By Dawn's Early Light

NATO Joins Relief Effort

NATO, in a wise move today, announced from Brussels that they would send between 500 to 1,000 soldiers, including medical, engineering and troops, to Pakistan to help the victims of the Kashmir region who have suffered the loss of over 51,000 of their neighbors.

The IHT reports:

"NATO officials said up to 1,000 troops would go, led by engineers from Spain, Italy and Poland who will seek to clear roads blocked by the quake and subsequent mudslides so aid can reach stricken areas over land.

In addition, NATO will set up a field hospital, a mobile field headquarters to help coordinate operations with the UN, and send three Lithuanian water purification units.

NATO officials said the alliance would also fly four heavy-lift helicopters from Germany, which has already sent two big cargo choppers. Officials pointed out that individual allies have sent about 40 helicopters to Pakistan, with the United States taking a lead role.

De Hoop Scheffer also announced NATO was speeding up the airlift to Pakistan with 12 flights by giant C-17 cargo planes provided by Britain and the United States to carry aid from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in the next few days.

In Pakistan, the Turkish prime minister made a record pledge Friday to a faltering relief effort for the 3.3 million people who have been left homeless as survivors in distant mountains scrambled for aid before the harsh Himalayan winter closes in.

The prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, offered $150 million in cash and aid, making Turkey the biggest single donor nation. On Thursday, the UN warned that it had so far funded only about a quarter of its urgent appeal for aid.

Central to the NATO plan is the deployment of engineers and commanders from the alliance's elite NATO Response Force. NATO officials said it would mark the largest operation for the force, which has been used to help protect elections last year in Afghanistan, guard the Athens Olympics and coordinate an airlift of European aid to the United States after Hurricane Katrina.

NATO is running an airlift of aid to UN High Commissioner for Refugees in the next few days."

Turkey, by its generosity, is setting a good example to lead the Europeans in helping out, which should bode well for their EU ambitions that are being hotly debated in Europe.  The Financial Times is reporting the NATO decision came after Jan Egeland from the United Nations made a personal request for more assistance.  A long winter is approaching, and many more victims may die if more help into the remote areas is not forthcoming.

However, the same article points to a problem NATO has that demonstrates the poor socialist planning on defense spending of many European nations:

"However, Nato continues to experience problems in supplying helicopters to distribute aid to those most in need. Forty of the 100 Pakistani and foreign helicopters in the country are from Nato. Efforts to secure more have resulted only in commitments from Germany for four more."

If the governments that supply NATO cannot find working helicopters and the heavy-lift equipment to transport them, it doesn't speak well for nations that depend on European guarantees for their protection.

Update: IntelliBriefs questions the ability of the Pakistanis to use the relief wisely here.  While I agree that corruption in Pakistan is a major issue, worse than India's that DEL wrote about in the post prior, cancelling weapons systems is not the answer.  Nations need to provide for their defense to a reasonable level.  I would think that Pakistan moving towards democratic rule would reduce corruption and increase its economic ability to deal with this disaster. 

Natural Disaster Creates Opening

The horrific tradegy of the Kashmir earthquake that killed tens of thousands in Pakistan and in India as well has also created a diplomatic opportunity.  The Indian government today responded to Pakistani President Gen. Musharaff's call yesterday to open routes between Kashmiris living and struggling to cope on both sides of the infamous Line of Control (LoC). 

India agreed to allow a few routes to be opened and is providing cell phone access for both sides of the LoC.  According to the Deccan Herald:

"Earlier on Tuesday, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf called on India to allow earthquake-stricken Kashmiris cross the LoC. 'We will allow any amount of people coming across Line of Control,' he told a news conference in the destroyed PoK capital of Muzaffarabad.

'If India agrees, we would like to work out the formalities.... We would like to open many other points. We will allow every Kashmiri to come across the Line of Control and assist in the reconstruction effort,' he said."

Such steps by both governments to reduce tensions in the region will help the long-term security and economies of both nations.  Nevertheless, India needs to maintain the ability to keep Islamic terrorists from crossing over into India.  Confidence-building steps such as these, especially in a time of great need, hopefully will lead to further Indian-Pakistani engagement.

Update: Pakistan and India are in negotiations over opening 5 points across the LoC (see here).  October 22, 2005. 

Update 2: India announces the planned establishment of 3 relief camps on the Indian side of the LoC for Pakistani refuges (see here). October 22, 2005

Predator UAV Kills Terrorist

Score another one for the CIA and Predator UAV for killing an Al-Qaeda bomb maker in Pakistan.  ABC News has this exclusive:

"A senior al Qaeda operative was killed by a missile fired from a CIA Predator aircraft on the Pakistani side of the remote area near the Afghan border earlier this week, U.S. intelligence officials told ABC News.

Haitham al-Yemeni, a native of Yemen known for his bomb-making skills, had been tracked for some time in the hope that he would help lead the United States to al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, intelligence officials said. But with the recent capture in northwest Pakistan of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, thought to be al Qaeda's No. 3 man, officials worried al-Yemeni would soon go into hiding, and decided to take action."

Sounds like a good call.  Capture the No. 3 man and then kill the bomb maker.  Gary Schroen, former senior CIA agent and Author of "First In" said Sunday on Meet the Press he was hopeful that bin Laden would be found within 3 to 4 months:

"MR. SCHROEN:  I think with the capture of Al-Libbi recently--gives some hope that the Pakistanis will cooperate if we put enough pressure on them, and maybe we end up doing it unilaterally but I think we're going to get him within the next three to four months.

MR. RUSSERT:  Three to four months.

MR. SCHROEN:  Well, that's my hope."

I pray he is right.  However, this is good news on the Global War on Terror.  Hopefully the Pakistanis will continue to prove helpful.

While Away - The Economist on India, F-16s, and China

While traveling, I had a better opportunity to read through my most recent issue of the Economist.  Three good articles are worth noting:

1.   An interesting perspective on the failure of China's Taiwan policy in light of the anti-secession bill and how the timing of its passage likely happened:

"China may already be regretting its decision to adopt an anti-secession law aimed at keeping Taiwan in check. For Taiwan's independence-minded president, Chen Shui-bian, it has been a political boost, enabling him to rally hundreds of thousands of people last weekend in one of the island's biggest ever demonstrations. And it has introduced Taiwan—hitherto mainly a problem between China and America—as a tricky new factor in China's relations with the European Union.

Privately, Chinese officials say the bill, which was adopted by China's rubber-stamp parliament on March 14th, arose from the perception last year that Mr Chen was likely to gain control of the legislature in polls last December, dislodging the Kuomintang (KMT) and its pro-unification allies. Mr Chen, the theory went, would then step up his efforts to assert Taiwan's independence. Unexpectedly, the electorate disappointed Mr Chen. But the political momentum in China to adopt a bill threatening war against a secessionist Taiwan proved unstoppable, or so officials now say. They may have hoped that by keeping the law's wording in line with China's existing policy on Taiwan, repercussions abroad would be minimal and that Taiwan itself would sulkily brush it off.

And China probably did not anticipate the bill's impact in the European Union, where its passage is now being cited by some officials as grounds for delaying plans to lift a 16-year-old embargo on weapons sales to China. Shi Yinhong of Renmin University of China in Beijing says relations between China and the European Union, hitherto largely unfettered by the differences over security issues that mar ties between China and America, have suddenly become 'much more complicated'."

2.  "A lollipop for Pakistan; two for India" sums up most of what DEL covers on the F-16 sales to Pakistan here, here and here.  It quotes the US policy of helping "India become a major world power in the 21st century", and sums up all of the US carrots being offered as well.  It concludes with this line:

"Officials deny that the United States has taken a strategic decision to build up India as a counterweight to China. But between the idea of a prosperous, democratic and peaceful Asia, and the reality of American concerns, falls the shadow of Beijing."

3. The final article of note is "Today India, Tomorrow the World" on a wonderful Indian conglomerate success story.  Mr. Rutan Tata, who runs the 80-company conglomerate that bears his name, has an inspiring goal:

"Mr Tata will retire in just under three years, when he reaches 70. Before he goes he wants to launch a revolutionary '1 lakh car'—one that sells for 100,000 rupees ($2,000). Tata would make the body panels and sell kits to small firms that would create jobs assembling the cars in rural workshops. The idea is to have a 'people's car' made by the people. 'When I see four or five members of a family cling to one little scooter, I become determined to provide a low-cost family car between the scooter and normal models,' he says, calling it his parting shot. He may continue as an adviser on the project after he retires."

I hope you enjoy the above articles.  They are all in line with the future of the United States policy in Asia and its support of India over China. 

DEL Makes A Prediction

Dawn's Early Light discussed, during Secretary Rice's trip to Asia, the US's desire to sell 125 F-16s to India.  The French and Russians are competing for the same contract, and currently India does not fly US fighter aircraft.  Instead, the IAF flies the Mirage 2000 from the French and the SU-30, MiG-29 and MiG-21 from the Russians (as discussed in DEL here).  The contact would be extremely valuable to Lockheed Martin, maker of the F-16.  With sales in 2004 of $35.5 billion, Lockheed Martin is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, with subsidiary operations in a number of states, including Texas.  The F-16 is manufactured in Fort Worth, and continuing the line would mean the preservation of 5,000 jobs. (For a breakdown of Lockheed Martin worldwide operations, click here.)

When the US announced today that it was selling F-16s to Pakistan, my initial reaction was that the US must not have been able to secure the F-16 purchase from India, and therefore was less concerned about the the diplomatic fallout in India.  However, I now believe that Secretary Rice made an offer to India that is in its strategic and economic self interest.  My guess is that Secretary Rice offered the following:

• India should purchase the US F-16s (up to 125 aircraft)
• The US will approve a smaller sale of F-16s to Pakistan, with New Delhi's knowledge
• The US will offer future, more advanced military hardware including:
  • missile defense
  • nuclear reactor technology
  • high tech programs
  • other advanced US weapon systems
• The US will engage in a long-term strategic relationship with India to contain China and proactively work to propel India into being a major 21st century world power.

While the LAT (doesn't even mention the word "China"), NYT and WaPo (which argues the move will push India closer to China) play the US sale of fighter jets to Pakistan as angering New Delhi.  I imagine the US and India have cut a deal for a closer relationship to strengthen India in line with the Bush Administration goal of supporting democratic governments.  Why does DEL go out on such a limb with a counterview to the major US newspapers?  Read this article "US Wants to Help India be a Superpower" from the AFP via Sify News, owned by an Indian tech company:

"The United States unveiled plans Friday to help India become a "major world power in the 21st century" even as it announced moves to beef up the military of Pakistan.

Under the plans, Washington offered to step up a strategic dialogue with India to boost missile defense and other security initiatives as well as high-tech cooperation and expanded economic and energy cooperation.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has presented to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh the Bush administration's outline for a "decisively broader strategic relationship" between the world's oldest and largest democracies, a senior US official said."

The long-run goal of the United States is to diplomatically and militarily contain China by supporting the democratic governments in the region, thereby applying the soft power and hard power that the United States often is criticized for not demonstrating.  If the Bush Administration has New Delhi on board, this will complement the strengthening of the US-Japanese alliance (see DEL here and here).

it will be interesting to see if the US is also in favor of a permanent seat on the UN Security Council for the world's largest democracy as well.  I could be wrong, but I believe Secretary Rice is sharp and is thinking several steps ahead of the MSM in promoting the Bush Administration's democratic and national security goals.

Update: Robert Mayer of Publius Pundit emails several excellent follow up points:

Bill,

The MSM was certainly dumb on this. With Condi as our new Secretary of State, we've been diverting much more to regional powers of late. A major case thus far has been India.  India has done an amazing job with helping in the tsunami crisis, and currently they are handling the democratic crisis in Nepal. The new U.S. foreign policy seems to build strong democratic societies that can then exert influence on budding or established problem/communist states. With China enforcing its naval power in the straits and Indonesia, a powerful and populous ally against the communist mainland right next door is certainly in our strategic interest.

Largely, however, liberals are still so stuck on the "unilateral world policeman" slogan that they haven't noticed this deferment of power to regional players. And since we all know the MSM is largely liberal, well, there is certainly some cause and effect there.

Best,
Robert Mayer 

Update 2: The discussion continues below with several great comments from Nitin (The Acorn blog) and Dan (TDAXP ~~ the experience blog).  Hopefully Simon will chime in a really get the debate going (He is gone until Wednesday celebrating Easter). 

Please feel free to join in the discussion. 

US Agrees to Sell F-16s to Pakistan

Pakistan, after a 16-year wait to receive F-16s after the sale was blocked due to Pakistan's nuclear arms program, will now be allowed to place an order for Lockheed's single-pilot aircraft.  While the number of planes is not confirmed, some US reports peg the number at 24, the Pakistani Information Minister reportedly said:

"'We welcome this good gesture and it shows good friendship between Pakistan and the United States,' Information Minister Sheikh Rashid told AFP.

'They have offered us the latest version and it is unlimited numbers. It has pleased the people of Pakistan.'"

This is clearly a reward to Pakistan and to President Pervez Musharraf for their assistance to the United States in the Greater War on Terror.  It follows on the heels of Secretary Rice's visit to Islamabad on her 6th country Asian tour (see DEL here). 

While India is disappointed in the US-allowed sale of the F-16s, it is unlikely to tip the military balance between the two countries.  In addition, relations have been recently thawing in the past two years between New Delhi and the Islamabad capital.

The sale of the F-16s is part of the diplomatic offense Washington is pursuing in the second Bush Administration to increase its strategic partnerships in Asia and among Muslim countries.

Expect to see the Chinese complain about the sale with respect to the US and EU arms embargo and the "lack of fairness".  However, its criticism will be somewhat muted in that China supports Pakistan in its dispute with India.

Update: Jane's has a good list of countries that have the F-16 with what type of upgrades performed by which defense contractors in Excel format here.

Update 2: I thought the Chinese would be the first to make the argument linking US objection to the EU lifting the Chinese arms band.  Apparently the Los Angeles Times beat them to it. "The Bush administration, strongly opposed to European sales of sophisticated weapons to China, is giving the green light to expanded U.S. sales of jet fighters to two countries in China's backyard."

Update 3: More information coming from Voice of America supporting India's consideration of buying US F-16s and possibly F-18s in exchange for additional American assistance in energy and weapons. (March 28, 2005)