By Dawn's Early Light

US and Vietnam and Oil

I, unfortunately, let the visit of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Phan Van Khai, with President Bush go by uncommented upon.  Nevertheless, the visit was extremely important and is a good indicator of US policy in Asia.  The relationship has implications with US-Sino relations as well, especially because of oil, which is only highlighted by China's desire to invest heavily into Mobil. 

Vietnam is in a strategic geographic position with important oil shipping lanes nearby.  Rather than attempting to, as they say, reinvent the wheel, I would like to refer you to Tom Collins' excellent work (he has a history inside the oil industry) and unique perspective on the visit over at QuillNews.

"But the energy realities of the region remain.  Oil and energy security will be on the agenda when Khai visits with President Bush today. However, now instead of competing over oil discoveries and drilling rights nearby, China and its East Asian neighbors are forced to rely on oil and gas shipped from the Middle East. Pressure on security of the sea lanes remains paramount to every state in the region where no one trusts anybody else. China’s military build up, partly in its blue water navy to project military power at sea, continues and is causing nerves to twitch in the region.  Now, instead of working to deal with the riches of oil at home, Vietnam and the US find themselves again talking about oil – this time keeping sea lanes for oil transportation open. 

When Khai appears in the White House to discuss mutual interests, the US and Vietnam can discuss the US desire that Vietnam take a more active role in the region’s defenses, and that the Vietnamese cooperate with their regional neighbors – notably Japan and Australia – to assure that all shipping in the region remains secure from pirates, terrorists or bully states. (Fourth Rail, WRMead in LAT)  Despite the wrongs, the lingering memories (LGF) and open wounds, the chapters of history that the US and Vietnam wrote together in war are largely completed.  The caravan of history has moved on; and oil, as always, must flow. (QN)"

The US is forging new and innovative alliances in Asia while strengthening core relationships such as with Japan and Australia.  This is all good news for the long-term security and economic interests of both of our nations.

US Foreign Policy Successes

I have posted a good deal on Dawn's Early Light regarding the US goal of containing China and building strong relationships with Asian countries.  Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick recently returned from a 6-nation tour of Asia.  Evelyn Goh of the Asia Times has this fascinating article that praises Mr. Zoellick's efforts.

"For those who have been wondering what the second George W. Bush administration has in store for Southeast Asia, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick's recent eight-day visit to the region was encouraging. Above all, it was a significant display of the kind of diplomacy that too many have ceased to expect from the United States after Bush's first term. Following Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visits to Northeast and South Asia in March, the deputy secretary's visit reassured Southeast Asia that it remains on Washington's radar screen. Symbolically, Zoellick observed the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II in the Asian theater, at Corrigedor in the Philippines.

In terms of style, Zoellick was impressive. At various stops, he stated his interest in 'consulting with our [Southeast Asian] partners, sharing some ideas and listening to their thoughts about the direction for the next four years'. The emphasis on consultation and listening regarding issues of common concern was accompanied by material aid in the form of a substantial post-tsunami reconstruction package for Indonesia and promises of help with economic liberalization in Vietnam. When he publicly discussed thorny issues, such as Myanmar's upcoming chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) [See DEL prior comments here and here] and religious freedom in Vietnam, Zoellick was diplomatic: he appeared firm but not overbearing or hectoring. More important, in terms of substance, the deputy secretary made all the right noises about issues most important to the region while taking a broader and more consultative approach to the key issue for the US - terrorism."

The article requires little commentary yet I would like to highlight several key goals attained by the US with various countries in the region.  Mr. Zoellick is an impressive representative of US foreign policy because of his background.

"The emphasis on economic issues during Zoellick's trip was particularly appreciated in a region that has labored under the US foreign-policy banner of the "second front" in the war against terrorism since 2002. As a former US trade representative (2001-2005) responsible for negotiating a wide range of trade agreements, including the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement and the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement, Zoellick is familiar with the economic and developmental imperative in Southeast Asia."

Here are the highlights by country, according to Ms. Goh, of his recent trip:

Singapore

• Mr. Zoellick spoke of working out a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries and contrasted the opportunity against Chinese efforts: "he was also careful to explain that US FTAs take a longer time to negotiate as they are more comprehensive than agreements offered by other countries such as China."
• The US has invited the Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to Washington DC within the next two months.  This invitation was also extended to Vietnamese Prime Minister Phan Van Khai and Indonesia's leader, Yudhoyono (See Marvin's piece here)

Malaysia

• Mr. Zoellick made efforts to establishing an FTA.
• He expanded cultural ties to Malaysia in a sensitive way: "He spent time in Malaysia talking to Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi about Islam hadhari, or 'civilizational Islam', and consulting with scholars and members of religious parties and human-rights groups, suggesting that the country held lessons for Iraq and Palestine."
• Not reported in the article, but nevertheless extremely important, was the agreement to allow the US navy to patrol the oil sensitive Malacca Strait.

Indonesia

• Mr. Zoellick attempted to build upon America's goodwill generated after the devastating December 2004 Tsunami.  America's efforts stand in contrast to China's as noted: "He duly traveled to Aceh, where he signed an agreement to build a US$245 million road along the devastated province's western coast. The deputy secretary also pledged a broader economic development assistance package for Indonesia, committing $73.7 million over the next five years. This offer by the US comes on the heels of China's recent pledge of $5 million in assistance and $300 million in low-interest loans for reconstruction in Indonesia's disaster zones."
• He pressed for Indonesia to revive its lead role in ASEAN, especially given the possibility that Myanmar (formerly Burma) is set to take the rotating lead role, which is an issue to the US given their horrific human rights abuses.  As Ms. Goh states: "This is because of the confluence of three factors conducive to American interests: the desire to support democratically elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono; the recognized importance of Indonesia as the world's largest, and relatively moderate, Muslim country; and Jakarta's support for an open, inclusive Asian regionalism that will not exclude the US."
• The door for a possible resumption of US-Indonesian military ties were likely discussed though no agreements were announced.

Thailand

• Mr. Zoellick lent credibility and stature to Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Sihinawatra's efforts to play a positive mediator role in the US-ASEAN concerns regarding Myanmar.
• Mr. Zoellick made efforts to establishing an FTA.

The United States, through its use of deft soft-power politics, a readily world-apparent view of its hard power on display internationally, and the able efforts of Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, has made good progress in expanding on relations in an extremely important region.  Ms. Goh's final comments explain the opportunities and success the US has in Southeast Asia and what it translates to regarding China.

"By demonstrating that Washington recognizes the economic imperative of the region, that it would rather peacefully compete with Chinese economic influence in Southeast Asia, and that it can address more sensitively top US strategic priorities that are shared by these nations but subject to domestic constraints and sensitivities, Zoellick has performed a significant service in boosting US relations with the region.

Certainly, Southeast Asia will keep a sharp eye out for concrete results, especially regarding the progress of FTA negotiations with Thailand and Malaysia and the resumption of military ties between the US and Indonesia. For now, however, if the renewed diplomacy demonstrated by Zoellick reflects the Bush administration's attitude toward the region, we may be looking forward to fruitful US-ASEAN relations for the next four years."

While the Mainstream Media focuses on the Koran and the NYT editorializes about the failed US policy towards China, real diplomacy is producing results and laying the important groundwork for the US to retain its central role in promoting personal and economic freedoms in an important part of the world.

Australia to give Vietnam Candy for Ice Cream

Vietnam's Prime Minister, Phan Van Khai, was received in Canberra, Australia today by Prime Minister John Howard.  Each PM has a very clear goal.  For the Vietnamese, it is economic.  For the Australians, it is political.  While former enemies, their current objectives have created an interesting possibility for a new relationship.

Australia wants membership to ASEAN, the Association of South-East Asian Nations, but does not want to be bound by their regional "Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia" (Feb. 24, 1976), which states nations cannot interfere with one another.  The nations that make up ASEAN are:

• Myanmar (former Burma)
• Laos
• Thailand
• Cambodia
• Vietnam
• Philippines
• Malaysia
• Brunei
• Singapore
• Indonesia
  • Papua New Guinea has observer status

ASEAN would benefit substantially from Australian membership.  Vietnam, on the other hand, wants Australian support to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in exchange for their public support.  As reported in the Sydney Morning Herald:

"A former enemy, the communist government of Vietnam, has pledged to press for Australia to be admitted to the East Asia summit.

Vietnam's Prime Minister, Phan Van Khai, gave the undertaking yesterday after meeting the Prime Minister, John Howard, at Parliament House in Canberra.

Mr Khai said Australia should not be forced to sign the regional non-intervention treaty in order to be invited. The summit is intended to link the Association of South-East Asian Nations with other countries - including China, Korea, Japan and India. Mr Howard has criticised the treaty and has said Australia will not sign it.

This stance is being reviewed, but sensitive negotiations lie ahead, and Vietnam's backing for Australia to have a place at the summit is expected to be helpful.

Mr Howard yesterday gave conditional support to Vietnam's attempt to conclude a 10-year campaign for entry into the World Trade Organisation.

Before the talks a Vietnamese official linked the two issues. "It can be like kids - you give me some ice-cream and I'll give you some candy," the official said."

Deputy Sec. of State Robert Zoellick has the Thais on board for helping ASEAN attempt to keep its respectability.  That, no doubt, has to be helpful to the Australians. The Financial Times reports:

"Thailand yesterday suggested that military-ruled Burma could skip its turn to take the alphabetically rotating chairmanship of the Association of South East Asian Nations, amid concerns that Rangoon's leadership could diminish the stature of the bloc.

"As Asean grapples to prevent its image being tainted by Burma's generals, Kantathi Suphamongkhon, the Thai foreign minister, said 'one of the possibilities' was for Rangoon to back away from the group's leadership.

"Mr Kantathi's comments came after Robert Zoellick, US deputy secretary of state, said Washington would face 'severe limitations' on its engagement with a group led by the Rangoon junta, which severely represses its population and keeps Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest."

Kudos to the United States for working with its friends and allies to deter repressive regimes with poor human rights records.  The US and Australia are making substantial overtures to Vietnam, their former enemy.  It is an impressive strategic move, and I wish both nations success in their diplomatic efforts.

A Post Eaten But Content Worth Readin'

I wrote a long post and analysis tonight on this AFP (Agence Francaise de Presse) article "US eyes Indonesia, Vietnam as potential strategic allies in Southeast Asia".  It was unfortunately eaten by my blog interface TypePad. 

Here is a quick summary:

1. Deputy Sec. of State Robert Zoellick is traveling to Southeast Asia on an important trip.  Here is the State Departments press release: "Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick will travel to Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines May 2-11.  He will be seeking the perspectives of these countries on a variety of economic, political, and security issues, as well as presenting ideas on how we might strengthen ties in President Bush’s second term."
2. The US is moving forward its economic ties by offering Vietnam WTO support in exchange for advancing military coordination.  The purpose of this is the containment of China, much like the US is doing with India, Japan and Australia.  According to AFP, "Strong US-Vietnam relations will be an effective bulwark against any Chinese regional military expansion while Indonesia is crucial in the US 'war on terror,' of which predominantly-Muslim Southeast Asia is seen as a key front, analysts say."
3. US goodwill in Indonesia is on the rise after recent lows because of the US response to the tsunami disaster. 

   Speaking of Deputy Secretary of State Zoellick, AFP writes, "Washington also wishes to help Indonesia regain its leadership role in ASEAN, the third largest market for US exports and a key American investment destination, he said."

   The article continues, "Until recently, Indonesia, the largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) state and the world's most populous Muslim nation, had taken a backseat in the grouping since being gripped by a 1997-1998 financial crisis that sparked leadership changes and democratic reforms.

   "The US initiatives 'relate to the larger point about starting to lay the foundation for the second term (of the Bush administration) on relations with ASEAN,' Zoellick said. "

I regret losing my original post, but the content of the article is well worth reading.  The US is expanding on its China containment policy.