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June 21, 2005



Five years ago, I predicted that the EU would last for maybe half a decade before it started to come apart.

Every country has its own culture, public and political dispositions and an entity that unites several nations under one central government cannot possibly exist for any length of time without attempting to pass legislation offending the sensibilities of one or more members on more than one occasion.

I think Tony Blair could fix the EU and prove me wrong if he has the cooperation of the other member nations, but somehow I don't see it if only because his policies would be a little farther to the right than some of the other Euro countries would go.

However, going from the other hand back to the one hand, there could be some influential support from Germany, as we both agree, if they have Markel in the mix.

Some of my favorite local watering holes get a lot of European tourist traffic and I meet and chat with Germans, Viennese, Dutch, Brits and Italians, among others. Most of them speak of France with contempt and don't give them a whole lot of credibility as a fellow EU member, and meeting these voters from EU countries I don't get the impression that what Chirac thinks is much of a priority these days.
It's also possible that the EU constitution being voted out from under him by his own people may be indicative that many of the voters who previously supported him have drifted to other camps{or is that just wishful thinking? :-)}.

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