By Dawn's Early Light

Syria Sets a Deadline for Pullout from Lebanon

This just came across the wire desk for the Washington Post.

"Syria plans to pull all its troops and intelligence agents from Lebanon by April 30, and a U.N. team could be dispatched to verify the withdrawal," a U.N. envoy said Sunday after meeting President Bashar Assad.

The full withdrawal will mark the end of Syria's 29-year military presence in Lebanon and will comply with the demands in a U.N. resolution, helping to relieve the international pressure on Damascus.

U.N. envoy Terje Roed-Larsen said Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa had informed him "all Syrian troops, military assets and the intelligence apparatus will have been withdrawn fully and completely" by April 30, at the latest.

Roed-Larsen said the Syrian commitment implies all its security forces will be withdrawn in line with the 1989 Taif agreement, which paved the way for the end of the Lebanese civil war, and U.N. resolution 1559 that was passed by the Security Council in September. The resolution called for Syria to withdraw its troops and stop interference in Lebanon."

Keep checking PubliusPundit for the latest news and analysis.  Syria has lowered its troops in Lebanon from 14,000 to 8,000 in the eastern portion of the country.  This seems to be good news indeed.   How long until real democracy emerges in Lebanon? Will this reduce the bombings in Christian areas of the country or intesify them?

Lebanon Democracy Protests Bearing Fruit

The massive second round of pro-democracy protesters of 800,000 to one million Christian, Sunnis and Druze in Lebanon are having an impact on Syria (for great coverage on the protests see here and here).

"Syria Begins Packing Up Beirut Intel Office" according to the AP.  Here is my favorite line:

"The agents, protected by Lebanese police, then drove off in the trucks. A short time later, a doorman hoisted two Lebanese flags at the entrance. "

Another good step forward on the "march of freedom".  President Bush met today with the Jordan's King Abdullah at the White House.  In a question and answer session with reporters, they spoke on Lebanon and Hezbollah, Israel and Palestine, and fighting terrorism.  Syria must be feeling increasingly isolated as James Lileks so humorously points out today (remember Assad was trained as an ophthalmologist):

"I tend to think that if Lebanon is freed, history might note a glancing relationship between the Cedar Revolution and the deposition of the occupying government’s fascist twin next door.

And what of Syria then? Assad has been taking pains to assure the world he is not Saddam – which might well mean he’s a dead man. Saddam would have purged things to his liking long ago. Assad, I suspect, may well suffer at the hands of the people in his government who are stronger and more serious. The sort of guys who flip between pictures of him and his dad and ask the old eye-doctor question: Better? Worse? Better? Worse? How about now?"

Now the Lebanese need to completely throw out the Syrians from their country and reform their government.  This is a good sign.

Is Syria Staging a Protest in Lebanon?

I was suspect of this article from the AP linked by Drudge earlier today saying 500,000 pro-Syrian protesters demonstrated in Beirut today.  I trolled around looking for a good blog article this morning giving an explanation.  This afternoon, I found a very good one from Little Red Blog.  He lists 4 different articles, with the last one as reported by UPI through the Washington Times that Syria may be busing in "demonstrators" from Syria!

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Here is what President Bush had to say today on Syria during a speech to the National Defense University:

"History is moving quickly, and leaders in the Middle East have important choices to make. The world community, including Russia and Germany and France and Saudi Arabia and the United States has presented the Syrian government with one of those choices -- to end its nearly 30-year occupation of Lebanon, or become even more isolated from the world. The Lebanese people have heard the speech by the Syrian president. They've seen these delaying tactics and half-measures before. The time has come for Syria to fully implement Security Council Resolution 1559. All Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel must withdraw before the Lebanese elections, for those elections to be free and fair.

The elections in Lebanon must be fully and carefully monitored by international observers. The Lebanese people have the right to determine their future, free from domination by a foreign power. The Lebanese people have the right to choose their own parliament this spring, free of intimidation. And that new government will have the help of the international community in building sound political, economic, and military institutions, so the great nation of Lebanon can move forward in security and freedom.

Today I have a message for the people of Lebanon: All the world is witnessing your great movement of conscience. Lebanon's future belongs in your hands, and by your courage, Lebanon's future will be in your hands. The American people are on your side. Millions across the earth are on your side. The momentum of freedom is on your side, and freedom will prevail in Lebanon.

America and other nations are also aware that the recent terrorist attack in Tel Aviv was conducted by a radical Palestinian group headquartered in Damascus. Syria, as well as Iran, has a long history of supporting terrorist groups determined to sow division and chaos in the Middle East, and there is every possibility they will try this strategy again. The time has come for Syria and Iran to stop using murder as a tool of policy, and to end all support for terrorism."

President Bush is pushing forward his agenda of spreading democracy around the world to friends and foe alike.  Peaceful protests, Orange Revolutions and Cypress Revolutions are the future for people fed up with dictators and autocrats.

Freedom is on the March

Publius Pundit is doing an exceptional job of following the events in Lebanon.  How can one not be encouraged by the resignation of the Syrian backed Lebanese government?

"Freedom is on the March" in the Middle East.  We are seeing a domino effect because of the US led invasion and liberation of Iraq.  To date, the benefits are:

• An emerging Iraqi democracy, free elections, and the building of a constitution
• Libya declaring its nuclear weapons program and dismantling it, providing the US and Britain with a detailed view of the international black market for nuclear weapons material from Pakistan, Iran and North Korea
• Palestinian elections and a move towards a negotiated peace with Israel
• The potential for elections in Egypt
• The rejection of Syrian involvement in Lebanon by the people and a desire for true democratic reform

I think 2005 and 2006 will be years of major progress towards democratic reform in the Middle East.  The countries of the Middle East do not operate in a vacuum, and people who are not free to say, think or practice their religion will become more vocal as they see freedom extended in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I am optimistic about the future of the Middle East. (I know, a risky opinion to voice).  I am an Idealist working within a Realism framework.  These are truly exciting times.

Iraqi Elections Making a Diffence in the Middle East

New Sisyphus caught an important opinion article in the Washington Post entitled "Beirut's Berlin Wall" from David Ignatius that I overlooked and has a valuable post regarding it.

Mr. Ignatius met with a Lebanese leader, the Druze Muslim patriarch, Walid Jumblatt.  Mr. Jumblatt is not pro-American and had been a supporter of Syrian occupation of Lebanon until about a year ago. 

"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

By changing the regime in Iraq, changing an ideology of hate and repression in Afghanistan, supporting a democratically elected leader in Palestine, the internal dialog of religious leaders and opinion makers in the Middle East is loosening the power of the old autocratic regimes and proving Mr. Bush correct, that "freedom is embedded in everybody's soul."

There is good reason to be hopeful for change from the grass roots, from the people living in oppression in the Middle East.  "Freedom is on the march," and the more we do to support it, the safer we will be.

The Red & White Revolution

Lebanese are taking to the streets to demand Syria withdraw its troops from Lebanon, who have been there since 1975.  Chants of "Syria Out" and "We don't want a parliament that acts as a doorkeeper for the Syrians" are reported by the AP (HT: Instapundit).  I still appreciate the "Remove Your Dogs from Beirut" chant myself.

They Lebanese protesters are wearing red and white scarves, the colors of the flag as they protest.  Can this not be a show of solidarity with the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians with their orange scarves in the streets of Kiev? 

Democracy is contagious.  The old paradigms will not work.  Once the yoke of oppression begins to lift in a region, it is impossible for neighbors not to want the same freedoms. 

The catalyst for this has to be the Iraqi elections and the potential Syrian overreach if they are, in fact, responsible (directly or indirectly) for the assassination of the former Prime Minister of Lebanon.  Even the Baathists of Iraq are reportedly at the bargaining table to move into the political process (see The Adventures of Chester and the Belmont Club with great takes). 

We should show solidarity and support to the Lebanese.  Let us hope and, better yet, apply maximum pressure for Syria to quit Lebanon.  The signs are here.  The people of the Middle East want liberty.

Lebanese Uniting Against Syrian Involvement

A good article in the WP concerning the fallout of the former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri's assassination by car bomb. 

"Syrian officials say Hariri's assassination has worked against their interests by uniting Lebanon's Christian, Druze and Sunni parties, some of which battled one another during years of sectarian strife. The opposition does not control a majority in Lebanon's parliament, but the fresh surge of anger over Syria's presence has strengthened its position heading into elections scheduled to be held as early as April."

Maybe his death will unite the country in ridding Lebanon of Syrian involvement and further isolate the Baathist regime.  No one knows if Syria was responsible, but this paragraph is troubling:

"As an increasingly important voice against Syrian influence, Hariri threatened Assad's control over Syria's ruling Baath Party, whose senior members have substantial economic and political interests in Lebanon. Many of the officials with the most to lose from a withdrawal belong to Syria's security and intelligence services, which have a history of acting without orders.  An attempt in the 1980s by Syrian intelligence agents to down an Israeli airliner in London was thwarted by Israeli intelligence. The plot was never revealed to Hafez Assad, the current president's father, who died in June 2000."

While we don't know for certain if Mr. Assad ordered the car bombing, or his security people did it on their own, or whether Al-Qaeda organized the murder, we do know what the Lebanese presume.  The Lebanese have good reason to fear Syrian involvement and hopefully their April elections will begin the process of getting Syria out of Lebanon.

Ironically, Syria may be helping bridge the divide between the US and France.  French President Jacque Chirac was a good friend of the slain former Prime Minister.  The US and France are both putting pressure on Syria to quit Lebanon militarily.   

Syria must be in a weak position if it is looking to build an alliance with Iran.  It is isolated on every border it has.

"Remove Your Dogs from Beirut"

I was traveling and unable to comment about the bombing and murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.  However, the reaction of the 200,000 plus mourners (this is out of a population of 3.8 million) who came out is very encouraging.  The last largest gathering in Lebanon was Pope John Paul II's 1997 visit, which drew a million people.  The group or government behind the bombing is not known.  There is good speculation that Syria may have played a role.  The Belmont Club has a good look at this controversy.

The funeral procession became a rally against Syrian involvement in Lebanon (Syria has about 16,000 soldiers in Lebanon).  Chants of "Remove your dogs from Beirut" were heard in the streets.   Syria must be feeling the heat, not only from the United States (US withdrew our ambassador and delivered a stern message) but from the disgrace in the Middle East of angry Lebanese mourners.

Not that Iran and Syria were not working together, but public comment on Iranian television only solidifies their axis arrangement.  Iraq strategically lies between these two countries.  The Bush administration's policy of expanding freedom and democracy seems even more so the correct and moral policy for the Middle East.

Afghanistan, Palestinians and Iraqi elections, coupled with Israeli-Palestinian rapprochement and now Lebanese anger at Syria, taken together, are important indicators of how freedom is spreading in the Middle East.  The Lebanese protesters are adding to the voices of democracy by protesting Syrian tyranny, and we should support them.

UPDATE: Fox News has more on the Iranian-Syrian axis.

UPDATE 2: Secretary Rice backs an international Probe of Hariri's murder:

"We do not know who is responsible for the bombing but there needs to be an international investigation of that. But the Syrians, given their position in Lebanon, given their interference in Lebanese affairs, given the fact that their forces are there, given the terrorists that operate in southern Lebanon with Syrian forces in close proximity to them, does put on the Syrians a special responsibility for the kind of destabilization that happened there," she said."