What is Japan's Asian Strategy? (Part I)

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently completed his 5th visit to a Shinto war memorial shrine that contains the remains of 14 Class-A war criminals for WWII along with a memorial for over 2.5 million other Japanese that have died in the service of their country since 1869.  While Japanese opinion is roughly evenly split (according to this WaPo article) about the visits, Japan's neighbors are in complete agreement that the visits are inflammatory.  China, North Korea and South Korea have all condemned the visits.

So DEL asks, why did PM Koizumi visit the shrine?  (Part I)

And why did he choose now to do it? (Part II)

The Balance of Power in East Asia

Japan, the key economic and military power in East Asia, now finds itself confronted by a China that for over a decade has experienced massive economic growth and double-digit defense growth (see DEL here).  Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently commented in China about their lack of transparency in their military buildup and questioned the purpose of developing their military capability (see DEL here and here).  China now has the world's third largest military budget after the US and Russia, according to Pentagon estimates. 

Japan has a population of 127 million that is set to decline within the next two years.  Given Japan's likely economic and potential military decline vis-a-vis China, why would they give the Chinese and democratic South Koreans a reason to stir popular unrest towards their neighbor?

Dawn's Early Light would argue that Prime Minister Koizumi's principal reason is to move Japan away from its pacifist history post World War II and to raise the discussion in Japan about its future security.  The visits have the effect of drawing negative Chinese and Korean reactions.  To build a stronger Japanese sense of self  defense is to pull the Japanese population together because of the external condemnation.

Only by raising Japanese domestic awareness to the potential growing threats in Asia can Japan move more aggressively to defend and promote its national interests.

Tomorrow: DEL looks at the timing of the visit and Japan's international position in Asia.

Update: For a detailed listing of the 14 Class-A war criminals mentioned above, Kushibo has a great summary. (November 25, 2005)

Comments

[Dan tdaxp]

Very good post on Kouizumi's use of maneuver. He recognizes Japan's weakness is her pacifist nature. So like a child who cannot reach the cookie jar, but can reach his mother's skirt, Kouizumi "reaches" China, who bring Japanese opinion around to him.

Or something like that... apologies for the incoherent analogy :)

[Bill Rice]

Dan,

The analogy is good. I believe you to be correct. You stated my opinion in a more direct way. Koizumi, fresh from a major electoral victory and term limited is looking to move the Japanese opinion from the short-term and looking back orientation, to the future threats and opportunities the Japanese face.

Thank you for your comment.

Kind regards,

Bill Rice
Dawn's Early Light Blog

[Curzon]

Excellent post, and spot on. Look forward to part 2.

[Masagata]

Thanks for leaving your comment on my blog. However I totally disagree with your opinion. I am Japanese national. The main reason Koizumi visited the shrine is because his strong and stable backers are the families of so called war criminals and their comrades memorized at the shrine. The fact of the matter is Japanese have yet reviewed past war. Many of us feel guilty about what our country did in China. Polls says half of the citizens think we did the mistake. Much more than those who don't.

Now even big business people opposed that because his visits affects their marketing in China.

The article 9 which rules disarmament would not be changed by his visits, rather it would make us think that the old militant spirits still remain in our government so we should not let the government use arms not to repeat the same mistakes again.

[Joey Chan]

I am encouraged to know that there are Japanese like you guys out there. That's the hope for Asia and the world. Both world wars were mainly started in Europe. It's widely believe that Japan, the country that tries in every aspect to imitate European countries would repeat the same mistake in Asia. Why would Japan do it, does'nt it see the consequence of these wars? Can the civilization win over the premitive drive in Japan?