chinese leadership.'" - Robert Novak during October 20, 2005 interview with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi

DEL is glad to be in similar company of thought as the Prime Minister of Japan regarding Chinese motivations for being so vocally "anti-Japan".  What are the reasons behind China's need to have a nearby target of public ire, especially for a crime committed by a government long overthrown from power during a war over 60 years ago?

"It is the Economy Stupid"

The Asia Times Online, as it often does, properly frames the economic situation:

"Economic inequality and social protests in China have become a frequent topic in the Western press. The startling figure of 74,000 protests across China in 2004, up from 58,000 the previous year, has popped up in many newspapers, as has China's most recent Gini coefficient of 0.45, suggesting that economic inequality in China has in fact surpassed that of the US and UK with their allegedly cold-blooded "Anglo-Saxon" model of capitalism. (The Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality developed by the Italian statistician Corrado Gini, is a measure of income inequality ranging between 0 and 1, where 0 corresponds to a society where everyone has exactly the same income, and 1 corresponds to a society where one person has all the income and everyone else has none.)"

Chinese protests, which have been publicly numerated by the Chinese government (for all protests that involve more than 100 people), are a growing phenomenon throughout the country.  Most of these protests are not necessarily political in nature, but rather economic, such as land taken by the state from peasants and farmers due to poor wage and working conditions.  The Gini coefficient would suggest that income disparities could be the major cause.

However, the Asia Wall Street Journal (subscription required) argues that while income disparities have increased, that less Chinese live in poverty than before the major economic reforms:

"People's Daily reported that China's present index measure of 45 means that the country has 'reached the 'yellow' alarm level. Should there be no effective measures, it will reach the dangerous 'red' level in five years.

In 2003, when China began to implement its WTO reforms, its index was at 40. In 1992, when the reforms stemming from Deng Xiaoping's Southern voyage started, the index was at 37.4. And in 1980, a year after the reforms were first launched, it was at 33. This means that China's income gap has grown 36% in the last quarter century of economic reform.

But, hang on, in that time China has seen not just one of the fastest rates of economic growth in modern history, but also one of the most astonishing records of poverty reduction. By the World Bank's own estimates, the number of people living in poverty had been reduced to 29 million in 2001, from 80 million in 1993 and 250 million when the reform process got under way in 1979."

I believe this economic data further explains the reason for the growing protests.  Once a totalitarian state begins to privatize industry and allow individuals to compete in the workplace and in industry towards a capitalist structure, the state is no longer identified as the sole provider of one's complete needs.  This type of enlightenment, for either the left-behind state worker who has not the skills to compete in the city, or the successful Chinese entrepreneur, will question their prior reliance on the state for their personal welfare. 

Mikhail Gorbachev learned this principle through his glasnost policy of openness coupled with the perestroika policy of promoting market reforms.  The Chinese have implemented their own perestroika without the same level of openness.  While their economic reforms have largely been successful, the desire for personal freedoms will increase proportionately with the rising incomes and disparities thereby produced.

This takes us back to Japan.  When there is civil unrest at home, it is helpful to look abroad for a percieved greater threat.  The Chinese believe they have found it in the paper tiger of Japan's sins in the Pacific 60 years ago.  This may buy the Chinese government a short-term gain of redirecting the anger of the Chinese people; however, it is raising tensions among Asian neighbors and taking a once pacifist Japan into a period of a reassessment over their own security vis-a-vie China.  Add to the mix energy concerns that both nations claim and the paper tiger may chose to toughen up.

Prime Minister Koizumi is moving Japan in such a direction.  The Chinese government may wish to look elsewhere abroad to placate their citizens about their lack of freedom.  Or, better yet, reform.