By Dawn's Early Light

Holding the Russian Energy Bear at Bay

The WSJ had an encouraging piece last week on Georgia's economic development.  President Mikhail Saakashvili has been taking on autocratic Russian President Vladimir Putin over Europe's growing energy dependence on Russian natural gas supplies through the Ukraine.  Russia's strategy, according to the WSJ, (subscription required) is:

"Gazprom -- the leading vehicle of Kremlin energy influence -- has accelerated a three-pronged strategy. First, it is campaigning to bottle up its control of Central Asian gas resources. Second, it is consolidating and expanding its hold on energy infrastructure among countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. Finally, it is trying to use a deepening war chest to acquire private and privatizing energy assets elsewhere in Europe.

Rising tensions with Moscow reached a crescendo last week when Mr. Putin, before meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Tomsk, Siberia, accused the West of "unfair practices" and agreed with Mr. Miller that it would redirect supplies elsewhere if its European expansion plans were blocked. A senior EU official says Mr. Putin's "pipeline rattling" is in direct response to EU pressure that Russia ratify an International Energy Charter requiring it to open pipeline access to competitors -- much as telecommunications companies share their bandwidth.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said at a Senate hearing recently that energy politics is "warping" international diplomacy, joined the battle in Ankara, Turkey, urging Turkey and Greece to reduce their dependence on Russia by favoring new pipeline plans that rely on Azerbaijan. Vice President Dick Cheney flies to Kazakhstan this week as part of a continued effort to get it and Turkmenistan to join pipeline plans that would reduce Russia's near-complete dominance of Central Asian resources."

Europe's growing dependence on Russian natural gas was brought home to the average European when Russia cut off supplies to Ukraine during the last winter season, demanding steep increases in payments.  According to the Washington Post:

"Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its natural gas supplies. Those supplies arrive via two major pipeline routes constructed in the 1980s over the objections of the Reagan administration. Today the United States realizes that Russian gas will remain vital to Europe, but it is pushing nations to diversify supplies so that Russia cannot exploit Europe's energy dependence for political purposes....

At the same time, however, Russia sells 80 percent of its natural gas to Europe and is worried about European plans to increase gas purchases from Algeria and Libya, as well as about liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which plans to triple its exports."

Mr. Saakashvili is working with Germany's Angela Merkel and other European countries, including Turkey, to bypass the old Soviet system.  In today's Wall Street Journal story "In Russia's Shadow, Georgia's Leader Remakes Nation":

"Mr. Saakashvili, who has strong backing from the U.S., is trying to transform Georgia's economy in a hurry. His aim is to end centuries of Russian domination and to forge new ties with the West. Corruption is down, and tax revenues have at least doubled since 2003, due in part to a new flat tax and improved collection, helping to pay for the government's many projects. The nation's gross domestic product rose 8.5% during the first quarter....

New pipelines that pass through Georgia are coming on line this year, giving Western nations access to oil and gas from the Caspian Sea area, one of the world's few significant new sources of energy outside of the Middle East and Russia. Georgia also is a key plank in the Bush administration's efforts to promote democratic governments in the former Soviet bloc."

The US embassy in Tbilisi supports a 650 person staff.  The United States is very committed to economic and energy reform in Georgia to counter Mr. Putin's impressive efforts in consolidating state control over Russia's energy and using it as a political weapon with Europe, the West and Asia.  To counter this, ahead of the upcoming G-8 summit, the US has been working to support alternative routes that bypass Russia and its reserves of natural gas.  Referring back to the Washington Post article:

"Bryza and more senior U.S. officials have been promoting pipeline routes that would bring gas from fields in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan near the Caspian Sea through Turkey to Europe. One such pipeline, from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, opens Oct. 1. U.S. officials have been saying that reserves in Azerbaijan alone could justify bigger pipelines even if territorial disputes over the Caspian Sea are not resolved. (Missing from the U.S. vision: supplies from Iran, whose natural gas reserves are second to only Russia's.)

Former Soviet Bloc countries are enthusiastic, especially since Russia has boosted prices on gas sold to Moldova and Belarus. Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili said during a recent visit here that he supports a pipeline that would bring gas from the Caspian Sea basin through Azerbaijan and Georgia, then under the Black Sea (to avoid Russia) to Romania and then north to Poland. Building that line would take at least five years."

Germany would be one of the largest beneficators of an alternative route for energy, and Ms. Merkel has met with the Georgian President to discuss these options.  It will be interesting to see if Turkey's desire to provide an alternative route for energy supplies could become an important area of leverage in their often troubled bid to become a member of the European Union.

Regardless, Georgia represents an improved US and European ally in trying to roll back Russian advances in energy control.

Ukraine's "Moral Obligation"

For any democratic society to be just and fair, its judicial arm must be able to deal with state corruption.  Under the old leadership of Kuchma, prior to the Orange Revolution, this was not the case in Ukraine.

The Washington Post covers an important story in the Ukraine.  In September 2000, investigative reporter Heorhiy Gongadze was brutally murdered by what appears to be Interior Ministry henchmen.   Former President Leonid Kuchma was implicated along with other senior government officials when secretly recorded tapes were released regarding the killing.

Now, Yuri Kravchenko, Ukraine's former Interior Minister was found dead today prior to meeting with investigators looking into the case now that Kuchma is out of office and on vacation in the Chech Republic.  Whether he was killed or committed suicide is still being determined. 

President Victor Yushchenko has made the case a "moral obligation" of Ukraine to solve.  The popular Prime Minister of Ukraine, Ms. Julia Tymoshenko

"suggested Friday that Kravchenko, who was fired by Kuchma in 2001, may not have killed himself and that his death might be an attempt to prevent others from being implicated in the conspiracy.

'If he really committed this act himself, it may indicate that he was afraid of taking responsibility for developments surrounding Gongadze’s murder,' Tymoshenko said, according to the Interfax news agency. 'If it was not a suicide, then it was an attempt to conceal the truth about the murder.'"

PM Tymoshenko's direct involvement in moving the case forward demonstrates Ukraine's commitment for building a society based on the rule of law.  The case is intriguing and President Yushchenko's desire to make it an administration priority is a good indicator to the West and more importantly to Russia and Ukraine's citizens that true reform is coming to Kiev and that the old Soviet system is a dying breed in Europe.

For More on the history of this case (and an photo of Julia or Yulia Tymoshenko) see Publius Pundit here and here.  Also, Le Sabot Post-Moderne has many very good links on Ukraine and the Gogadze murder here.

President Bush at NATO HQ

Just a few observations from President Bush's speech in Brussels today after a NATO meeting. (The text of the speech is here, and a useful FAQ on NATO is here).  Secretary General De Hoop Scheffer gave a warm introduction.  He used the word "strong" 11 times in his introduction of the President.  Given what I read earlier from columnist Mark Steyn, NATO may be in long-term trouble.  I felt that Sec. Scheffer was trying to convince his audience that it is "strong", rather than stating what NATO truly is and will be.

First, let me start with interesting observations that President Bush made (President's comments in blue):

• of NATO's 26 members (Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States), 9 of them are of the former Cold War era "Warsaw Pact", all of which remember "a society that wasn't free".
• Pres. Bush alludes to certain members who take NATO for granted by saying, "One thing is for certain.  The newly admitted countries don't take NATO for granted. As a matter of fact, they add a vitality to the discussions that I find refreshing and hopeful."
• Pres. Bush sat next to invited guest and non-NATO member Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko saying, Yushchenko "...had just led a revolution, a peaceful revolution, based upon the same values that we hold dear.  And it was a remarkable moment, I thought."
• Pres. Bush extended the circle of NATO membership to President Yushchenko if Ukraine follows through on democratic reform. "We welcomed President Yushchenko, and reminded him that NATO is a performance-based organization, and that the door is open, but it's up to President Yushchenko and his government and the people of Ukraine to adopt the institutions of a democratic state."
• President Bush spoke with PM Blair and President Chirac about the EU plan to sell advanced military hardware to China and the US opposition, as outlined by Sec. Rice to the sale.  It sounds like the governments are still debating what ultimately will be sold and how much "a transfer of weapons would be a transfer of technology to China, which would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan."
• He also thanked each member nation that had sacrificed one of their own in combat.
• With respect to Iraq and the need to move forward, he is straightforward: "The major issue that irritated a lot of Europeans was Iraq.  I understand that. I can figure it out.  And the key now is to put that behind us and to focus on helping the new democracy succeed.  It's in our interests. It's in your country's interests.  It's in my country's interests that democracy take hold in the greater Middle East."
• To a reporter, Mr. Bush smartly replied, while advancing his spreading democracy idea: "Millions of people of voted in Afghanistan. I doubt many of you here were writing articles about, 'Oh, gosh, the elections in Afghanistan are going to be incredibly successful.' It didn't seem like it was possible, did it? But, yet, there's something in everybody's soul, in my judgment, that desires to be free.  And the people of Afghanistan showed that by the millions -- not by the handfuls, but by the millions -- when given a chance to vote. Same in Iraq.  And there was an election in Ukraine -- two elections in Ukraine.  And then there was the election in the Palestinian Territory. Freedom is on the march, is the way I like to put it. And the world is better off for it.  And I look forward to continue to articulate how we can work together to keep freedom on the march."

NATO needs to become more political if it is to survive.  The European nations of the EU spend only 39% as much on defense as the US does (a subject of a future post I am working on).  The future of NATO does not lie in European contributions but rather expanding the membership to include formerly communist regimes, like the Ukraine, that can strengthen their new democracies by having a seat at the table of European security.  By this means, Russia loses more power to its "near-abroad" of former Soviet states and hopefully will better embrace democratic reform as well.

Following the Orange Revolution

Le Sabot Post-Moderne has a good follow up on the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine, with a link to 6 English articles.

I find this link from Le Sabot most fascinating, Profound Generational Shift Follows Ukraine's Orange Revolution.  To summarize a few of its key points:

• The new cabinet is made up of individuals not linked to Soviet rule, who are pro-Western
• Two thirds of the Orange Revolution protesters were the younger generation
• A comparison of the revolutions in Serbia, Georgia and the Ukraine
• The new cabinet is going after "rooting out corruption"

There is much to be hopeful for in the Ukraine.  Click on both links above and cheer on the Ukrainians.

The Inside Scoop

RealClearPolitics has an excellent link to a solid New York Times piece on how Ukraine successfully avoided bloodshed and overturned a corrupt election.  Generals within the Ukrainian security service (SBU, the successor to the former KGB) overtly and covertly thwarted the government's attempts to certify a fraudulent election. 

Generals in the SBU:

1. Distanced themselves from the government, stating that they did not support their position.
2. Sent security teams of specialists to protect the Orange revolution leader, Mr. Yushchenko, and give guidance to the protesters.
3. Released "illegal" taped conversations of the government's supported party discussing rigging the election when returns were not going their way.
4. When the government deployed troops to try to break up the protesters, the SBU sent surveillance teams to monitor the government troops and warn them they would be tried for "illegal" acts against the people, and
5. Sent armed security agents to defend the people.

It takes courageous individuals to build a democracy, especially out of the rubble of a former totalitarian state.  General Smeshko, head of the SBU, is quoted as saying to heads of Ukrainian security forces, "Today we can save our faces or our epaulets, or we can try to save our country".

The Times article gives a good inside account of people working on the ground to stop a bloody retribution against the people.

Among the protesters' tents, an S.B.U. colonel who had spent the week as a liaison to the demonstration organizers alerted the organizers that troops were on their way.

His next mission was to meet the troops as they drew near, he said, to warn their officers that a crackdown without written orders was illegal. He said he also planned to warn them that the S.B.U. had surveillance units watching Kiev, and all actions would be videotaped for use as evidence later.

The fear, he said, was intense. Some intelligence officers thought of China's crushing of the pro-democracy protesters in 1989 in Beijing.  Others thought of the Romanian revolution in 1989 when, after troops fired on demonstrators, the people fought back, eventually capturing and killing President Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife.

Democracy can be fragile.  Ukrainians should be proud that the integrity of its citizenry is matched by the humanity and wisdom of those who control the powers of the state.

I hope and pray, for their sake and ours, that the Iraqis show the same focus and strength of character their neighbors to the north have.

Ukraine Election Certified - US Doesn't Accept Results

The Ukrainian government has moved events along by certifying a faulting election.  Foreign reaction has been swift condeming it.  The US will not recognize the results.  Keep watching.

Historical Comparisons

Anne Applebaum (I have always enjoyed her columns and historical analysis) writes a must read in today's Washington Post comparing the Ukrainian election with 1946 Poland elections that solidified Soviet domination after a fraudulent election.  Her key graph:

To the West, the democracies of Western and Central Europe will remain more or less stable members of the European Union and NATO. To the east, Russia will control the "managed democracies" of the former U.S.S.R., keeping the media muzzled, elections massaged and the economies in thrall to a handful of mostly Russian billionaires. Using primarily economic means -- control over oil pipelines, corrupt investment funds, shady companies -- the Russians may even, like their Soviet predecessors, begin to work at undermining Western stability.

I am not sure that I see Russia having a growing ability to thwart the West, but I think her concept of "Managed Democracies" is succinct.  Allowing Russia to continue to increase its regional hegemon status will only continue to strangle Western investment and ultimately economic and political change for its former states.

Will there be a possibility of new (fair) elections?  Maybe I am being too naive.  The world is watching and the Ukrainians are in the streets.  Let's pray for their sake and ours that freedom rings from Kiev.

Russia's Involvment

Instapundit has a good link to first hand reports back from Ukraine from election monitor and former Congressman Bob Schaffer.  If his reports are correct, Russian Special Forces have flown into the country, dressed as Ukrainian forces, and are "defending" the presidential palace. 

While Russia has an impressive history of involving itself in its neighbor's affairs, this is not a good sign.  The strong US response that "the United States stands with the Ukrainian people in this difficult time" will hopefully be followed up with quiet diplomacy stressing to Russia and to Ukraine, that fair elections are to be expected in the former Soviet Union.

May justice prevail, and democracy's voice be heard.

The US Steps In

Outgoing President Loenid Kuchma has said negotations will take place among the parties concerning the election outcome.  I was glad to see this AP report:

"The startling development in the three-day standoff came as the Bush administration urged the Ukrainian government not to certify results of Sunday's runoff election results that showed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, backed by Kuchma, defeating the Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko.

"The United States is deeply concerned by extensive and credible indications of fraud committed in the Ukrainian presidential election," White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said.

The United States stepped in the promote democracy which will protect our credibility and hopefully build goodwill among the Ukrainians looking for fairness and accountability in electing their own government.  Let us hope that the current government has gotten the message.

Voter Fraud

The Economist (subscription required) describes dubious elections best:

"Leading the protest was Ukraine's pro-western opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, for whom exit polls had predicted a comfortable win. Instead, the country's electoral commission announced that the winner, by a margin of three percentage points, was Viktor Yanukovich, currently Ukraine's prime minister, who was backed by both the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, and Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin. America, the European Union and other international observers have denounced the election as a fraud, while an official Russian observer said it was “legitimate”.

Over 200,000 people have taken to the streets to protest, what they believe to be a staged election for Yanukovich on behalf of the ruling government.  Viktor Yushchenko, the Ukrainian opposition candidate took a symbolic "oath of office" after not having a quorum in parliament to pass a no confidence vote against the Central Election Commission. 

The events in Ukraine demonstrate again the importance of fair elections, and the belief in the former Soviet Union that personal protest can bring change.  I have not been following the election crisis close enough to know which way I think this will all turn out, but the Ukrainian Government surely has a legitimacy issue on its hand. 

Democracy must be encouraged by the US.  If we fail to defend free and fair elections our credibility in Iraq will suffer as well.  Watch for the US response, and if the Ukrainians increase their protest in size and voice.