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June 16, 2005



I've always wondered about Communist China's fixation with Taiwan. Both countries started at the same time. The world recognises North & South Korea. What is so important about Taiwan, other than the size of China?

Is Taiwan the start of the "Zipper" that would see China disintegrate if China agreed that Taiwan should excercise it's right to be independent? Is so, what other regions of China are watching the Taiwan experiment?

Earlier, I thought the exercise of democracy by Taiwan was what bothered the Chinese leadership. I don't think that way anymore.
I think it is reasonable to expect that any middle class would want democracy, as they now have something to lose. Once China gets a middle class, they will need to change to a democracy. If the middle class does not get democracy, we will have a big "Argentina", complete with massive flight of capital from China.

China would implode.

Getting back to Taiwan, if Taiwan goes, does Chinese regionalism break up China? Is that a bad thing? Does US foreign policy really have any levers in this equation? Trade with China will generate a middle class. A middle class will clamor for democracy as they will have something to say. If democracy comes to China, their relationship with Taiwan will likely be similar to Slovakia and the Czech Republic. If democracy is stifled, man the battlements.

In my mind, Kissinger's points reflect a reliance on a stable view of the China. I feel in real-life, the view of China will change internally and internationally. I suspect the real US foreign policy position is to illuminate the tipping point when China's economic development will push the country past communist-capitalism and into democratization. The change in the past 60 years in China has been heavily skewed to the past 10 years. More will likely happen in the next 7 than the past 10. I suspect the US foreign policy needs to be flexible, not entrenched.

I suspect Kissinger's view was enticed to address "building internal pressures" within China resulting from their capitalistic/entrepreneurial success. I think China is about to undergo a boom-bust cycle that will tax the control the government has over the people.

Michael Turton

You might do well to see who is paying Kissinger to make those remarks. He works for several foundations, and money is regularly funneled into such foundations by individuals and corporations from overseas....

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