By Dawn's Early Light

Blog Pool - Following Condi

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell was not much of a traveler as head of the State Department. This was reportedly due to his desire not to be away from the policy decisions being made by President Bush and by insiders Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney.

Whatever the able Secretary Powell's reasons may have been, Secretary Condoleeza Rice, as the former head of the National Security Council,  has President Bush's ear and feels free to travel abroad, as she is now doing.   

"Asked by reporters whether the presents [joke pocket atlases she gave to the pool reporters] were a portent of heavy travel schedules for the new top U.S. diplomat, Rice smiled and replied: 'You will see.'"

The anecdote aside, Secretary Rice is willing to take US diplomatic goals abroad in order to make the Administration's case. 

First Stop - London
The first leg of her trip was to London to confer with Prime Minister Tony Blair, the US's staunchest ally and America's bridge to the rest of Western Europe.  First on her order of business was to clarify and press home the Adminstration's stance on Iran's nuclear program.   The UK, along with France and Germany, have been attempting to reach a diplomatic solution with Iran, though Iran has continued to press its nuclear program nonetheless.  Let's look at some of her comments:

"Today, asked after a meeting with Foreign Secretary Jack Straw of Britain if the United States might go further and actually attack Iran, Ms. Rice declared: 'The question is simply not on the agenda at this point - we have diplomatic means to do this.'

She added: 'We believe, particularly in regard to the nuclear issue, that while no one ever asks the American president to take all his options, any of his options, off the table, that there are plenty of diplomatic means at our disposal to get the Iranians to finally live up to their international obligations.'

'It is the Iranians that are isolated on this issue - not the United States,' Ms. Rice said."

Several items are important in this message and her visit.  She chose, as her first trip abroad, to meet with PM Tony Blair.  This signifies the importance the US puts on its "Special Relationship" with the UK.  With respect to Iran, I believe the US is signaling its interest to allow the European allies to continue working for a diplomatic solution, and the US has kept from pressing the issue to the UN Security Council.  However, it is important to read what was also said about the US not removing the option to respond militarily, nor was there any mention of Israel's possible response. 

Does Secretary Rice's "we have diplomatic means to do this" imply the US is moving towards supporting the Iranians to bring about their own regime change from within?  This quote (also from the same New York Times article) could be seen in that light.

"'I don't think anybody thinks that the unelected mullahs who run that regime are a good thing for the Iranian people or for the region,' Ms. Rice said to reporters on her plane to London. 'I think our European allies agree that the Iranian regime's human rights behavior and its behavior toward its own population is something to be loathed.'"

This approach, of outwardly encouraging the Iranians to bring about democracy, especially since the Persians have clearly seen democracy in action now next door in Iraq, is possibly the best solution. 

This would lead towards true Iranian democracy without a bloody and long-lasting occupation.

I am anxious to hear what Secretary Rice will say in her next stop, Berlin.

State of the Union Speech - Live Blogging

I have purposely stayed away from reading pre-speech articles and posts online.  I thought it would be more interesting to approach the speech fresh.  I plan to watch it on Fox News.  Brit Hume is my favorite anchor at this point, and I generally like their coverage.

SOTUS - All times are Pacific Standard Time (-8 GMT)

(interesting anecdote: Republicans will have dipped their fingers in a purple ink to show solidarity with Iraqi voters)

6:01 PST - Laura Bush enters the chamber. 

6:02 - President Bush's Cabinet enters (President Bush will be referred to as GWB)

6:05 - GWB is introduced by the Sergeant at Arms to greet the Congress.  Bill Frist behind him seems to be upbeat.  Maybe because he knows he is not running again for Senate and will relinquish his leadership role.

6:07 - I wonder if GWB remembers much of the little personal comments from House and Senate members before he is to give the speech.

6:08 - I like how he ties Ukraine and Iraq together and the freedom they now enjoy. (Big Applause)

6:10 - Focus on freedom both domestically and abroad.

6:12 - US economy the fastest growing of any industrialized nation.  Addresses corporate crime, new jobs, higher home ownership.  This leads into needing a more flexible and competitive economy.  3.2 million more jobs.

6:13 - Budget - Pledges a budget that will hold down spending and cut the deficit in half by 2009.  The Bush administration spent a good deal its first 4 years, a good deal going towards the global war on terror.

6:14 - Education - No Child Left Behind achievement, standards, community college pledge and worker program, while increasing student loan opportunities through Pell Grants.

6:15 - Business - Tort Reform - Promote small businesses by reining in excessive lawsuits.

6:16 - Health Care - Making health care more affordable, with tax credits for low-income workers and building health centers in every poor county.  Expanded Health Saving Accounts coupled with Medical Liability Reform.

6:17 - Energy - Promoting his agenda from 4 years ago, including nuclear energy.  GWB will promote ethanol (key to Red States in the Midwest) and hydrogen fuel cells.  The "US needs to be less dependant on foreign energy".

6:19 - Tax Reform - "Pro growth, easy to understand and fair".  There will be a forthcoming plan... stay tuned.

6:20 - Immigration Reform - GWB is picking back up his failed immigration plan.  While the applause is good, I don't see much chance of Congress acting.  Conservatives are not big fans.

6:21 - Social Security Reform - The big push of GWB II.  Social Security is on its way to bankruptcy (2042 by the CBO).  Time to "save Social Security".  People that are 55 and over, the "Social Security System will not change in any way". 

6:22 - cont.  16 workers for every beneficiary.  This is now down to 3 workers for every one beneficiary.  In the years to come it will be 2 to 1 (see my post).  In 2018, SS will pay out more than it takes in, with a much wider deficit.  2027, the US Government will need $200 billion to keep it in balance.  The Democrats are sounding like the House of Commons with their boos.

6:25 - Challenges the Congress to act now to reform SS rather than waiting until later.  "We must pass reforms that solve the financial problems of SS once and for all."  Laundry list of Congressional ideas.  "All of these ideas are on the table". GWB shows flexibility on SS reform.  He wants it and seems open to working with both sides of the aisle.  I don't think Democrats want to play ball.

6:27 - Must make SS sound for the future without raising payroll taxes.  Must protect current benefit recepients.  Must give younger people time to plan their retirement. Individual accounts are introduced.  Younger workers could set aside some of their 12% to Social Security.  Market rate growth would be superior over the long run to the current SS system.  The money would be the individual's, free to pass along.  (Too bad Obama wouldn't clap for this initiative).  Protections: conservative bond and stock funds, with low Wall Street fees, with options to protect from market swings near retirement, and to make it pay out over time.  By starting gradually, he proposes to allow more to be diverted from SS to the personal accounts for individuals.

6:31 Values/Marriage - GWB supports the Federal Marriage Act, to protect marriage. 

6:32 Culture of Life - without saying "stem cells", GWB is looking to restrict the buying and selling of body parts. 

6:33 Judges - This leads into his belief that courts should not "legislate".  He wants the Congress to give each judge he nominates an "up or down vote".  The Democrats have filibustered many Bush judges.  The Republicans go crazy over this one.

6:35 - Violence & Gangs - A 3-year initiative to reduce gang violence through reaching out to "at-risk" youth.  This will be Laura Bush's new charge in the second administration.  A good move.  She has signalled a lot of interest in helping the nation with raising of boys.

6:36 - AIDS - The Ryan White Act - helping victims with the AIDS disease.  The US must focus on those with the highest rate of infection, African-American men and women.

6:38 - Homeland Security - A thank you to "first responders". 

6:39 - Al Qaeda/Terrorists - Reducing the threat, reducing the number of nations that support terrorism.  A commitment to stay on the offensive. 

6:40 - Military -  Continue to "support the military and give them the tools for victory". 

6:41- Coalitions - NATO assistance, 26 nations with people on the ground in Iraq. Working with Asian countries to stop North Korea's nuclear program.  Pledges to build the coalitions to defeat terrorism in our time.  "The peace we seek will only be achieved by removing the conditions" of ideology of hate and murder.  "Human Freedom" is the only force that can defeat terrorist ideology. (recently proved in Iraqi elections).  Mentions Al-Zarqawi and Al-Zarqawi's hatred of democracy.

6:44 - Free Nations- US policy goal is to spread democracy which will lead to peace.  Allows for different cultural routes to democracy.  Good applause. Women voting in Afghanistan, Palestians voting, Ukraining determination are all good.  The US wants to add to "that story in the coming years".

6:45 - Diplomacy - Rice goes to Europe tomorrow and then the Middle East to promote the Bush foreign policy.  $350 million request for the Palestians for reform (on the eve of Abbas and Sharon meeting in Egypt).

6:46 - Morocco and Bahrain have more freedoms.  Iraq can show the way to a more democratic region in the Middle East.  The US will continue to confront regimes such as Syria about terrorism and move towards freedom.

6:48 - Iran - Working with allies to give up enrichment of uranium and nuclear program and terrorism.  To Persians, "As you stand for your liberty, America stands for you".

6:49 - Iraq - Refrain of fighting terrorism in Iraq so we do not fight it at home.  Iraq is a new partner in the global war on terror.  "We will succeed because the Iraqi people value their own liberty as they showed last Saturday".  GWB rightfully crowing a bit.  275 people are elected to the assembly.  Personal story of a woman in Baghdad who got her family to go vote because the terrorists are weak.  Personal courage was shown by the Iraqis and respect was earned.  Good point, and I hope the Middle East news services report it.  Very impressive. (Big Applause)

6:52 - He honors Safia Talib, who holds up her finger and makes the victory symbol to link back to both the Iraqi vote and the victory they have over repression.  Beautiful symbol. Her dad was killed by Saddam's regime.  She voted in the election.

6:53 - The terrorists are trying to destroy the hope of the Iraqis in free elections.  "Extremists will not overturn the will of the Iraqi people." I think Europe and the left is waking up to this idea, slowly.

6:55 - GWB pledges to train more Iraqi forces and will increasingly move to a "supporting role" when Iraqis can defend and secure their own liberty.  "Iraqis can be certain... our commitment remains firm and unchanging... a safer Iraq will make for a safer America for generations to come."  No timetable for withdrawal.  Will see the job through with honor.

6:58 - Military Benefits- A salute to the military.  There seemed to be emotion in Bush's words about putting people in harm's way. GWB proposes benefits for those injured in conflict.  Honors the dead, Marine Byron Norwood (who died in Fallujah).  His parents are in the audience behind Laura.  Must be difficult to hear her son's words read.  The mom hugs the lady from Iraq.  Beautiful.  Her son died so the Iraqi lady could vote.  Big Applause.

7:01 - Freedom's Power & Unity -  Quotes FDR about dreams and new generations.  Links freedom and liberty to the defeat of fascism and communism.  Our generation's dreams lead to freedom.  Closing of the address on a hopeful note.

Comments - Post Speech

I like the speech.  He covered his domestic policy goals and, by not being too nailed down to the details, leaves open the door to negotiate and compromise.  I liked that he mentioned Iran and North Korea.  The thanking of the family for their loss of their son and the embrace of the Iraqi woman hugging the mother was powerful. Very moving.

I will read the pundits' spin and post my own tomorrow. 

Live Blogging the SOTUS

I will be live blogging the State of the Union Speech tonight, with links to policy proposals and my reactions to Bush's foreign and domestic policy initiatives.

See you tonight at 6:00 pm PST (9:00 pm EST).

Diplomacy Anyone? (Part I)

I spent a couple of hours last night researching and writing a post on Dr. Condolleeza Rice, her Senate confirmation hearings, and how the national and international press covered it.  Then I accidentally deleted it.  Worn out and frustrated, I gave up on the post.

However, I think the topic is too important to walk away from.  There were quite a few gems of thought in Dr. Rice's testimony and statements yesterday that were ignored by the press.  Surprisingly, the international press picked up better on the theme of the hearings because the international press is not so singularly focused on Iraq, WMD, withdrawal timetables, and disclosing "mistakes".  While the New York Times and Los Angeles Times ran with Iraq as the major focus of the hearings, including the shameful comments by my own Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), the Washington Post did a better job of giving greater depth to the issues addressed.  Howard Kurtz, the WP's media critic, sums up some of the national coverage but spends more energy on what they covered rather than what they missed.  But is nevertheless a good quick read.

A Brief Bio on Condi Rice

Dr. Rice, who entered college at age 15 and had her doctorate by age 26, grew up the daughter of an Alabaman Methodist minister.  She was trained as a classical pianist but turned her attention to politics in college when she realized that her piano talent, while impressive, did not have the natural flow of the greats in the field.  Dr. Rice succeeded through her brilliance and determination and through the desegregation of the South, even saying to her father on a visit to DC that one day, she would be in that House, pointing to where she works now. 

Brent Scrowcroft, National Security Adviser to President George H. W. Bush (#41), wisely added her to his staff.  She speaks fluent Russian and has a great grasp of international relations.

At 38, Dr. Rice was the youngest appointed Provost of Stanford University.  Not only was she the youngest but the first African-American and first woman as well.  She was well respected during her time at Stanford.

When George W. Bush (#43) began his run for the presidency, Dr. Rice was tapped to be his foreign affairs adviser.  This led to her current position as National Security Adviser, which she gives up tomorrow to take over the State Department from Colin Powell on Bush's second inauguration.

Getting to the Heart of the Testimony

The text of the hearings can be found here.  You can skip over most of the superfluous senator banter for the first 20 paragraphs or so.  Dr. Rice's opening remarks are well worth reading and demonstrate the focus and importance the Bush Administration will put on restoring alliances and, critically, encouraging and promoting democracy.

Dr. Rice uses her unique background and support of Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement to remind the senators and nation that democracy is everyone's dream and requires effort to achieve and guarantee.

Then as now, it was the same week that America celebrates the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King. It is a time to reflect on the legacy of that great man, on the sacrifices he made, on the courage of the people he led, and on the progress our nation has made in the decade since. I personally am indebted to those who fought and sacrificed in the civil rights movement so that I could be here today. For me, this is a time to remember other heroes as well. I grew up in Birmingham, Alabama, the old Birmingham of Bull Connor and church bombings and voter intimidation, the Birmingham where Dr. King was thrown in jail for demonstrating without a permit. Yet, there was another Birmingham, the city where my parents, John and Angelena Rice, and their friends built a thriving community in the midst of terrible segregation. It would have been so easy for them to give in to despair and to send that message of hopelessness to their children.

But they refused to allow the limits and injustices of their time to limit our horizons. My friends and I were raised to believe that we could do or become anything, that the only limits to our aspirations came from within.  We were taught not to listen to those who said, "No, you can't." The story of Birmingham's parents and teachers and children is a story of the triumph of universal values over adversity.  And those values, a belief in democracy and liberty and the dignity of every life and the rights of every individual, unite Americans of all backgrounds, all faiths, and all colors. They provide us a common cause and a rallying point in difficult times, and they are a source of hope to men and women across the globe who cherish freedom and work to advance freedom's cause.  And in these extraordinary times, it is the duty of all of us, legislators and diplomats and civil servants and citizens, to uphold and advance the values that are core to our identity and that have lifted millions around the world.  One of history's clearest lessons is that America is safer and the world more secure than ever wherever freedom prevails.

These remarks were missed by most of the national media as they were playing the Beltway Gotcha Game of focusing on Iraq.  Iraq is important.  And please don't misunderstand my point.  However, the struggle in Iraq is not about oil, but it is about establishing democracy in the Middle East and changing the entire political paradigm of the region.  Iraq is but one major battle in the Greater War on Terror (GWoT) that must be won to ensure not only Iraqi freedom but to secure ours as well.

In my next post, I will take a more detailed look at where a second Bush Administration will go diplomatically and how it will seek to transform non-democractic states.

Tax Changes?

An interesting article in the Washington Post today on where the wind is blowing in DC over tax reform.  While tax reform would have on the whole been a rather big bore to me out of college (I was never a good economics student), it effects my lively hood.  Taxes incentivize (or deincentivize) every aspect of our economy and has a huge impact on the choices we make, even if we don't realize it.  Tax advantages for certain businesses may make a sector thrive and many people gainfully employed.  Changing those incentives can have huge ripple effects that can hurt those directly employed in an industry on down to everyone that those businesses and employees do business with.

Since I develop affordable housing that relies on tax-exempt debt and federal tax credits, changing the Internal Revenue Code can make investor's no longer want either of the two key pieces I use to finance our developments.

I strongly support the Bush Administration, but on a personal level I am glad to see that my industry will not take a major turn for the worse.  Social Security reform is extremely important to those of my generation that don't see how the pay as you go system can ever support us.  It is also important to take care of the people who have banked on SS being their for them as they near retirement.  Transitioning large social programs are expensive.

It will be an interesting political year in 2005 as Bush begins to spend the last of his political capital.  Let's see what he buys.